Forecasting energy demand of China using Bayesian Combination model

To analyze the impact of the related economic factors on China's energy demand, Path analysis is used to analyze the major factors and their direct and indirect effects on energy demand. This study showed that the main factors that affect the energy demand are the economic growth, the total population, and the primary energy structure, the economic growth is the main determining factor, and the primary energy structure is the major restrictive factor. On this basis and considering the multicollinearity and the validity of the forecast, we established a partial least-square (PLS) and the trend extrapolation prediction model, and then we sum up all the information to found a PLS—trend extrapolation combination forecasting model based on the optimized combining forecast theory. Finally, we obtain the probability distribution of the error using the Bayesian statistic theory and find the confidence interval of combining forecasting result. The results indicate that the outcome of combining forecasting will be more precise after using the Bayesian error correction approach.     

The Empirical Analysis of the Impacts of Income Distribution Gap on Consumption Demand： Based on the Statistic Data of Chinese Urban Residents in 2000-2010

This paper analyzes the impact of income distribution gap on consumption demand from a theoretical view, and draws the conclusion that there is an inverse relationship between income distribution gap a...     

基于核心资本变迁的产业可持续竞争力研究

当前,生态环境已经成为经济发展的主要约束条件,与生态环境相协调的可持续发展也是当前产业发展的主要趋势。本文通过对经济增长核心要素及约束条件变迁的考察,明确了可持续发展是经济与产业发展的必然趋势,同时拓宽了产业竞争力的视域,提出了产业可持续竞争力的概念。在此基础上,本文运用复杂系统动力学理论,探讨了产业核心资本变迁与产业可持续竞争力以及生态环境之间的关系。文章得出结论,在资源环境成为经济发展根本约束条件的前提下,环境质量的改善可以内化于产业可持续竞争力的提升过程中,途径就是增强产业对核心资本的使用程度。基于理论推导和实际数据的支持,本文最后从贯彻可持续发展和生态文明的理念、运用循环经济相关理论优化生产经营行为、推进面向资源环境的生态创新、加强人力资源投资、提高产业核心资本构成等方面,提出了相应的政策建议。     

城市旅游发展的动力:理论分析与案例研究

20世纪80年代之初，深圳和珠海旅游发展的内外部条件极为类似，但是20年来两个城市旅游的发展模式却完全不同。本文研究发现：城市旅游发展取决于需求结构和相对优势两个因素的共同作用。基于旅游体验本质的需求结构的变化，决定了同一类型的旅游城市具有相似的变化规律；不同类型的旅游城市变化规律差异较大。另一方面，城市旅游驱动机制决定了相对优势的变化，旅游驱动机制演变轨迹的不同正是建成各个城市旅游目的地旅游发展模式差别的主因。由此可见，城市旅游要实现可持续发展就必须用随外部环境的变化（主要是需求结构的变化），适时培育和转变驱动机制。     

化学需氧量现有2种标准分析方法若干问题研究

《水质化学需氧量的测定重铬酸盐法》(HJ 828-2017)和《高氯废水化学需氧量的测定氯气校正法》(HJ/T70-2001)是测定水中CODCr现有有效的2种标准方法.针对这2种方法存在的问题,通过实验给出操作建议.指出,对高氯废水稀释后采用《HJ828-2017》方法测定水中CODCr时,稀释倍数太大或稀释后COD...     

中国工业化、城市化进程中的能源需求预测与分析

为了取得可靠的能源需求预测,本文引入工业化、城市化等重要因素,利用支持向量回归机在时间序列预测中的优势,确定了输入向量集合和输出向量集合,建立基于支持向量回归机能源需求预测模型.将我国1985-2009年能源需求相关数据进行模拟与仿真,并对中国2010-2020年能源需求量进行预测,并模拟解释变量不同增长率下能源需求的演变并给出政策选择.研究结果表明,中国高速的经济增长以及工业化和城市化的发展对能源需求影响很大,到2020年能源需求将达到45.3亿t标准煤,而且经济增长速度越快对能源需求就越大.变量模拟得出的结论是产业结构也是能源需求重要影响因素之一,工业结构的调整,即便是微调,也会对能源需求有很大的抑制作用;中国城市化进程以及城市化发展阶段所表现出的工业化特征,推动了能源需求快速增长,城市化率越高对能源需求越大,且对能源需求是刚性的,城市化也是能源需求重要影响因素之一.     

光伏市场拉动研发创新的国际研究

光伏的高成本仍然阻碍着它的大规模应用,由于技术创新是成本下降的重要因素,如何实现市场对创新的拉动作用是具有现实意义和理论价值的问题.本研究从市场发展态势的角度分析如何实现市场对创新的拉动作用.首先结合光伏产业特点和技术创新学中的相关理论,提出关于不同阶段的市场态势对市场拉动创新的影响的理论假说.然后建立市场发展态势指标和市场动力检验模型,从而利用20个国家的市场与专利历史数据进行跨国比较分析,根据计量结果识别出市场发展态势对市场发挥拉动创新作用的影响.实证结果表明20个国家中70％的市场发挥了拉动研发创新的作用;在市场培育初期持续过小的市场拉动创新不显著,该发展态势可用技术扩散模型中p指标进行判断;在市场发展加速期急剧扩大的市场拉动创新不显著,该发展态势用技术扩散模型中q指标进行判断.因此,为了促进成本降低,光伏市场政策应主导市场规模实现平稳持续型增长.     

A Simple Discussion on the Supply and Demand of Water Resources in the Western Region of China

Abstract

We are accustomed to solve the problem of the water scarcity in the western region by the thought of increasing the effective supply of water to meet the needs of Go-west Campaign. After introducing the dynamic equilibrium principle on supply and demand in economy, we find that we should solve the problem of the water scarcity in the western region through reducing total demand to achieve the dynamic equilibrium of supply and demand. Finally water resources in the western region can be enlarged by an accumulated way.     

The Empirical Analysis of the Impacts of Income Distribution Gap on Consumption Demand: Based on the Statistic Data of Chinese Urban Residents in 2000–2010

Abstract

This paper analyzes the impact of income distribution gap on consumption demand from a theoretical view, and draws the conclusion that there is an inverse relationship between income distribution gap and consumption demand. Then, the paper finds that the existing widening income distribution gap in China has a negative impact on consumption demand, but this is not the key factor for the insufficient consumption demand because of the low level of per capital income. At last, it suggests that governments should improve the income level of entire residents and adjust income distribution structure simultaneously.     

Detection of dioxygenase genes present in various activated sludge

GOAL, SCOPE AND BACKGROUND: Activated sludge from refineries contains various microorganisms that could utilize aromatics under aerobic conditions due to the oxygenase enzymes. Dioxygenase enzymes are oxygenases, which are involved in the ring cleavage step of aromatic hydrocarbons. In this study, the selected catabolic loci involved in ring cleavage have been monitored in the activated sludge samples at different time intervals. The investigation of the dioxygenase genes in the Effluent Treatment Plants (ETPs) and evaluation of their presence at different time points provides a clue for the aromatic utilizing potential of the inherent microbial flora. METHODS: The catabolic gene loci pheB, xylE, tod-isp, bed and nahG responsible for the enzymes catechol 1,2-dioxygenase, catechol 2,3-dioxygenase, toluene dioxygenase-iron-sulphur protein component, benzene dioxygenase and naphthalene dioxygenase were used respectively. The time dependent change in eubacterial population was demonstrated by the amplification of 16S rDNA product, followed by restriction digestion. The template DNA was obtained from the activated sludge collected from ETPs. The supporting physiological data for the overall performance of sludge was developed using respirometric analysis. The on-site COD and MLSS analysis for ETP was used in final evaluation. The study was carried out with samples collected from three different ETPs and also from a selected ETP at different time intervals. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: The respirometric studies were carried out with phenol, catechol, toluene, and naphthalene to arrive at the target genotypes for further study by PCR protocol. The respirometric analysis coupled with the COD and MLSS analysis represented the physiological capacity of the various sludges. Initially, the tracking protocol was optimized by using different sludge samples, which were collected from refineries. The selected genotypes were amplified and their presence has been confirmed using Southern analysis. The gene loci tod-isp, bed and xylE were commonly observed at various time intervals of the sludge from the same source. The gene loci pheB and nahG were found to be relatively rare. CONCLUSION: The 16S rDNA PCR products after restriction digestion produced different DNA fingerprint patterns, suggesting that the microbial community composition was diverse in the three sources. Similarly, the presence of the catechol 2,3-dioxygenase, benzene dioxygenase and toluene dioxygenase genes confirmed the aromatic degrading potential in the various sludges. The probes could not pick the nahG and pheB genes. However, the respirometeric assay suggested that the oxidative capacity to use naphthalene as a substrate exists. RECOMMENDATION AND PERSPECTIVE: Our study of the diversity at various time points from the ETP provided an overview of the shifts of the catabolic composition of the sludge. This also depends on the influential parameters like the incoming pollutant level and the environmental conditions that are prevailing and often changing from time to time. The results of direct DNA extraction and PCR amplification do reflect the relative abundance of a particular catabolic genotype, which could be used to monitor the efficiency of treatment.