中国ESDPM模型及其在交通需求预测中的应用

交通运输是国民经济的基础部门.未来随着国民经济的快速发展和人均收入水平的不断提高,交通运输部门的能源消费量将会以较高的速度增长,在决定我国终端能耗的局面中占据着非常重要的地位.本文应用集合模型方法建立了中国能源服务需求预测模型( Energy service demand projection model,ESDPM),在对未来经济和社会发展进行合理假设的基础上,预测了中国未来一直到2050年的客运和货运周转量以及小汽车保有量,并进行了国家和地区间的比较.结果显示,2005-2050年中国的客运和货运周转量将分别以年均增长率5.9%和5.1%的速度增长,2050年客运和货运周转量将分别达到23.1万亿人·km和74.7万亿t·km.小汽车将随着人均GDP的快速增加呈现出明显的"S"型增长关系,在小汽车拥有率饱和水平选取为0.4时,小汽车保有量将稳定在5.8亿辆左右.     

后危机时代我国产业升级的约束条件及对策研究

产业升级是一项系统工程,目前面临一些约束条件,制约了产业升级的成效。本文分析了三个方面的约束因素:有效需求约束、供给约束、制度约束,并提出新形势下的产业结构调整对策:调整需求结构、要素投入结构、分配结构,扩大内需;调整三次产业结构;构建有利于产业结构调整的体制机制。     

不同来源废水COD、TOC与Cl-的关系

通过对含盐化工废水(A)、受潮汐影响的河流水(B)、城市生活污水处理厂排水(C)、采油废水(D)4种不同来源废水进行为期15 d的采样监测,测定了其COD、TOC和Cl-浓度,分析比较了3种废水指标之间的关系,其中COD分别使用重铬酸钾法、氯气校正法和碘化钾碱性高锰酸钾法3种方法进行测定.实验结果表明,4种废水Cl-浓...     

面向城市水系环境需水的再生水空间配置——以深圳市宝安区为例

以深圳市宝安区为例,探讨以再生水满足城市水系环境需水的方法.应用一维恒定与非恒定水质模型计算了4种补水水质方案下该区10条主要河流的环境需水量,从水量平衡角度提出全区再生水BOD5的平均值,并进一步分析了补水水质与河流环境需水量的关系.结合该区水系与污水处理系统空间位置,提出3种再生水的空间配置方法.结果表明:茅洲河和...     

A case study of an isolated wind powered electricity system meeting 100% of local demand

Using meteorological and electricity demand data for a 4-year period, electricity demand in Shetland was modeled to provide an estimate of the demand over a 30-year period from 1 January 1981. That modeled demand was then compared to estimated wind power output over the same period using the WAsP model. The wind farm output was estimated for a range of sizes of wind farm up to the consented 370 MW Viking Wind Farm in Shetland. Some wind power was available for 94% of the time and the 370 MW wind farm would meet 100% of demand for nearly 80% of the time. The statistics of single and accumulated deficits were calculated for a range of wind farms and estimates of the amount of additional generation capacity and additional power requirements were assessed. The study suggests that with storage, wind power in Shetland could meet all electricity demand in Shetland at around £130 to £150/MWh (excluding subsidy) and with a grid connection allowing the sale of excess power, those costs could be reduced.     

Predicting Satisfaction with Smart Irrigation Controllers and Their Long‐Term Use among Homeowners in Central Florida

Studies throughout Florida have shown smart controllers can substantially reduce irrigation under residential high‐water use conditions. However, successful promotion requires understanding the link between controller performance and the mechanisms by which they are adopted. This article compares irrigation water‐use and survey data collected from households installed with soil moisture sensor and evapotranspiration controllers. The study investigated whether the relative change in irrigation use between two years preceding and two years following installation was a reliable predictor of a homeowner's satisfaction with the device and likelihood of continuing to use it. Results indicated relative changes in irrigation use were only significantly associated with the quality of controller programming. Satisfaction with the controller was largely attributable to satisfaction with the appearance of the landscape and the perceived water‐saving effectiveness of the controller whereas the likelihood of its continued use was only significantly predicted by the level of technical knowledge regarding its functioning and whether or not challenges were experienced with it. Targeting homeowners with supplemental user‐friendly information may best support their long‐term adoption of smart controllers while providing irrigation contractors with training in implementation techniques would represent an integrated strategy for added reductions in residential outdoor water use.     

Assessing the long-term supply risks for mineral raw materials—a combined evaluation of past and future trends

This paper develops a method for identifying and assessing long-term supply risks for mineral raw materials. The method is based on a combined evaluation of past and future supply and demand trends. By analysing raw material boom and bust cycles over the past 50 years, we have quantified indicators and defined benchmarks for identifying critical market situations. By applying the method, risks for supply shortage may be identified at an early stage. In addition, a numerical evaluation model has been developed for better comparison between various mineral raw materials. Compared to other assessment methods this method uses specific benchmarks for each raw material to better assess supply risks. The method is embedded within a systematic and comprehensive analytical approach.     

A-O工艺污泥疏水比率与污泥活性的关系

通过A-O工艺对印染废水的降解处理,研究了不同污泥活性下微生物疏水比率和COD去除率的变化规律.结果表明,污泥活性指标ATP浓度与微生物疏水性之间存在一定关系,并对COD去除率产生一定的影响.缺氧污泥的活性指标ATP浓度在0.38～0.77 mg/L范围时,污泥微生物的疏水性最好且疏水比率最高值为84％,COD的去除率最高,为70.01％;好氧污泥的活性指标ATP浓度在0.86～2.17 mg/L范围时,污泥微生物的疏水性最好,疏水比率最高值为75％,COD的去除率最高为96.2％.     

氨/硫铵法烟气脱硫技术特点及市场前景分析

通过对我国二氧化硫污染现状及控制要求的分析,提出了氨/硫铵法作为一种资源回收型脱硫方法,具有反应速度快、工艺流程简单、吸收剂利用率高、适用范围广及可实现资源回收利用的特点;以工程案例的形式分析了氨/硫铵法的技术经济指标,并对氨/硫铵法的应用前景和市场需求进行了预测。     

无汞开管法快速测定工业废水中的COD

文章对化学需氧量的几种测定方法进行对比,研究了无汞开管法快速测定方法的实验条件与干扰因素,并与标准方法进行对照,总结出炼油废水应用无汞开管法监测COD的适用范围与注意事项,可供同类企业应用该方法时借鉴。