受偿意愿在确定生态补偿标准上下限中的作用

受偿意愿（WTA）是制定生态补偿标准的常用依据之一,能否正确使用WTA对于制定合理的补偿标准具有重要影响.本文梳理了国内近12a的相关文献,发现在WTA应作为生态补偿标准的上限还是下限问题上尚无定论,尽管大多数研究将WTA作为补偿标准下限,但背后的逻辑并不严谨.本文认为生态补偿标准制定过程可视为受偿方和支付方的讨价还价过程,因此WTA实际上是受偿方的出价,应作为补偿标准上限.另外,本文从WTA、支付意愿（WTP）是区间的角度进行分析,判断补偿标准可取的范围,发现当调查得到的WTA大于WTP时,仍存在谈成的可能性;当调查得到的WTA小于WTP时,实际达成空间大于表面达成空间,决策者拥有更大的选择空间.     

仅知失效数的指数型元件失效率的估计

目的基于仅知失效元件数而不知其确切寿命的试验数据,对指数型元件的失效率进行估计。方法设在时刻t_0=0以n个指数型元件进行寿命试验,但仅在时刻t_0t_1…t_k记录失效的元件数,即在[t_0,t_1],[t_1,t_2],…,[t_(k-1),t_k]内可以观测到失效的元件数,但失效元件的确切寿命未知,将各时间段内的失效元件数分别记为r_1,r_2,…,r_k,在t_k时刻未失效的元件数记为r_(k+1)。采用改进的条件中数的方法,计算元件在[t_0,t_1],[t_1,t_2],…,[t_(k-1),t_k],[t_k,∞]的条件中位寿命分别为μ_1,μ_2,…,μ_k,μ_(k+1),将[t_(i-1),t_i]内失效的r_i个元件的寿命均近似看作μ_i,未失效的r_(k+1)个元件的寿命近似看作(t_k+μ_(k+1))/2,进而估计元件的失效率,并对此方法进行仿真。结果仿真结果表明,改进后的估计结果得到改善。结论对于此类数据,改进的条件中位数方法可以有效估计元件的失效率,并可应用于实际。     

Hierarchical Bayesian Spatial Models for Multispecies Conservation Planning and Monitoring

Abstract: Biologists who develop and apply habitat models are often familiar with the statistical challenges posed by their data's spatial structure but are unsure of whether the use of complex spatial models will increase the utility of model results in planning. We compared the relative performance of nonspatial and hierarchical Bayesian spatial models for three vertebrate and invertebrate taxa of conservation concern (Church's sideband snails [Monadenia churchi], red tree voles [Arborimus longicaudus], and Pacific fishers [Martes pennanti pacifica]) that provide examples of a range of distributional extents and dispersal abilities. We used presence–absence data derived from regional monitoring programs to develop models with both landscape and site‐level environmental covariates. We used Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms and a conditional autoregressive or intrinsic conditional autoregressive model framework to fit spatial models. The fit of Bayesian spatial models was between 35 and 55% better than the fit of nonspatial analogue models. Bayesian spatial models outperformed analogous models developed with maximum entropy (Maxent) methods. Although the best spatial and nonspatial models included similar environmental variables, spatial models provided estimates of residual spatial effects that suggested how ecological processes might structure distribution patterns. Spatial models built from presence–absence data improved fit most for localized endemic species with ranges constrained by poorly known biogeographic factors and for widely distributed species suspected to be strongly affected by unmeasured environmental variables or population processes. By treating spatial effects as a variable of interest rather than a nuisance, hierarchical Bayesian spatial models, especially when they are based on a common broad‐scale spatial lattice (here the national Forest Inventory and Analysis grid of 24 km² hexagons), can increase the relevance of habitat models to multispecies conservation planning.     

A PROPOSED METHOD FOR DROUGHT MONITORING1

ABSTRACT: Existing definitions of drought have focused on limited hydrologic indicators and are less effective for the purpose of drought monitoring. This study uses historical records of streamflow, precipitation, ground water, temperature, and lake elevation to define drought. Based on the method of truncation, drought durations and conditional probabilities of each indicator were estimated to define the drought severity levels, namely, 70 percent, 80 percent, 90 percent, and 95 percent. A drought monitoring method was developed by a combination of truncation level, duration, and conditional probabilities of five indicators. A six-month period of the 1988 drought in the central Ohio region was used to test the monitoring method. It was found that the developed method could effectively detect an occurrence of drought.     

基于多种预测模型的玉米低温冷害预测集成模型

引入大气环流特征量因子、500hPa高度场因子、太平洋海温因子以及预报量本身的均值周期因子等四类因子的低温冷害预测子模型来建立玉米低温冷害预测集成模型。利用该集成模型预报下一年温度等级时，将上一年的实况资料输入预测模型，滚动预测，克服了统计模型预报时效短的缺点，且试报准确性高，无错报。     

环评机构从经济独立到评价独立方法研究

针对环评机构在市场化中丧失评价独立性,严重损害环境影响评价制度有效性的问题。提出通过创新评价费用定价方式、招标委托方式、支付方式及限制环评机构数量等途径保障环评机构经济独立性。通过增加环评透明度、责任追究与淘汰制度、建立评价机构分级制度督促取得了经济独立性的环评机构保持其评价独立性,真正实现环评机构独立、科学、客观、公正地开展环评工作,提高环境影响评价质量。     

Probabilistic Modelling of Cattle Farm Distribution in Australia

A probabilistic Bayesian method called weights of evidence (WofE) was used to develop a synthetic dataset of cattle farm locations at a national scale across Australia. The synthetic dataset was required for the modelling of livestock movements with a view to assessing biosecurity implications. The WofE method is based on the analysis of spatial relationships between evidential patterns with respect to an event, such as the actual location of a farm. The evidential patterns of cattle farms were derived from maps of land use, land tenure, drainage systems, roads, settlements and long-term averaged rainfall. These evidential patterns were used for delineating and ranking land areas suitable for cattle farming. For each evidential pattern statistics such as a positive weight, a negative weight and a contrast were calculated for estimating the degree of correlation between the evidential patterns and known farm locations. The integrated evidential patterns of known farms were then used for estimating posterior probabilities and splitting land into five different classes according to its suitability for farming.

Point patterns of forest fire locations

In this paper I demonstrate some of the techniques for the analysis of spatial point patterns that have become available due to recent developments in point process modelling software. These developments permit convenient exploratory data analysis, model fitting, and model assessment. Efficient model fitting, in particular, makes possible the testing of statistical hypotheses of genuine interest, even when interaction between points is present, via Monte Carlo methods. The discussion of these techniques is conducted jointly with and in the context of some preliminary analyses of a collection of data sets which are of considerable interest in their own right. These data sets (which were kindly provided to me by the New Brunswick Department of Natural Resources) consist of the complete records of wildfires which occurred in New Brunswick during the years 1987 through 2003. In treating these data sets I deal with data-cleaning problems, methods of exploratory data analysis, means of detecting interaction, fitting of statistical models, and residual analysis and diagnostics. In addition to demonstrating modelling techniques, I include a discussion on the nature of statistical models for point patterns. This is given with a view to providing an understanding of why, in particular, the Strauss model fails as a model for interpoint attraction and how it has been modified to overcome this difficulty. All actual modelling of the New Brunswick fire data is done only with the intent of illustrating techniques. No substantive conclusions are or can be drawn at this stage. Realistic modelling of these data sets would require incorporation of covariate information which I do not so far have available.

基于地统计条件模拟的土壤重金属污染范围预测方法研究

常用的空间插值模型在土壤污染范围预测时存在平滑效应,导致高值区被平滑和低值区被高估,在划定污染区范围时也往往忽视了插值结果存在的偏差。以某土壤重金属污染区域为例,利用地统计条件模拟方法预测土壤中Cu、Pb的空间分布,在多次模拟结果的基础上估算污染概率,基于概率阈值确定污染区范围。研究结果表明,地统计条件模拟方法获得的土壤Cu、Pb模拟结果统计特征与调查样点的统计特征基本一致,且空间分布格局也相似。基于污染概率的污染区范围确定方法可以定量评估污染区范围预测的不确定性,对提高土壤污染治理效果与科学制定环境管理决策具有重要意义。     

G20峰会期间宜兴市大气VOCs特征及来源分析

2016年G20杭州峰会期间,应用TH-300B挥发性有机物在线监测仪对江苏省宜兴市大气VOCs进行监测,烷烃、烯烃、芳香烃、乙炔、氯代烃、OVOC、乙腈体积混合比分别为11.00×10~(-9)、1.93×10~(-9)、5.78×10~(-9)、1.23×10~(-9)、4.16×10~(-9)、10.37×10~(-9)、0.27×10~(-9),应用臭氧最大生成潜势系数计算,烯烃和芳香烃为OFP贡献最大的活性组分,VOCs中臭氧前体物NMHCs主要来源为工业排放(42.2%)、机动车尾气(17.9%)、油气挥发(20.8%)、溶剂挥发(7.0%)、植物源贡献(12.1%),结合条件概率函数分析,其中的人为污染源与西北、东南方向的污染源分布有关,植物源与西南山地丘陵区域有关.在大气污染物排放严格管控期(2016-09-01~2016-09-06),主要源于一次排放的大气污染物浓度均有所下降,NMHCs中工业源占比下降至30.5%,植物源占比上升至16.8%.