Effects of Riparian Areas,Stream Order,and Land Use Disturbance on Watershed‐Scale Habitat Potential: An Ecohydrologic Approach to Policy1

Abstract: Spatio‐temporal linkages between hydrologic and ecologic dimensions of watersheds play a critical role in conservation policies. Habitat potential is influenced by variation along longitudinal and lateral gradients and land use disturbance. An assessment of these influences provides critical information for protecting watershed ecosystems and in making spatially explicit, conservation decisions. We use an ecohydrologic approach that focuses on interface between hydrological and ecological processes. This study focuses on changes in watershed habitat potentials along lateral (riparian), and longitudinal (stream order) dimensions and disturbance (land use). The habitat potentials were evaluated for amphibians, reptiles, mammals, and birds in the Westfield River Watershed of Massachusetts using geographic information systems and multivariate analysis. We use a polynomial model to study nonlinear effects using robust regression. Various spatial policies were modeled and evaluated for influence on species diversity. All habitat potentials showed a strong influence along spatial dimensions and disturbance. The habitat potential for all vertebrate groups studied decreased as the distance from the riparian zone increased. Headwaters and lower order subwatersheds had higher levels of species diversity compared to higher order subwatersheds. It was observed that locations with the least disturbance also had higher habitat potential. The study identifies three policy criteria that could be used to identify critical areas within a watershed to conserve habitat suitable for various species through management and restoration activities. A spatially variable policy that is based on stream order, riparian distance, and land use can be used to maximize watershed ecological benefits. Wider riparian zones with variable widths, protection of headwaters and lower order subwatersheds, and minimizing disturbance in riparian and headwater areas can be used in watershed policy. These management objectives could be achieved using targeted economic incentives, best management practices, zoning laws, and educational programs using a watershed perspective.     

Field‐Scale Application of Three Types of Neural Networks to Predict Ground‐Water Levels1

Abstract: In this paper, a field‐scale applicability of three forms of artificial neural network algorithms in forecasting short‐term ground‐water levels at specific control points is presented. These algorithms are the feed‐forward back propagation (FFBP), radial basis networks (RBN), and generalized regression networks (GRN). Ground‐water level predictions from these algorithms are in turn to be used in an Optimized Regional Operations Plan that prescribes scheduled wellfield production for the coming four weeks. These models are up against each other for their accuracy of ground‐water level predictions on lead times ranging from a week to four weeks, ease of implementation, and execution times (mainly training time). In total, 208 networks of each of the three algorithms were developed for the study. It is shown that although learning algorithms have emerged as a viable solution at field scale much larger than previously studied, no single algorithm performs consistently better than others on all the criteria. On average, FFBP networks are 20 and 26%, respectively, more accurate than RBN and GRN in forecasting one week ahead water levels and this advantage drops to 5 and 9% accuracy in forecasting four weeks ahead water levels, whereas GRN posted a training time that is only 5% of the training time taken by that of FFBP networks. This may suggest that in field‐scale applications one may have to trade between the type of algorithm to be used and the degree to which a given objective is honored.     

Estimating Evapotranspiration and Seepage for a Sinkhole Wetland From Diurnal Surface‐Water Cycles1

Abstract: This study used measured diurnal surface‐water cycles to estimate daily evapotranspiration (ET) and seepage for a seasonally flooded sinkhole wetland. Diurnal surface‐water cycles were classified into five categories based on the relationship between the surface‐water body and the surrounding ground‐water system (i.e., recharge/discharge). Only one class of diurnal cycles was found to be suitable for application of this method. This subset of diurnal cycles was used to estimate ET and seepage and the relative importance of each transfer process to the overall water budget. The method has limited utility for wetlands with erratic hydrologic regimes (e.g., wetlands in urban environments). This is due to violation of the critical assumption that the inflow/outflow rate remains constant throughout the day. For application to surface‐water systems, the method is typically applied with an assumed specific yield of 1.0. This assumption was found to be invalid for application to surface‐water systems with a noncylindrical pond geometry. An overestimation of ET by as much as 60% was found to occur under conditions of low pond stage and high water loss. The results demonstrate the high ET rates that can occur in isolated wetlands due to contrasting roughness and moisture conditions (oasis and clothesline effects). Estimated ET rates ranged from 4.1 to 18.7 mm/day during the growing season. Despite these large ET rates, seepage (recharge) was found to be the dominant water loss mechanism for the wetland.     

SIMULATED EFFECTS OF ALTERED SPILLWAY RELEASES ON THERMAL STRUCTURE AND KOKANEE GROWTH IN A COLORADO RESERVOIR1

ABSTRACT: In‐reservoir thermal and ecological effects of releasing some flows over the surface spillway at Blue Mesa Reservoir, Colorado, rather than routing all releases through the hypolimnetic outlet were evaluated using a calibrated and validated one‐dimensional thermal model (CE‐THERM) with a set of ecological models. Thermal model output indicated that surface water temperatures were influenced primarily by atmospheric conditions, but the release of warmer water over the spillway resulted in a thinner epilimnion and cooler metalimnetic water temperatures. Ecological model predictions indicated that spillway releases and associated temperatures resulted in lower growth rates for young‐of‐year (YOY) kokanee salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) in the reservoir by up to 9 percent when compared with growth rates under baseline operations with no releases over the spillway. Kokanee growth rates were reduced under spillway release scenarios because lower temperatures not only affected metabolic rates, but limited the productivity of the zooplankton as well. Thus, altering the release regime with spillway discharges could have deleterious effects on Blue Mesa's YOY kokanee. However, in other reservoirs, distributing discharges among different elevations may provide managers with a mechanism to regulate temperatures to benefit species of concern that are facing challenges imposed by environmental conditions such as global warming.     

FORECASTING DRY SEASON STREAMFLOW ON THE PEACE RIVER AT ARCADIA,FLORIDA, USA1

ABSTRACT: The Peace River at Arcadia, Florida, is a municipal water supply supplement for southwestern Florida. Consequently, probabilities of encountering low flows during the dry season are of critical importance. Since the association between Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and seasonal streamflow variability in the southeastern United States is well documented, it is reasonable to generate forecasts based on this information. Here, employing historic records of minimum, mean, and maximum flows during winter (JFM) and spring (AMJ), upper and lower terciles define “above normal,”“normal,” and “below normal” levels of each variable. A probability distribution model describes the likelihood of these seasonal variables conditioned upon Pacific SSTs from the previous summer (JAS). Model calibration is based upon 40 (of 50) years of record employing stratified random sampling to ensure equal representation from each decade. The model is validated against the remaining 10 samples and the process repeated 100 times. Each conditional probability distribution yields varying probabilities of observing flow variables within defined categories. Generally, a warm (cold) Pacific is associated with higher (lower) flows. To test model skill, the forecast is constrained to be the most probable category in each calibration year, with significance tested by chi‐square frequency tables. For all variables, the tables indicate high levels of association between forecast and observed terciles and forecast skill, particularly during winter. During spring the pattern is less clear, possibly due to the variable starting date of the summer rainy season. This simple technique suggests that Pacific SSTs provide a good forecast of low flows.     

ECONOMIC INCENTIVES FOR WATER CONSERVATION ON THE MONTEREY PENINSULA: THE MARKET PROPOSAL1

ABSTRACT: Literatures on price‐based urban water conservation and on market‐based mechanisms to manage natural resources suggest that market‐based management of urban/suburban water use may be feasible. A market‐based proposal that emerged from a water shortage on California's Monterey Peninsula is presented. In the proposal, conservation incentives arise both from an ability among end‐users of water to reduce consumption and sell use‐rights to water, and from a penalty price for consumption in excess of one's use rights. The amount of water associated with use rights is capped and varies according to hydrological, meteorological, ecological, and other criteria. Requirements for further study of the proposal are listed, and the role that similar market‐based mechanisms could play in urban water management is discussed.     

SIZING OF SURFACE WATER RUNOFF DETENTION PONDS FOR WATER QUALITY IMPROVEMENT1

ABSTRACT: Historically, storm water management programs and criteria have focused on quantity issues related to flooding and drainage system design. Traditional designs were based on large rainfall‐runoff events such as those having two‐year to 100‐year return periods. While these are key criteria for management and control of peak flows, detention basin designs based on these criteria may not provide optimal quality treatment of storm runoff. As evidenced by studies performed by numerous public and private organizations, the water quality impacts of storm water runoff are primarily a function of more frequent rainfall‐runoff events rather than the less frequent events that cause peak flooding. Prior to this study there had been no detailed investigations to characterize the variability of the more frequent rainfall events on Guam. Also, there was a need to develop some criteria that could be applied by designers, developers, and agency officials in order to reduce the impact of storm water runoff on the receiving bodies. The objectives of this paper were three‐fold: (1) characterize the hourly rainfall events with respect to volume, frequency, duration, and the time between storm events; (2) evaluate the rainfall‐runoff characteristics with respect to capture volume for water quality treatment; and (3) prepare criteria for sizing and designing of storm water quality management facilities. The rainfall characterization studies have provided insight into the characteristics of rainstorms that are likely to produce non‐point source pollution in storm water runoff. By far the most significant fmdings are the development of a series of design curves that can be used in the actual sizing of storm water detention and treatment facilities. If applied correctly, these design curves could lead to a reduction of non‐point source pollution to Guam's streams, estuaries, and coastal environments.     

TEMPORAL RESPONSES OF SURFACE‐WATER AND GROUND‐WATER TO PRECIPITATION IN ILLINOIS1

ABSTRACT: Illinois data from 168 months (1986–1999) were investigated to determine the responses of surface‐water and ground‐water resources to precipitation. Such responses were generally within the month of occurrence or one to two months later, with recovery being reached another one to three months into the future, depending on season of the year. Although the drought of 1988 immediately impacted surface‐water and ground‐water resources, the time of recovery was substantially longer compared to those of individual dry months, generally continuing for several months. The extremely wet summer of 1993 resulted in elevated responses in water resources almost immediately, but in this instance continued through the following fall and winter, into the spring of 1994.     

A SCALE‐INVARIANT GAUSS‐MARKOV MODEL FOR DESIGN STORM HYETOGRAPHS1

Abstract. Hyetographs are essential to many hydrological designs. Many studies have shown that hyetographs are specific to storm types and durations. Recent work presented evidence that dimensionless hyetographs are scale invariant. We show that the simple scaling property of rainfall guarantees that the normalized rainfall rates of different storm durations are identically distributed and propose a nonstationary Gauss‐Markov model based on the annual maximum events that arise from the dominant storm type. We derive the unique estimators for the parameters of the Gauss‐Markov model under two constraints that: (a) the typical peak rainfall rate is preserved, and (b) the most likely hyetograph is obtained. One attractive feature of this model is that it allows translating hyetographs between storms of different durations. Two examples illustrate our model.