Applying a problem-solving scenario in risk communication of low probability events

ABSTRACT

This study proposes a problem-solving scenario approach to enhance risk communication of low probability events, and aims to understand the effects of such an approach. An experiment was conducted in order to understand the comparative effects of presenting a casualty case with photos and demonstrating a problem scenario via an animation of participants’ anticipated responses to a simulated life-or-death choice. Forty-eight and 55 valid samples were collected respectively for two groups of participants. The results reveal a higher proportion of appropriate responses in the group presented with a problem scenario. Gender difference is found in the group exposed to a problem scenario - a larger percentage of males appear to respond more appropriately when presented with a life-threatening scenario without having being told what has happened. Having the ability to drive an automobile, which is presumably relevant to participants’ responses in a scenario associated with driving, does not, however, appear to differ significantly between the groups. The finding suggests that using a problem-solving scenario approach, compared with merely offering potential consequences of risks is more effective in stimulating appropriate responses to prevent casualty for information users.     

台风过程珠江三角洲边界层特征及其对空气质量的影响

利用2006年7月珠江三角洲南北向3个点为期1个月的小球测风、低空探空资料及9个地面气象站逐时风向、风速资料,通过计算和分析风、温梯度资料,研究了台风过程珠江三角洲边界层特征及其对珠江三角洲地区空气质量的影响,重点分析了台风下沉气流影响导致灰霾天气期间的边界层结构.结果表明,2006年7月珠江三角洲地区空气质量主要受2个台风过程影响,当台风中心位于粤东及福建以东海域时,台风外围的下沉气流会对珠江三角洲地区的空气质量产生强烈影响,出现灰霾天气.在台风登陆前出现灰霾日时,珠江三角洲被均压场所控制,大部分区域为静小风,沿海地区会出现局地的海陆风,边界层风速较小.在200~500m低空会出现逆温层,同时最大混合层高度迅速下降到不足500m.     

Adsorption‐desorption hysteresis of α‐endosulfan in tropical soils using isotopic techniques

This study was designed to evaluate the adsorption‐desorption hysteresis of endosulfan (1,2,3,4, 7,7‐hexachlorobicyclo[2,2,1]‐2‐heptene‐5,6‐bisoxymethylene sulfite) in selected tropical soils. Two major tropical soils from Thailand were selected, Rangsit lowland soils (Rangsit series) and Phrabat upland soils (Pakchong series). The soil types were sub‐divided into plow soils, 0–20cm depth from the surface, and subsoils, 20–40cm depth. Adsorption was determined in 24h batch equilibrium, with five different concentrations of ¹⁴C endosulfan ranging from 1.04 to 16.64 ng/mg soils. Four successive desorption studies were performed continuously after three adsorption concentrations, 24h for each successive. Adsorption coefficient values (K _ads) as determined by Freundlich model ranged from 0.02 to 0.14 and found to be higher in Rangsit soils as expected when compared with Phrabat soils. Desorption was hysteresis in every desorption study. Desorption coefficient values (K _des) were higher than adsorption (K _des).     

Energy transformations in two tropical Oxbow lakes

The flow and pattern of energy utilization in two tropical ecosystems where polyculture of fishes was practiced were studied. The rates of organic production made by the two tropical natural aquatic systems (oxbow lakes) were studied for two annual cycles. The study of utilization of energy in two tropical lakes revealed that herbivores were more efficient in energy utilization than autotrophs. The energy available in these systems was supplied by allochthonous source. Silver carp and grass carp were found to be most efficient in conversion of energy in the grazing food chain of the lake. The efficiency of the system to fish production was found to be 0.06 (OL-I) ?0.05% (OL-II) of the total available solar radiation. Various forms of life are all accompanied by energy changes, in the studied lakes were found to form a food web.     

Comparative sensitivity of three life stages of the tropical mysid,Metamysidopsis insularis to six toxicants

Test protocols citing mysids as a standard test species often recommend juveniles (48 h) as the most appropriate life stage for testing. Acute toxicity tests were conducted with six standard toxicants, with three life stages of Metamysidopsis insularis; juveniles (48 h), late juveniles (7–12 days) and adults (>13 days), to determine whether there were significant differences in the sensitivity between life stages. Three of the compounds tested (sodium dodecyl sulphate, potassium dichromate, and potassium chloride) showed a significantly higher 96 h-LC₅₀ for the adults when compared to the juveniles and late juveniles. Four of the compounds tested showed significantly higher 24 h- and 48h-LC₅₀ for the adults when compared to both the late juveniles and juveniles. Twenty-four hour-LC₅₀ values for juveniles were also significantly higher than the 48 and 96 h values. However, for the late juveniles and adults this was only true of a few compounds. Further, the 48 and 96 h values were statistically similar. Therefore, for M. insularis it may be appropriate to conduct acute toxicity test with juvenile for a 48 h period.     

Psychological stress and marginalization as indicators of human carrying capacity in deforesting areas

SUMMARY

A scheme in which psychological factors are considered in effective forest management planning is proposed. A central role is played by human carrying capacity, the resilience of people to deal with the consequences of environmental degradation. Stress and marginalization are taken as indicators of human carrying capacity. A study in Côte d'Ivoire is described in which psychological stress and marginalization were studied in individuals from environments which show different degrees of degradation. Three related hypotheses are proposed: first that individuals living in or near a degrading forest are more stressed and marginalized than individuals in a reference group living in Abidjan; second that people living near the forest with the most sustained and severe degradation would be more stressed and marginalized; finally, that members of autochthonous cultural groups show higher stress and marginalization levels than members of migrant groups. The results of our study showed that people living near the degraded forest were more stressed but not marginalized unless the degradation was severe and sustained. Females were more stressed than males and members of both sexes from autochthonous cultural groups were more prone to stress and marginalization than members of migrant groups.     

Explaining the status and scope of ecotourism development for livelihood security: Andaman and Nicobar Islands,India

In the past few decades, the tourism sector has emerged as a significant economic activity in island nations, particularly in tropical regions. However, most of the tropical islands face similar constraints, viz., threat to natural resources, chances of biopiracy, impact of climate change, population pressure and unsystematic tourist management. Ecotourism, as a concept, envisages promoting tourism with due regard to natural environment and ecological sanctity of the destination. Archipelago of Andaman and Nicobar (A&N) Islands is one of picturesque geographical creation in the Bay of Bengal, India, in tropical region and is an emerging tourist destination. It was observed that around 2.2 lakhs national and international tourists visit the A&N Islands annually. With tourism sector as an integral component, the service sector with share of 56% in gross state domestic product dominates the island economy. An analysis based on primary survey from various stakeholders associated with the sector revealed that factors such as economy in travel and boarding, availability of tourist facilities and comfort, safety, etc. were major factors that determined the choice of the tourists that visited the islands. The weights given by the tourists to the natural sites in A&N Islands revealed that the landscape topped list with 91.6% score by the visitors followed by beaches (91.3%), scenery (86.5%), reserved forests (84.6%), limestone caves (66.3%) and coral sights (65.8%). Coral sites were given weight of 65.8% of tourists, cultural and historical tourism products 85.4% for the natural history. Similarly, historical sites (83.7%), museums (78.6%) and heritage sites (72.8%) were also among top cites attraction. Recent initiatives by the Andaman administration gives due to care to sustainably develop the tourism infrastructure of the islands to harness the potential of eco-friendly tourism in this picturesque tourist haven.     

云南地区种子植物区系过渡性地理分布格局的群落尺度分析

探索植物区系过渡性的地理分布格局,对于理解植物区系的起源、迁移和分布具有重要意义。本研究利用620个植物群落样方,探讨了云南地区植物区系过渡性的地理分布格局及其生物地理意义。研究结果表明,随着纬度、海拔的升高,温带区系成分所占比重呈显著递增趋势,但在经度梯度上呈递减趋势;热带区系成分所占的比重在地理梯度上则表现为相反的变化趋势。地形格局较好地反映了区系成分的地理分布格局;热带区系成分所占比重与温带区系成分所占比重的比值从南到北呈递减趋势。区系过渡性的低值主要出现在滇西北地区和包括滇西南、滇东南与滇南在内的云南南部地区,而高值主要出现在云南中部地区和中海拔地区,这可能与区系迁移过程和海拔梯度有关。热带区系成分在云南地区基带植被中占主导地位;热带区系成分占优势地位的区域主要集中在低海拔地区,占云南土地面积的60％左右,而温带区系成分占优势地位的区域主要集中在高海拔的北部地区,占土地总面积的40％左右。本研究从基带植被的区系性质和温、热带植物区系成分占优势地位的土地面积的构成证实了云南地区可能是一个“热带山原”的假说。区系过渡性随着年平均温度的升高,呈先增强后减弱的单峰格局。当年均温在13．1℃左右时,出现区系平衡点。相对水平分布而言,云南地区植被的垂直分布可能更值得注意。     

Changes in Avian and Plant Communities of Aspen Woodlands over 12 Years after Livestock Removal in the Northwestern Great Basin

Abstract: Riparian and quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides) woodlands are centers of avian abundance and diversity in the western United States, but they have been affected adversely by land use practices, particularly livestock grazing. In 1990, cattle were removed from a 112,500‐ha national wildlife refuge in southeastern Oregon. Thereafter, we monitored changes in vegetation and bird abundance in years 1–3 (phase 1) and 10–12 (phase 2) in 17 riparian and 9 snow‐pocket aspen plots. On each 1.5‐ha plot, we sampled vegetation in 6 transects. Three times during each breeding season, observers recorded all birds 50 m to each side of the plot's 150‐m centerline for 25 minutes. We analyzed data with multivariate analysis of variance and paired t tests with p values adjusted for multiple comparisons. In both periods, riparian and snow‐pocket aspen produced extensive regeneration of new shoots ( stems/ha and 7079 stems/ha, respectively). By phase 2, a 64% increase in medium‐diameter trees in riparian stands indicated successful recruitment into the overstory, but this pattern was not seen in snow‐pocket stands, where the density of trees was over 2 times greater. By phase 2 in riparian and snow‐pocket stands, native forb cover had increased by 68% and 57%, respectively, mesic shrub cover had increased by 29% and 58%, and sagebrush cover had decreased by 24% and 31%. Total avian abundance increased by 33% and 39% in riparian and snow‐pocket aspen, respectively, ground or understory nesters increased by 133% and 67% and overstory nesters increased by 34% and 33%. Similarly, ground or understory foragers increased by 25% and 32%, aerial foragers by 55% and 57%, and overstory foragers by 66% and 43%. We interpreted the substantial regeneration of aspen shoots, increased densities of riparian forbs and shrubs, and increased avian abundances as a multitrophic‐level response to the total removal of livestock and as substantial movement toward recovery of biological integrity.     

Assessing self-organization of plant communities—A thermodynamic approach

Thermodynamics is a powerful tool for the study of system development and has the potential to be applied to studies of ecological complexity. Here, we develop a set of thermodynamic indicators including energy capture and energy dissipation to quantify plant community self-organization. The study ecosystems included a tropical seasonal rainforest, an artificial tropical rainforest, a rubber plantation, and two Chromolaena odorata (L.) R.M. King & H. Robinson communities aged 13 years and 1 year. The communities represent a complexity transect from primary vegetation, to transitional community, economic plantation, and fallows and are typical for Xishuangbanna, southwestern China. The indicators of ecosystem self-organization are sensitive to plant community type and seasonality, and demonstrate that the tropical seasonal rainforest is highly self-organized and plays an important role in local environmental stability via the land surface thermal regulation. The rubber plantation is at a very low level of self-organization as quantified by the thermodynamic indicators, especially during the dry season. The expansion of the area of rubber plantation and shrinkage of tropical seasonal rainforest would likely induce local surface warming and a larger daily temperature range.