爆炸超压场景下危化品社会风险对允许规划人口密度的影响分析*

为研究危化品重大危险源基于社会风险基准的规划管控影响,采用我国标准规定的定量风险评价方法,TNT当量炸药简化方法,针对最大TNT当量炸药、事故发生总累计频率、人口密度分布控制参数等不同工况条件,对比分析国土开发强度的允许人口密度受社会风险约束影响的变化规律。研究结果表明:人口密度指数分布控制参数Nk与Nb的允许取值随最大TNT当量炸药和事故发生总累计频率降低而提高;确定工况下,允许总人口规模受最大TNT当量炸药影响很小;在最大TNT当量炸药大于100 t或事故发生总累计频率小于1×10-8次/a时可按最大事故场景进行规划控制分析。     

探索性数据分析在西藏气候变化趋势研究中的应用

为了减少小样本时间序列资料中个别异常值对气候变化趋势分析的破坏性影响,采用探索性数据分析方法之一的三组耐抗线对西藏近30年气温、云量资料进行线性趋势分析,研究了西藏地区气温和云量的变化趋势及其区域分布,并讨论了二者的相关特征。通过与传统的最小二乘法相比,表明三组耐抗线用于西藏气候变化趋势分析具有明显优势,而用最小二乘法得到的西藏气候变暖估计偏高。分析认为,西藏气候变暖主要由最低气温增高显著所致,最低气温变暖趋势在春、夏季较明显,冬季相对不明显;西藏各地增温幅度在空间分布上不一致,中、西部地区呈较强的增温趋势,东部相对较弱;西藏高原总云量和低云量总体呈减少趋势,总云量和低云量变少分别与西部和中部地区的升温之间存在显著负相关关系。     

IFAS工艺处理南方低碳源污水的泥膜微生物互作规律分析

针对低碳源条件下污水处理问题,开展了活性污泥和生物膜共生系统（IFAS）的实验研究,讨论了低碳源下泥膜两相微生物的赋存特征和互作规律,明确其生态位和对处理效能的影响,通过实际水厂的中试实验,分析生物膜挂膜特性、泥膜活性和菌群的演替规律,对比在不同活性污泥泥龄调控下的泥膜两相中微生物结构和相互作用.结果表明,在变SRT下,反应器内污泥浓度随着SRT的增大而增加;由于SRT-H中微生物浓度远大于SRT-L,因此SRT-H中泥膜之间的竞争关系较SRT-L更激烈,SRT-H中污染物去除效能较SRT-L更低.低碳源进水条件下,IFAS工艺中污泥活性随SRT增大而降低,当低SRT （5 d）条件下,活性污泥硝化、反硝化、聚磷和吸磷速率较高SRT （25 d）分别增加了122%、88%、34%和44%;而SRT对生物膜活性的影响较小,两种SRT下生物膜硝化活性、反硝化活性相差不大.微生物测序分析表明,IFAS工艺功能菌在泥膜两相间会随着SRT的变化而发生富集转移;SRT-L中,因"播种（seeding）"效应而在泥膜两相间发生富集转移的功能菌主要为unclassified_g__Enterobacteriaceae,SRT-H中则主要是Acinetobacter.同时,通过分析优势功能菌分布,发现活性污泥中脱氮菌和聚磷菌之间也存在一定竞争;在进水有机基质匮乏的条件下,脱氮菌的相对丰度明显高于聚磷菌的相对丰度,表明脱氮菌更能适应低碳源条件,所以能在竞争中占据优势地位,这种优势主要体现为好氧反硝化菌相对丰度的增加;此外,泥相的SRT变化会反作用于膜相,使得生物膜的停留时间相应发生改变,从而改变菌群结构,筛选出不同优势菌属,进一步加大差异.     

Association of Coloration Mode with Population Declines and Endangerment in Australian Frogs

Abstract: Successful protection of biodiversity requires increased understanding of the ecological characteristics that predispose some species to endangerment. Theory posits that species with polymorphic or variable coloration should have larger distributions, use more diverse resources, and be less vulnerable to population declines and extinctions, compared with taxa that do not vary in color. We used information from literature on 194 species of Australian frogs to search for associations of coloration mode with ecological variables. In general, species with variable or polymorphic color patterns had larger ranges, used more habitats, were less prone to have a negative population trend, and were estimated as less vulnerable to extinction compared with nonvariable species. An association of variable coloration with lower endangerment was also evident when we controlled statistically for the effects of range size. Nonvariable coloration was not a strong predictor of endangerment, and information on several characteristics is needed to reliably identify and protect species that are prone to decline and may become threatened by extinction in the near future. Analyses based on phylogenetic‐independent contrasts did not support the hypothesis that evolutionary transitions between nonvariable and variable or polymorphic coloration have been accompanied by changes in the ecological variables we examined. Irrefutable demonstration of a role of color pattern variation in amphibian decline and in the dynamics and persistence of populations in general will require a manipulative experimental approach.     

Changing Drivers of Deforestation and New Opportunities for Conservation

Abstract: Over the past 50 years, human agents of deforestation have changed in ways that have potentially important implications for conservation efforts. We characterized these changes through a meta‐analysis of case studies of land‐cover change in the tropics. From the 1960s to the 1980s, small‐scale farmers, with state assistance, deforested large areas of tropical forest in Southeast Asia and Latin America. As globalization and urbanization increased during the 1980s, the agents of deforestation changed in two important parts of the tropical biome, the lowland rainforests in Brazil and Indonesia. Well‐capitalized ranchers, farmers, and loggers producing for consumers in distant markets became more prominent in these places and this globalization weakened the historically strong relationship between local population growth and forest cover. At the same time, forests have begun to regrow in some tropical uplands. These changing circumstances, we believe, suggest two new and differing strategies for biodiversity conservation in the tropics, one focused on conserving uplands and the other on promoting environmental stewardship in lowlands and other areas conducive to industrial agriculture.     

Applying the Declining Population Paradigm: Diagnosing Causes of Poor Reproduction in the Marbled Murrelet

Abstract:  We identified six approaches to diagnosing causes of population declines and illustrate the use of the most general one ("multiple competing hypotheses") to determine which of three candidate limiting factors—food availability, nesting site availability, and nest predation—were responsible for the exceptionally poor reproduction of Marbled Murrelets (  Brachyramphus marmoratus ) in central California. We predicted how six attributes of murrelet demography, behavior, and physiology should be affected by the candidate limiting factors and tested predictions with field data collected over 2 years. The average proportion of breeders, as estimated with radiotelemetry, was low (0.31) and varied significantly between years: 0.11 in 2000 and 0.50 in 2001. Murrelets spent significantly more time foraging in 2000 than in 2001, suggesting that low food availability limited breeding in 2000. In 2001, 50% of radio-marked murrelets nested and 67% of females were in breeding condition, suggesting that enough nest sites existed for much of the population to breed. However, rates of nest failure and nest predation were high (0.84 and 0.67–0.81, respectively) and few young were produced, even when a relatively high proportion of murrelets bred. Thus, we suggest that reproduction of Marbled Murrelets in central California is limited by food availability in some years and by nest predation in others, but apparently is not limited by availability of nesting sites. The multiple-competing-hypotheses approach provides a rigorous framework for identifying causes of population declines because it integrates multiple types of data sets and can incorporate elements of other commonly used approaches.     

The Frequency of Micronuclei among Newborns from Kragujevac, Central Serbia, after NATO Bombing in the Spring of 1999

Kragujevac, as an important industrial and economic center of the region, is now placed on the top of the list of environmentally endangered cities in our country. The aim of this biomonitoring study was to evaluate cytogenetic damage in a sample of newborns from Kragujevac after contamination of the environment entailed by the intensive bombing of the industrial zone of this city in the spring of 1999. The frequency of micronuclei (MN) in peripheral blood lymphocytes in a total of 61 phenotypically healthy newborns was analyzed before and after the NATO bombing. Analysis of micronuclei has been performed using the cytokinesis-block technique (CB MN test). Average MN frequency in lymphocytes of newborns before the bombing (N = 25) was 5.77 ± 0.85/1000 analyzed cells. After the bombing (N = 36), the average frequency of MN increased by a factor of 1.4 (8.11 ± 0.85), compared to the control frequency before the bombing. Statistical difference (p < 0.05) was established by Student's t-test. Our data suggest that such changes in genetic material were a direct consequence of contamination of the living environment.     

Influence of China''s Population Mobility on the Change of Regional Disparity since 1978

In this study, an econometric model about population mobility and economic growth is used to show the unbalanced distribution of population mobility in different region was remarkably related to that of regional economic growth and the large number of movers had a significant influence on regional economic growth and developing disparity. On the basis of this study, we conclude that China's population mobility also had a significant influence on the structure and tendency of regional disparity, and the population mobility enlarged the regional disparity of the whole nation, the East, and the West since the reform, besides the Midst during 1978 to 1987. Furthermore, the population mobility accelerated the increase of regional disparity in the whole nation, the Midst, and the West, but at the same time, retarded that in the East in the period of 1996–2003.     

The Impact of Increased Environmental Stochasticity Due to Climate Change on the Dynamics of Asiatic Wild Ass

Abstract:  Theory proposes that increased environmental stochasticity negatively impacts population viability. Thus, in addition to the directional changes predicted for weather parameters under global climate change (GCC), the increase in variance of these parameters may also have a negative effect on biodiversity. As a case study, we assessed the impact of interannual variance in precipitation on the viability of an Asiatic wild ass ( Equus hemionus ) population reintroduced in Makhtesh Ramon Nature Reserve, Israel. We monitored the population from 1985 to 1999 to determine what environmental factors affect reproductive success. Annual precipitation during the year before conception, drought conditions during gestation, and population size determined reproductive success. We used the parameters derived from this model to assess population performance under various scenarios in a Leslie matrix type model with demographic and environmental stochasticity. Specifically, we used a change in the precipitation regime in our study area to formulate a GCC scenario and compared the simulated dynamics of the population with a no-change scenario. The coefficient of variation in population size under the global change scenario was 30% higher than under the no-change scenario. Minor die-offs (≥15%) following droughts increased extinction probability nearly 10-fold. Our results support the idea that an increase in environmental stochasticity due to GCC may, in itself, pose a significant threat to biodiversity.     

Concurrent Chemical and Histological Analyses: Are They Compatible?

Bivalves are often used as sentinel organisms in monitoring programmes for trace organic contaminants. the animal's physiological state may be important in interpreting trends in contaminant body burden. Simultaneous evaluation of physiological state and organic contaminant concentration in bivalves typically involves removal of a lipid-rich cross-section of the body mass for histopathological and/or gonadal analysis.

In this study, the bias introduced by this technique in the final trace organic concentrations, e.g. of polynuclear aromatic hydrocarbons, chlorinated pesticides and polychlorinated biphenyls, are evaluated on five different size groups of oysters. As a test case, we evaluated the use of this method in the NOAA's Status & Trends Mussel Watch (NS&T) Programme. the average biases introduced by this technique in the final trace organic concentrations in Gulf of Mexico oysters have been increasing since 1986 as a consequence of a continuous decrease in the size of the individuals sampled.