中国大豆压榨企业空间格局及其演变机制

随着中国居民生活水平的不断提高,国内肉蛋奶的消费需求逐年增长,致使作为主要饲料蛋白原料的豆粕需求也不断增加。而豆粕是大豆压榨行业的主要产品,因此,大豆生产、大豆压榨、饲料生产和畜禽养殖组成了一个密切关联的产业系统,大豆原料生产与供给区分布、饲料生产和畜禽养殖业布局又会对大豆压榨行业空间格局的形成产生重要影响。以大豆压榨企业为研究对象,通过产业链视角,运用平均最近邻分析、核密度分析方法,研究了1996-2016年间中国大豆压榨企业的空间格局演变规律与集聚特征,然后构建了条件Logit模型探讨影响中国大豆压榨企业区位选择的主要因素。结果表明：中国大豆压榨企业空间集聚程度较高,自1996年以来,经历了从大豆主产区向沿海港口城市集聚再沿长江、哈大铁路、陇海铁路等交通运输线路扩散的演化特点。各地原料资源禀赋、运费成本、市场规模与潜力、集聚经济以及政府政策都会不同程度地影响中国大豆压榨企业的空间格局,并且不同时期影响大豆压榨企业空间格局的因素显著性及强度都会有所变化。2000-2005年原料资源禀赋、运输成本、豆粕市场规模以及集聚经济发挥着较大作用;2006-2010年间集聚经济和政府政策共同主导了大豆压榨企业的区位决策;2010年以后市场潜力与集聚不经济则表现出更强的作用。     

Line intersect sampling: Ell-shaped transects and multiple intersections

The probability of selecting a population element under line intersect sampling depends on the width of the particle in the direction perpendicular to the transect, as is well known. The consequence of this when using ell-shaped transects rather than straight-line transects are explicated, and modifications that preserve design-unbiasedness of Kaiser's (1983) conditional and unconditional estimators are presented. A case against treating multiple intersections as multiple probabilistic events is argued on the basis, also, of preserving design-unbiased estimation.     

Fault propagation behavior study and root cause reasoning with dynamic Bayesian network based framework

The Bhopal disaster was a gas leak incident in India, considered the world's worst industrial disaster happened around process facilities. Nowadays the process facilities in petrochemical industries have becoming increasingly large and automatic. There are many risk factors with complex relationships among them. Unfortunately, some operators have poor access to abnormal situation management experience due to the lack of knowledge. However these interdependencies are seldom accounted for in current risk and safety analyses, which also belonged to the main factor causing Bhopal tragedy. Fault propagation behavior of process system is studied in this paper, and a dynamic Bayesian network based framework for root cause reasoning is proposed to deal with abnormal situation. It will help operators to fully understand the relationships among all the risk factors, identify the causes that lead to the abnormal situations, and consider all available safety measures to cope with the situation. Examples from a case study for process facilities are included to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach. It also provides a method to help us do things better in the future and to make sure that another such terrible accident never happens again.     

Conditional Water Rights in the Western United States: Introducing Uncertainty to Prior Appropriation?

In the prior‐appropriation water rights regimes that prevail in the arid western United States, claims to annually variable surface water flows are fulfilled based on the order of their establishment. The two‐step process used to establish an appropriative water right in all 17 conterminous western states creates a temporary phase, or conditional water right, which has a priority date but no actual water use. We provide a review of the legal basis for these conditional water rights and demonstrate the potential uncertainty they introduce to current water users. We then present a complete census of conditional water rights in Colorado, including their amounts, ages, and uses. At the end of 2012 there were a large number of conditional water rights in Colorado (some over 90 years old) equal to 61% of the perfected water rights. Many of the controversial conditional water rights in Colorado have been associated with unconventional oil production in the northwestern portion of the state; however, conditional water rights are ubiquitous across the state and across many use types. In several basins, their existence can introduce uncertainty to some of the most senior water rights holders. Nevertheless, in most of the state, the effects of conditional water rights are restricted to a relatively junior class of water users. This work quantifies for the first time the result, in one state, of a peculiar aspect of water law common across all western prior‐appropriation states.     

A Relaxed Eddy Accumulation System for the Automated Measurement of Atmospheric Ammonia Fluxes

A continuous relaxed eddy accumulation system ispresented for the automated measurement of surface/atmosphere exchange fluxes of atmospheric ammonia (NH₃) at a single height. The new system features sampling by parallel plate denuder inlets, online chemical analysis using the conductivity cell of a commercially available NH₃ analyzer and online flux calculation. The effective detection limit of the system for air concentrations is 0.2 g m^-3 and it is estimated to resolve fluxes > ± 20 ng m^-2 s^-1, depending on the NH₃ concentration and turbulence. The performance of the system was tested in two measurement campaigns above agricultural grassland, in which it was compared with a 3-point continuous gradient system. During the first campaign, after urea application of 47 kg N ha^-1 in autumn, the REA system derived fluxes which were on average twice as large as the gradient fluxes, while concentrations agreed closely (on average within 4%). Possible reasons include differences in the footprint and an over-correction of the gradient flux in stable conditions. Due to wet and cold conditions, only 0.3% of the fertilizer N was volatilized as NH₃ during the first week. Results from the deployment of an improved system are presented for a summer day, 6 days after fertilization with calcium ammonium nitrate. The agreement of both concentrations (on average within 13%) and fluxes (26%) was very encouraging and similar to the agreement found between two state-of-the-art gradient systems with online analysis.     

构建新型危险化学品安全管理体制

随着我国经济的快速发展,危险化学品事故频频发生。现行危险化学品安全管理体制存在漏洞是其主要原因。笔者认为现行危险化学品安全管理体制主要存在5个方面不足:管理体制与市场经济体制不符;行业管理未能实现;中介作用没有发挥;工会维权力量薄弱;公众参与严重不足等。为此,建议建立政府、市场和民众相互协调的危险化学品安全管理体制,即“政府监管、市场调节和社会监督”。其中,政府监管包括政府管理和国家监督,市场调节包括企业责任和中介服务,社会监督包括员工维权和公众参与。     

浙江西沪港重金属Pb的配位容量及其形态

根据2000年6月l0(14日在浙江西沪港采集的海水样品，用AA-800石墨炉原子吸收分光光度技术和阳极溶出伏安法测定样品中重金属Pb的含量，获得Pb在海水中受特定的有机配体控制结果如下：(1)溶解态Pb的表观配位容量和条件稳定常数分别为50．0nmol／dm^3和9．73，表层海水中Pb溶解态总量为1．92nmol／dm^3。(2)不同胶体粒级(小于或等于0．2、0．4、1．0μm粒级)中Pb的含量分别为1．25、1．67、2．11nmol／dm^3；其中于0．2～0．4μm粒级间的颗粒物含Pb的量为0．42nmol/dm^3；于1．0～0．4μm粒级间的颗粒物含Pb的量为0．44nmol／dm^3。     

论环境法与自然资源法的独立性与协同统一化

从环境与自然资源的价值对比分析入手对环境与自然资源、环境权与自然资源权两组概念进行了区分 ,在此基础上论证了环境法和自然资源法的调整对象、基本内容与中心问题的不同 ,从而证明了环境法与自然资源法体系的独立性。由于环境与自然资源、环境权与自然资源权的区分是相对的 ,因此 ,环境法与自然资源法体系的独立性也是相对的。进而对环境法与自然资源法协同统一的理论与现实基础、合并后的部门法名称、概念和体系的重整等问题进行了研究     

Identification of the largest individual sample value using composite sample data and certain modifications of the sweep-out method

Cost-effective hotspot identification is an important issue in hazardous waste site characterization and evaluation. Composite sampling techniques are known to be cost effective when the cost of measurement is substantially higher than the cost of sampling. Although compositing incurs no loss of information on the means, information on individual sample values is lost due to compositing. In particular, if the interest is in identifying the largest individual sample value, the composite sampling techniques are not able to do so. Under certain assumptions, it may be possible to satisfactorily predict individual sample values using the composite sample data, but it is not generally possible to identify the largest individual sample value. In this paper, we propose two methods of identifying the largest individual sample value with some additional measurement effort. Both methods are modifications of the simple sweep-out method proposed earlier. Since analytical results do not seem to be feasible, performance of the proposed methods is assessed via simulation. The simulation results show that both the proposed methods, namely the locally sequential sweep-out and the globally sequential sweep-out, are better than the simple sweep-out method.Prepared with partial support from the Statistical Analysis and Computing Branch, Environmental Statistics and Information Division, Office of Policy, Planning, and Evaluation, United States Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC under a Cooperative Agreement Number CR-821531. The contents have not been subjected to Agency review and therefore do not necessarily reflect the views of the Agency and no official endorsement should be inferred.     

USE OF THE KRIGING METHOD FOR STUDYING CHARACTERISTICS OF GROUND WATER DROUGHTS1

round water drought events were derived by taking a truncation level through the time series of daily ground water depth that are recorded elevation differences between the water table and land surface at a well site. Droughts of various truncation levels at 70, 80, 90, and 95 percent, were obtained, where a 70 percent truncation level means that 70 percent of ground water depth data are less than or equal to the truncated value. The conditional probability that a drought occurring at a certain truncation level will prolong and advance to that of the next higher level was estimated. The regionalization analysis was conducted assuming that conditional probabilities estimated at selected wells are regionalized variables. Contour lines of conditional probabilities for each truncation level were constructed to express their spatial variability in the region. Estimation errors associated with the regionalization were reasonably small.