The influence of Chinese population policy change on resources and the environment

Universal two-child policy has been implemented since the end of 2015 in China. This policy is anticipated to bring a significant increase in the total population, with profound influences on the resources and environment in the future. This paper analyzes the changing dynamics of urban and rural population, and forecasts urban and rural population from 2016 to 2030 at national and provincial scale using a double log linear regression model. Drawing upon the results of these two predictions, the impact of the population policy change on Chinese resources consumption and environmental pollution are predicted quantitatively. Given the future total population maintains current levels on resources consumption and environmental emission, the additional demand of resources and environment demand for the new population is forecasted and compared against the capacity on supply side. The findings are as follows: after implementing the universal two-child policy, China’s grain, energy consumption, domestic water demand, and pollutant emissions are projected to increase at different rates across provinces. To meet the needs arising from future population growth, food and energy self-sufficiency rate will be significantly reduced in the future, while relying more on imports. Stability of the water supply needs to be improved, especially in Beijing, Henan, Jiangsu, Qinghai, and Sichuan where the gap in future domestic water demand is comparatively larger. Environmental protection and associated governing capability are in urgent need of upgrade not least due to the increasing pressure of pollution.     

Assessing the long-term supply risks for mineral raw materials—a combined evaluation of past and future trends

This paper develops a method for identifying and assessing long-term supply risks for mineral raw materials. The method is based on a combined evaluation of past and future supply and demand trends. By analysing raw material boom and bust cycles over the past 50 years, we have quantified indicators and defined benchmarks for identifying critical market situations. By applying the method, risks for supply shortage may be identified at an early stage. In addition, a numerical evaluation model has been developed for better comparison between various mineral raw materials. Compared to other assessment methods this method uses specific benchmarks for each raw material to better assess supply risks. The method is embedded within a systematic and comprehensive analytical approach.     

Air Quality Monitoring and Management in Lisbon

The environmental decision-making process is related with the interpretation of data both in spatial and temporal dimensions. This paper presents a methodology that integrates the time-space framework of air quality data to infer the temporal pattern and spatial variability that could be interpreted for environmental decision purposes. Variograms that accommodate time and space lags were used for the analysis and proved to be effective. Its environmental meaning, in particular its relationship with traffic patterns is discussed. Data from air quality monitoring stations located in the central part of Lisbon were used in this study. It describes a strategy to identify the type of vehicles responsible for certain pollutant levels, particularly for nitrogen oxides, and discusses the application of new air quality European legislation to the city of Lisbon, Portugal.     

纳米光催化氧化测定不同水体化学需氧量的研究

采用简便的沉淀法制备的纳米氧化锌为光催化荆,重铬酸钾为光生电子接受体,研究了纳米氧化锌-重铬酸钾体系测定COD的方法.COD值在1～100mg/L之间有良好的线性关系,线性方程为y=0.0007χ 0.0069,相关系数为r=0.9992,检测限为0.66mg,L.采用本方法和CODM.国标法对不同水体样品进行比较测定发现,对低COD值样品本方法加标回收率在96.3%～100.6%之间,变异系数Cv%=1.1～3.4,准确度和精密度均优于CODMn国标法,弥补了低COD值样品国标法(CODmn)测定不准确的不足,且单个样品测定时间短,具有推广应用价值.     

生化需氧量测定的方法改进

生化需氧量测定中接种液的制备和稀释倍数的确定是2个关键的步骤,本文提出一种可行的制备接种液的方法,根据实践经验,总结出一种稀释倍数计算方法,适合在实际分析中使用。     

气体二氧化氯对葡萄表面细菌杀菌规律研究

研究气体二氧化氯杀灭金黄色葡萄球菌、大肠杆菌、李斯特单增菌和腐生酵母菌4种葡萄表面的危险致病菌的杀菌规律。在实验范围内,随着气体二氧化氯浓度的增加和杀菌时间的延长,杀菌效果明显增加。当杀菌时间超过12min,杀菌量级几乎不再增加。杀菌效率随温度的增加而减小,在实验温度条件下,只有大肠杆菌的杀菌效果减少了5.38～6.09log量级,其他3种菌均减少了6log量级以上,杀菌作用温度在实验条件下对杀菌效果影响不大。研究表明,当气体二氧化氯的杀菌浓度为25mgl-1、杀菌时间12min、杀菌温度25℃的条件下,金黄色葡萄球菌、李斯特单增菌和腐生酵母菌均减少了6.4log量级以上,而大肠杆菌达到5.76log量级;同时表明二氧化氯气体的杀菌保鲜功能也是食品安全技术非热杀菌手段。     

用海泡石处理采油废水

用海泡石吸附法处理采油废水,考察了处理时间、海泡石加入量和采油废水pH对采油废水COD去除率的影响,并通过正交实验优化了采油废水处理工艺条件。通过正交实验得到的采油废水处理最佳工艺条件为：处理时间6h,粒径为150μm的海泡石加入量200g／L,采油废水pH9。在该条件下处理采油废水,COD去除率达到91％,处理后出水的COD为34．71mg／L,小于GB8978-1996（（污水综合排放标准》中的一级标准（60mg／L）。     

二氧化氯对有机染料脱色效果的研究

本文对二氧化氯二两种直接染料和两种活性染料脱色效果的影响因素－ClO2的投加量、染料的初始浓度、pH值、温度以及反应时间等进行了研究。结果表明,在适当的条件下,二氧化氯对这几种有机染料均具有很好的脱色效果。     

高氯低COD值水样的无汞快速测定法

以硝酸银和硫酸铬钾代替硫酸汞来消除 COD 测定中的氯离子干扰,同时将重铬酸钾溶液的浓度降低为0.100 mol／L,并用硫磷混酸代替硫酸,该方法经过对标准样品和实际样品的测定,表现出对于测定氯离子含量低于25000 mg／L的高氯低 COD 值水样具有较好的准确度和精密度,同时可以实现银盐的回收再利用。     

Forecasting China’s primary energy demand based on an improved AI model

An improved energy demand forecasting model is built based on the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach and an adaptive genetic algorithm (AGA) to obtain credible energy demand forecasting results. The ARDL bounds analysis is first employed to select the appropriate input variables of the energy demand model. After the existence of a cointegration relationship in the model is confirmed, the AGA is then employed to optimize the coefficients of both linear and quadratic forms with gross domestic product, economic structure, urbanization, and technological progress as the input variables. On the basis of historical annual data from 1985 to 2015, the simulation results indicate that the proposed model has greater accuracy and reliability than conventional optimization methods. The predicted results of the proposed model also demonstrate that China will demand approximately 4.9, 5.6, and 6.1 billion standard tons of coal equivalent in 2020, 2025, and 2030, respectively.