1990-2015年世界能源时空演变特征研究

能源系统是从能源开采、能源生产到能源运输,再到终端消费或储备全过程的系统工程.能源在区域之间的运输促进了世界能源网络的形成,随着时间推移和各种外部因素的变化,能源空间格局也随着发生剧烈的变化.基于1990-2015年195个国家能源生产消费数据和贸易矩阵,采用双因子趋势图法和社会网络分析法分析世界能源生产、消费与运输的时空演变特征.结果表明:①世界能源的生产主要分布在中东、亚太、前苏联、北美、中南美和西北非,原油、天然气和煤炭的空间格局也存在差异.②世界能源消费增长存在波动,高消费量高增长率的区域分布在亚太和新兴经济体,欧洲能源消费放缓,北美、日本、俄罗斯消费出现负增长趋势.③从世界能源运输来看,能源出口集中在前苏联、中东、西北非和中南美地区,能源进口集中在亚太及欧美地区;世界能源运输整体流动性增强,中东和北非局部时期存在波动;能源生产国外向中心性不断攀升,亚太和新兴经济体内向中心性增长最快;形成“核心-次核心-节点”的层级结构,欧洲地位下降,亚太作用增强,多元化趋势显现;能源运输存在8条主要路径.④经济增长、政治局势、国家关系以及能源开发技术都对世界能源时空格局产生重大影响,各国也纷纷通过能源来源多样化、双多边合作、能源战略储备、新能源开发保证自身能源安全.随着页岩油气开发技术、新能源技术的发展普及,尤其是煤炭消费在世界范围的放缓锐减,未来世界能源空间格局也即将发生重大调整.     

基于GIS的城镇建筑物易损性分析与应用研究

利用城镇地籍数据信息,基于GIS软件进行建筑物易损性和居民安全风险分析与应用研究。通过对某县城中最具代表性的一个街坊建筑物的易损性分析和居民安全风险分析实例应用研究,重点讨论并实现了利用现有数字化地籍图、城镇地籍数据库及土地调查记录等信息;并结合建筑物震害损失评估模型和人员伤亡预测方法,完成不同结构类型的建筑物在不同地震烈度条件下的破坏造成的经济损失评估和人员伤亡程度的预测,对城市防灾减灾进行辅助决策支持与评估。     

重庆市碳排放现状及低碳经济发展战略研究

低碳经济以低能耗、低污染、低排放为基础,是当今世界减缓温室气体排放、应对气候变化的最佳经济发展模式。本文初步估算了重庆市包括二氧化碳排放总量、人均排放量、万元GDP排放强度等碳排放现状,分析了近年来全市碳排放减缓的趋势以及二氧化碳排放来源解析的结果,探讨了重庆市低碳发展的良好基础,提出了重庆市发展低碳经济的战略取向、战略目标、战略重点和战略措施建议,描绘了重庆市低碳发展的行动路线图,认为低碳经济是重庆市转变经济发展方式、实现可持续发展的必然选择。     

An approach to improve the Austrian Radon Potential Map by Bayesian statistics

A Radon Potential Map as well as a mean indoor Radon Concentration Map is available from the Austrian National Radon Project (1992-2002). These maps are based on the average Radon Potential/Concentration within every municipality and they sort municipalities into three radon ‘risk’ classes. This is a convenient way for the administration, but it does not describe the real radon risk distribution within a municipality because of the often inhomogeneous geological situation. Therefore, a combination of indoor radon data with all relevant parameters such as house type, storey and ventilation rates along with geological information should be used to improve the existing radon maps. The method, described here, uses Bayes' theory to combine the Radon Potential derived from indoor radon measurements with information from geology. The existing Radon Potential Map was improved by using available soil gas radon data at certain geological units and extrapolated transfer factors. The modifications of the map are shown and several problems arising with the application of this technique are discussed.     

Heat map visualization of complex environmental and biomarker measurements

Over the past decade, the assessment of human systems interactions with the environment has permeated all phases of environmental and public health research. We are invoking lessons learned from the broad discipline of Systems Biology research that focuses primarily on molecular and cellular networks and adapting these concepts to Systems Exposure Science which focuses on interpreting the linkage from environmental measurements and biomonitoring to the expression of biological parameters. A primary tool of systems biology is the visualization of complex genomic and proteomic data using “heat maps” which are rectangular color coded arrays indicating the intensity (or amount) of the dependent variable. Heat maps are flexible in that both the x-axis and y-axis can be arranged to explore a particular hypothesis and allow a fast overview of data with a third quantitative dimension captured as different colors. We are now adapting these tools for interpreting cumulative and aggregate environmental exposure measurements as well as the results from human biomonitoring of biological media including blood, breath and urine. This article uses existing EPA measurements of environmental and biomarker concentrations of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) to demonstrate the value of the heat map approach for hypothesis development and to link back to stochastic and mixed effects models that were originally used to assess study results.     

Recent Changes in Soil Total Phosphorus in the Everglades: Water Conservation Area 3

We assessed recent changes in the distribution of soil total phosphorus (TP) in Water Conservation Area 3 (WCA-3) of the Everglades. Soil cores were collected in 1992 and 2003 at 176 sites. To reflect hydrologic boundaries within the system, WCA-3 was divided into three zones (3AN, 3AS, and 3B). Total P was mapped on both a mass (TPm) and a volumetric basis (TPv) to determine if spatial distributions varied depending on the choice of units. Interpolated maps for both years showed that the highest levels of TPm were located in 3AN and in boundary areas of all zones that received surface water inputs of P from canals. Increases in TPm were greatest in central 3AN in an area adjacent to the Miami Canal that received inputs from a water control structure. Interpolated maps for TPv illustrated that a hotspot present in 1992 had disappeared by 2003. The highest levels of TPv in 2003 were located in northwestern 3AN, a region of WCA-3 that has been chronically overdrained and burned in 1999. From 1992 to 2003, increases in TPm were observed for 53% of the area of WCA-3, while only 16% of WCA-3 exhibited increases in TPv. In 1992, approximately 21% of WCA-3 had TPm concentrations in the 0–10 cm layer >500 mg kg⁻¹, indicating P enrichment beyond historic levels. Eleven years later, 30% of the area of WCA-3 had TPm >500 mg kg⁻¹. This indicated that during this period, the area of WCA-3 with enriched TPm concentrations increased about one % year⁻¹.     

基于化学分析和气象信息综合表征大气铅污染

对天津市1998年11月-1999年2月期间21个玻璃纤维滤膜大气颗粒物样品,采用稀酸浸出法溶解后,测量了ρ(Pb),w(Pb)和同位素丰度比206Pb/207Pb.采用IDAS软件对样品进行聚类分析,分组的结果表明,在不同的天气条件下,各种污染源排放的贡献也不同.48 h反向风迹图提供了大量详实的气象信息,结合ρ(TSP),ρ(Pb),w(Pb)和同位素丰度比的数据,可用于综合表征铅污染的状况.      

边着色图上单色三角形个数的一种证明

通过赋权的方法讨论了单色三角形数量的范围,给出一种较简单的证明,介绍了板植图的存在性。     

水利工程高危作业人因评价体系中的认知图理论研究

为加强水利工程施工安全管理和预防事故发生,通过建立认知地图对高危作业中的人为因素进行了分析。在修订的人为因素分析与分类系统(HFACS)对高危作业人为因素进行识别的基础上,通过引入认知地图理论,建立了人为因素的因果认知地图并进行头节点、尾节点和中心性分析;提出认知广度和认知深度概念,通过数理统计各人为因素出现的频数和采用G1法求其各因素权重,建立二维平面认知地图,对事故的关键影响因素进行了识别和分析。结果表明:教育培训、作业环境和人员健康状况是导致高危作业事故最核心因素,该方法能有效对水利工程人为因素进行分析研究,具有一定适用性。