基于蒙特卡洛方法的油气井管柱可靠性评估*

为提高油气井管柱服役的安全性,采用数据统计与可靠性理论评估油气井管柱可靠性。首先,识别影响管柱外载及其参数的变量,构建油气井管柱安全极限状态方程;然后,采集模型变量数据,确定变量分布与参数,形成油气井管柱可靠性数值模型;最后,通过蒙特卡洛方法计算影响管柱可靠性的关键变量和不同置信度水平下管柱剩余强度分布及安全系数取值。结果表明:目标区域油气井管柱剩余强度符合正态分布,得到不同置信度水平下管柱的可靠度,管柱的安全系数取值范围可满足管柱安全设计要求,所构建的方法可为实际生产中油气井井筒管柱安全评价提供技术支撑。     

A simple,rapid, and highly informative PCR-based procedure for prenatal diagnosis and carrier screening of phenylketonuria

The polymorphic information content (PIC) and the degree of heterozygosity of several polymorphic systems within the phenylalanine hydroxylase (PAH) gene were determined in 85 European Caucasian and 19 Chinese phenylketonuria (PKU) kindreds. The first system examined, a short tandem repeat (STR), had a PIC of 80 and 73 per cent in these Caucasian and Chinese samples, respectively. The degree of heterozygosity actually observed for this system was 81 and 64 per cent in the Caucasian and Chinese PKU families, respectively. Through the addition of a second polymorphism based on a variable number of tandem repeats (VNTR), the PIC was increased to 90 per cent in Caucasians, but only to 75 per cent in Chinese. The degree of heterozygosity observed for this combination was 94 per cent in European PKU families and 67 per cent in Chinese PKU families. The further addition of an Xmnl RFLP increased both the PIC and the level of heterozygosity in Caucasians to 95 per cent, but did not change either of these measures in Chinese. The combined use of these three polymorphisms significantly increases the informativity of prenatal diagnostic and carrier screening procedures in both Caucasian and Chinese PKU kindreds. Furthermore, since each of these polymorphisms can be studied by PCR-based methods, these new tests can be performed more quickly and easily than previous Southern-based procedures.     

拟合风频法计算重庆大气稳定度频率

本文用韦伯分布拟合风频,在确定大气稳定度的三因子太阳高度角、云量和风速是相互独立的变量的假定下,用计算单个变量频率的方法,计算了重庆5年的P—T大气稳定度频率,其结果与原P—T法统计结果十分吻合。对误差综合分析后给出了合理的订正方案,个例订正表明了方案的正确性。通过大量迭代推算给出重庆风速韦伯分布最佳函数值,以供选用。     

大气质量综合评价的变权识别模型及其应用

根据属性识别理论 ,建立大气质量综合评价的变权识别模型 ,利用污染贡献率确定权重系数。与其它评价模型相比 ,变权识别模型还具有排序功能 ,实例分析表明该模型是有效的     

全复合材料翼面振动主动控制技术研究

目的减小复合材料结构振动响应。方法以全复合材料翼面为研究对象,结合该翼面结构有限元模型,建立带有压电作动器的结构动力学仿真模型。利用PID(Proportional,Integral and Differential)控制理论设计主动控制律,基于Simulink仿真平台设计控制律程序,通过控制律变参分析得出PID控制各参数的设计规律,基于仿真模型进行主动控制仿真试验。以仿真试验结果为基础,在复合材料翼面上进行振动主动控制地面试验。结果有效地控制了复合材料翼面振动响应,振动响应减小了79.74%,验证了模型和控制律设计的有效性。结论以压电作动器作为控制作动器,通过PID控制理论设计控制律,能够有效控制全复合材料翼面振动,使振动减小。     

论舰船装备采用CAIV的费用控制与管理

为了降低舰船装备全寿命周期费用,通常通过对费用与功能特性、进度和可靠性、维修性、保障性、测试性、安全性、环境适应性进行权衡来实现,这种权衡实质上是费用与舰船装备系统效能的权衡.费用作为独立变量(CAIV)是一项降低全寿命期费用的关键管理技术.论述了CAIV的权衡方法,提出了CAIV模型应该具备的共性,分析了CAIV的运...     

垃圾渗滤液的超临界水氧化法处理应用研究

垃圾渗滤波是垃圾在堆放和填埋过程中由于生化反应渗滤出来的成分复杂的高浓度有机废水,危害性大,是水处理中的难题。超临界水氧化法采用高温高压强氧化使渗滤液反应并降解,本研究选取该法对垃圾渗滤液进行实验研究,以间歇式超临界水氧化装置作为反应器,通过单因素变量法,同时综合仪器设备腐蚀研究及安全等级,确定反应的“最优”工艺参数,即反应时间150秒、反应温度410℃、反应压力35Npa下,污染物的处理效率可达到96．6％,并同时对超临界水氧化法处理的影响因素进行分析。     

转炉二次烟气除尘变工况及风机调速

根据转炉二次烟气除尘风量随冶炼周期变化的特征,利用工艺设备工况特征信号控制各除尘阀门的开闭,并根据各个除尘分支管道工况的变化,确定系统在不同工作点的总阻力、风量和风机转速,达到自动控制风机调速,节约电能的目的。     

基于变权模型的唐山城市脆弱性演变预警分析

城市脆弱性评价预警是城市脆弱性研究的重要内容。研究以资源型城市唐山作为案例,基于资源、环境、经济和社会框架构建了城市脆弱性预警指标体系,引入惩罚型变权模型对2000—2014年城市脆弱性的警情进行评价测度,结合GM（1,1）模型对2015—2020年城市脆弱性警情进行了预测。结果表明：1）变权模型能够有效满足资源型城市脆弱性预警研究;2）2000—2014年,唐山城市脆弱性预警指数由0.449上升至0.716,警度等级呈下降态势,从“重警”演变为“轻警”,警情指示灯由“橙灯”演变为“蓝灯”;3）2015—2020年唐山城市脆弱性预警等级预测结果为“轻警”变为“无警”,警情指示灯为“蓝灯”变为“绿灯”。研究结果可为城市脆弱性评价提供方法基础和科学依据,为改善唐山脆弱状况提供决策支持。     

Shake table study of annular baffles in steel storage tanks as sloshing dependent variable dampers

Aboveground steel storage tanks are widely utilized in industrial areas such as oil refineries, petrochemical complexes, oil depots, and etc. Assurance of these infrastructure facilities in high seismic areas is a very important engineering consideration. High amplitude fluid sloshing is one of the widespread causes of steel oil storage tanks during strong earthquakes addressed as an important failure mode. This phenomenon generates additional forces impacting the wall and roof of the tanks. Annular baffles can be used as slosh damping devises to control liquid sloshing within a tank. The main objective of this paper is experimental study of annular baffle effects as anti-sloshing damping devices to reduce fluid wave sloshing height in steel storage tanks typically used in oil and petrochemical complexes during an earthquake. Shake table tests have been used on a reduced scale model steel storage tank in two cases of with and without annular baffles. Three real earthquake ground motion records are used as input base motion. Based on the experimental test results, dynamic characteristics of studied tank models with different filling levels and different baffle dimensions and arrangements have been obtained and summarized in this paper. Also, sloshing heights and convective mode damping values are determined from the test results and compared with API650 code recommendations and recommended equations by other researchers. Generally, the results of this study indicate significant effects of the annular baffles in reducing the fluid wave sloshing height as sloshing dependent variable dampers.