基于TVR的腐蚀油气管道失效概率及安全寿命研究

为避免因腐蚀导致油气管道失效,针对因管道特性和腐蚀尺寸的不确定性使得管道剩余强度成为概率模型的特点,建立了腐蚀管道强度损失随机模型;借助可靠性理论,通过分析管道腐蚀进程的时变性特点,将管道系统由损伤积累和抗力衰减导致的剩余强度随机化;提出基于穿越率的腐蚀油气管道失效评定及安全寿命预测方法。研究结果表明:腐蚀速率和运行压力对管道失效概率及安全寿命影响显著,管道尺寸影响适中,而相关系数和拉伸强度影响较小;若腐蚀速率Va=0.2 mm/a,VL=10 mm/a或局部腐蚀缺陷半径达到管道壁厚的0.5倍时,建议作为重点风险段监测并检修。所建方法是对腐蚀油气管道运营监控和风险评估的有益补充。     

川东北低山丘陵区细颗粒物主要相关因素和季节变化分析——以南充主城区为例

基于中国空气质量在线监测分析平台和全球天气精准预报网的大气质量和气象数据,以四川盆地东北低山丘陵区典型城市南充市主城区为例,检验了细颗粒物(PM_(2.5))浓度的概率密度分布,发现其接近对数正态分布,由相关分析确定了PM_(2.5)浓度的主要相关因素为CO、NO_2(相关系数r分别为0.76、0.55,P0.01),再通过对2014年1月—2016年6月的日数据的逐步回归筛选出最优的回归指标和模拟方程(决定系数R_(adj)~2为0.68,P0.05),2016年7月—2017年6月的数据验证表明模拟效果较好(拟合优度为0.64,相对误差15.48%);最后根据时序插值、浓度和IAQI(PM_(2.5))的时段均值发现PM_(2.5)浓度在年际上有降低趋势;在季节上由高到低依次为冬季、春季、秋季、夏季;PM_(2.5)浓度在1月和6月分别呈现出年内的峰值和谷值,5、10月出现了阶段性峰值,尤其是5月;IAQI(PM_(2.5))的季节变化与浓度变化规律相似;且PM_(2.5)与PM_(10)比值的均值为0.67,表明现阶段南充市主城区大气污染物中细颗粒物占有较大比重。     

基于总磷的长湖水环境容量核算

在对长湖流域水资源状况、水质现状、水文条件调查的基础上,根据水质目标的要求,利用纳污水体的概率型水环境容量模型,对基于总磷的长湖水环境容量进行了核算。结果表明：长湖的水环境容量是动态变化的,而模型的选取和参数的取值对概率型水环境容量的计算非常关键。通过计算分析得到长湖磷的概率水环境容量为：19％丰水期：41．9t／a-45．9t／a;49％平水期：31．8t／a～41．9Va;32％枯水期：11．8t／a～31．8t／a。     

基于改进RPS的共因失效模型及在安全仪表系统中的应用研究

基于安全仪表系统共因失效机理的定性分析,在单一冲击下的RPS模型基础上,以泊松分布作为冲击的先验分布,建立了多冲击下考虑共因失效的安全仪表系统可靠性模型;采用基于专家经验和估计的方法,对模型参数进行估计;并通过定量分析确定出影响系统共因失效的最大冲击因子,为降低系统共因失效对可靠性的影响提供辅助决策支持。将改进的多冲击RPS模型的可靠性分析结果与β模型和PDS模型进行比较,验证了该模型的工程准确性。     

二氧化碳捕集技术进展研究

CO2排放主要源于化石燃料燃烧过程,减少化石燃料燃烧过程排放的CO2对于降低大气中CO2浓度具有重要意义.针对燃烧过程排放的CO2,分析了CO2捕集技术的原理、工艺流程、优劣性和适用性,并归纳了CO2捕集技术的研发趋势.结果表明:CO2捕集技术主要包括燃料燃烧前捕集、燃烧后捕集和富氧燃烧.为了有效缓解因CO2排放导致的一系列环境及社会问题,后续需要进一步降低CO2捕集技术的成本以及通过立法以约束企业的CO2排放行为.     

钢渣湿法捕获CO_2反应机制研究

以炼钢过程中排放的固体废弃物钢渣为碳捕获剂,进行了钢渣湿法捕获烟气CO2工艺的实验研究。通过分析钢渣的组成成份及反应机理,研究液固比、反应温度、反应时间、pH值及反应产物等主要参数对钢渣湿法碳捕获状况的影响。实验证明,通过合理的设计和适当的操作,可使钢渣湿法碳捕获效率达60%以上,具有一定的应用价值。     

LY12CZ铝合金腐蚀损伤的概率分布及其变化规律

采用铜加速乙酸盐雾试验方法对LY12CZ铝合金腐蚀行为进行了研究。结果表明：腐蚀深度服从Gumbel分布、正态分布、威布尔分布和对数正态4种分布。选用正态分布描述了LY12CZ铝合金在盐雾环境下的腐蚀损伤的分布特性,并得出了不同置信度和可靠度下腐蚀深度随时间变化的规律。     

电厂二氧化碳捕捉技术对比研究

由于全球温室效应的不断加剧,发展二氧化碳捕捉技术变得十分必要.通过分析燃烧前捕捉、燃烧后捕捉和富氧燃烧捕捉三种二氧化碳捕捉方式流程及其特点,指出三种不同的二氧化碳捕捉技术的发展现状以及应用途径.通过具体对比现有二氧化碳捕捉技术的工作原理以及优缺点,针对现有的几种具体的二氧化碳捕捉技术进行详细的分析,积极应用各种物理、化...     

Minimizing leakage from a smelter off-gas system by enhanced control

The off-gas handling system is a vital component of a smelter and it is essential that it operates in accordance with environmental regulations. A key feature of the off-gas management system is maintaining a slightly negative system pressure to prevent gas leakage, such as SO₂, out into the work and external environments. To enhance sustainable development, there is also growing interest in capturing and reusing the significant amount of heat and CO₂ contained within off-gas. The potential incorporation of heat and CO₂ recovery systems places importance on enhancing control to minimize the risk of both gas leakage and disturbance of the smelting process. With these requirements in mind, an easily implementable feedforward control enhancement to existing control schemes is proposed to help provide improved performance.     

Geological CO2 Storage as a Climate Change Mitigation Option

Carbon dioxide (CO₂₎ capture and storage is increasingly being considered as an important climate change mitigation option. This paper explores provisions for including geological CO₂ storage in climate policy. The storage capacity of Norway's Continental Shelf is alone sufficient to store a large share of European CO₂ emissions for many decades. If CO₂ is injected into oil reservoirs there is an additional benefit in terms of enhanced oil recovery. However, there are significant technical and economic challenges, including the large investment in infrastructure required, with related economies of scale properties. Thus CO₂ capture, transportation and storage projects are likely to be more economically attractive if developed on a large scale, which could mean involving two or more nations. An additional challenge is the risk of future leakages from storage sites, where the government must take on a major responsibility. In institutional and policy terms, important challenges are the unsettled status of geological CO₂ storage as a policy measure in the Kyoto Protocol, lack of relevant reporting and verification procedures, and lack of decisions on how the option should be linked to the flexibility mechanisms under the Kyoto Protocol. In terms of competitiveness with expected prices for CO₂ permits under Kyoto Protocol trading, the relatively high costs per tonne of CO₂ stored means that geological CO₂ storage is primarily of interest where enhanced oil recovery is possible. These shortcomings and uncertainties mean that companies and governments today only have weak incentives to venture into geological CO₂ storage.