两种定性天气预报模型的对比分析

以南京１９６５～１９９４ 年４ 月平均气温作为预报量, 选取前期５００ ｈ Ｐａ 月平均高度场相关因子, 分别建立了事件概率回归预报模型和神经网络预报模型。通过对比分析发现, 在同等条件下,由于神经网络方法能更好地反映预报量与预报因子间的非线性关系, 并能有效避免采用事件概率回归方法预报建模时, 对预报因子分级造成信息损失的缺点。因此, 其拟合和预报效果明显优于传统的概率回归预报方法     

基于敏感目标被访问概率法的长江口水域溢油风险区划研究

以上海市长江口主要环境敏感目标为研究对象,利用Oilmap被访问概率模型计算青草沙集中式饮用水水源地、东滩湿地国家级自然保护区、城市岸线旅游区域、渔业捕捞区等长江口主要生态环境敏感目标的溢油风险概率,构建了基于溢油发生概率、影响因子、气象水文条件、敏感目标敏感系数的溢油风险指数体系,形成了长江口溢油风险二级分区区划。根据溢油风险指数,划定上海长江口水域溢油高风险区、较高风险区、中风险区、低风险区4个级别,各风险级别面积分别为335、2 375、5 695和3 068 km²。针对长江口水源地溢油风险防控区等4类重点防控区,提出分区分级分类防控要求建议,明确不同分区首要防护目标,并按分级管控要求提出不同区域预警防控等级。

     

Large-sample-size assessment of socioeconomic predictors of community-level resource management occurrence

Community-level resource management efforts are cornerstones in ensuring sustainable use of natural resources. Yet, understanding how community characteristics influence management practices remains contested. With a sample size of ≥725 communities, we assessed the effects of key community (i.e., socioeconomic) characteristics (human population size and density, market integration, and modernization) on the probability of occurrence of fisheries management practices, including gear, species, and spatial restrictions. The study was based in Solomon Islands, a Pacific Island country with a population that is highly dependent on coastal fisheries. People primarily dwell in small communities adjacent to the coastline dispersed across 6 island provinces and numerous smaller islands. We used nationally collected data in binomial logistic regression models to examine the likelihood of management occurrence, given socioeconomic context of communities. In contrast to prevailing views, we identified a positive and statistically significant association between both human population size and market integration and all 3 management practices. Human population density, however, had a statistically significant negative association and modernization a varied and limited association with occurrence of all management practices. Our method offers a way to remotely predict the occurrence of resource management practices based on key socioeconomic characteristics. It could be used to improve understanding of why some communities conduct natural resource management activities when statistical patterns suggest they are not likely to and thus improve understanding of how some communities of people beat the odds despite limited market access and high population density.     

TNT当量法预测某石化设备爆炸后果评价

以烃化反应器为模拟发生泄漏事故源,泄漏的物料形成爆炸性气体,发生爆炸事故,采用TNT当量法预测爆炸事故后果,通过公式,计算出因爆炸冲击波导致肺出血而引起死亡的概率为0.5的半径.     

基于灰色模糊集理论的船舶搁浅概率分析

为深入分析船舶搁浅概率,在随机性和模糊性的基础上,考虑了系统的灰色性,建立灰色模糊集,模部为正态模糊数,灰部以系统的灰度熵来表示。建立了船舶航行计划失效造成船舶搁浅的事件树,构造了船舶搁浅概率的灰色模糊隶属度函数,根据各基本事件的失效概率来分析因航行计划失效造成船舶搁浅事故的灰色模糊概率分布情况。结果表明,与经典概率论和模糊概率相比,采用灰色模糊概率更能全面地反映船舶搁浅概率的可能性与不确定性。并采用RRW法和RAW法对基本事件的重要度进行了分析,找出了事故主要诱因及对降低事故风险价值最大的基本事件。     

海上搜救中发现概率的研究

对海上搜救中发现概率及其影响因素进行了研究。重点探讨了影响发现概率的核心因素扫海宽度和指数探测函数的得出和应用,并提出了扫海宽度的修正模型和指数探测函数的修正模型。以期为实际的海上搜救行动提供更加准确的理论依据,推动我国海上搜救辅助决策系统的开发与应用,最终促进搜寻成功概率的提高,保障海上员生命财产安全。     

Review: recent advances in biogas purifying technologies

Biomethane production through biogas upgrading is a promising renewable energy for some industries which could be part of the equilibrium needed with fossil fuels consumption to achieve a sustainable society. This paper presents a comprehensive list of biogas upgrading technologies focused on carbon dioxide removal as well as recent advances reported by researcher with wide expertise in this topic. Additionally, an extensive costs–performance comparison among the technologies studied is discussed. Among the different alternatives, chemical scrubbing stood out to achieve high biomethane purities while cryogenic technologies proved to be effective against methane losses. Regarding the different costs, water scrubbing and membrane separation seem to be the most affordable techniques.     

Synthesis, characterization and experimental investigation of Cu-BTC as CO2 adsorbent from flue gas

Porous Cu-BTC material was synthesized by the solvothermal method. Powder X-ray diffraction (PXRD) was used to test the phase purity of the synthesized material and investigate its structural stability under the influence of flue gas components. The thermal stability of the material was determined through thermal gravimetric (TG) analysis. Scanning electron microscopy (SEM) was employed to study the microstructure of the material. Cu-BTC was demonstrated not only to have high CO₂ adsorption capacity but also good selectivity of CO₂ over N₂ by means of packed bed tests. The adsorption capacity of Cu-BTC for CO₂ was about 69 mL/g at 22°C. The influence of the main flue gas components on the CO₂ capacity of the material were discussed as well.     

Techno-Economic Study of CO2 Capture from an Existing Cement Plant Using MEA Scrubbing

Carbon dioxide is the major greenhouse gas responsible for global warming. Man-made CO₂ emissions contribute approximately 63% of greenhouse gases and the cement industry is responsible for approximately 5% of CO₂ emissions emitting nearly 900 kg of CO₂ per 1000 kg of cement. CO₂ from a cement plant was captured and purified to 98% using the monoethanolamine (MEA) based absorption process. The capture cost was $51 per tonne of CO₂ captured, representing approximately 90% of total cost. Steam was the main operating cost representing 39% of the total capture cost. Switching from coal to natural gas reduces CO₂ emissions by about 18%. At normal load, about 36 MW of waste heat is available for recovery to satisfy the parasitic heat requirements of MEA process; however, it is very difficult to recover.     

Control Issues in the Design of a Gas Turbine Cycle for CO2 Capture

This article is concerned with control issues related to the design of a semi-closed O ₂/CO ₂ gas turbine cycle for CO ₂ capture. Some control strategies and their interaction with the process design are discussed. One control structure is implemented on a dynamic simulation model using a predictive controller, and simulations assess the performance and compare its merits with a conventional PI structure. The results indicate that it can be advantageous for operability to allow a varying (as opposed to fixed) compressor inlet pressure, at the cost of a more expensive design. Furthermore, the results show that a predictive controller has some advantages with respect to the simpler conventional PI control structure, in particular in terms of constraint handling.