Spatiotemporal dynamics in variable population interactions with density-dependent interaction coefficients

In this article, I present a two-patch metapopulation model with locally explicit dynamics to study the effect of spatial heterogeneity and dispersal upon population interactions with variable or conditional outcomes. These are interactions that may be either detrimental or beneficial for each species depending on the balance of the density-dependent costs and benefits involved. The local dynamics respond to density-dependent α-interaction functions that may change sign, thus yielding a diversity of possible local outcomes for the association in terms of type of interaction and in the number of stable solutions. The spatiotemporal model predicts that the fragmentation of space and dispersal between patches may cause further variation in these outcomes. First, the demographic performance of a species in the association is enhanced if migrations cause a proportional increase of individuals of its own species; being so, a victim may become a mutualist or an exploiter, an excluded species may invade, and a good competitor may overcome its own carrying capacity: the ‘enhancement effect of dispersal’; a sort of rescue effect in source-sink dynamics. The underlying mechanisms involve an interplay between density-dependent effects of dispersal per se and the relative local and global average α-interaction functions, which involve costs and benefits at both the local and regional level that may either counteract or reinforce each other; thus, localities and/or populations may change dynamically their sink or source role in the spatial dynamics. A significant insight arises herewith: in the context of variable or conditional interactions the concept of the role of a species does not make strict sense; it becomes a spatiotemporal dynamic quality. Second, regardless of which species disperses, bifurcation of equilibria may occur in those patches that receive the migrating individuals, and annihilation of equilibria in those from where migration leaves; thus, the number of equilibria increases or decreases accordingly.     

国家公园游客旅游生态补偿支付意愿及影响因素研究——以黄山风景区为例

了解与把握游客的旅游生态补偿支付意愿是实施旅游生态补偿政策的前提之一。以黄山风景区为例,通过问卷调查和条件价值法获取游客的支付意愿信息,并运用二元Logistic回归分析法从游客个人特征、旅游环境影响认知、游客满意度、重游意愿、生态补偿认知等4个方面对游客旅游生态补偿支付意愿的影响因素进行研究,旨在为国家公园旅游生态补偿机制的构建提供依据。结果表明:(1)国家公园游客具有较高的旅游生态补偿支付意愿。86.7%的游客表示愿意在每次游览黄山风景区支付旅游生态补偿金,仅有13.3%的游客不愿意支付。游客的支付意愿与游客自身的角色定位密切相关。(2)从回归结果来看,游客的性别、年龄、重游意愿和补偿必要性认知对旅游生态补偿支付意愿具有显著影响,女性游客支付意愿高于男性,年龄与支付意愿呈显著负相关,重游意愿和补偿必要性认知与其呈显著正相关关系。学历水平、月收入、旅游环境影响认知、满意度和补偿政策认知等变量对支付意愿在10%的显著性水平下不存在显著影响。但从统计结果来看,学历水平、黄山环境质量评价、环境破坏的担心度、生态环境的重要性、满意度对游客的支付意愿有一定的正向作用,游客月收入水平和补偿政策认知与支付意愿呈倒"U"型非线性关系。     

基于集对可拓耦合算法的尾矿库安全综合评价

针对尾矿库安全综合评价中“定性定量评价尾矿库安全等级”和“客观描述尾矿库安全状态变化趋势”的要求,采用集对分析方法和可拓理论,利用可拓距计算原理,建立尾矿库集对可拓耦合安全评价模型和尾矿库集对势的计算方法。利用RSCIE权重计算方法确定尾矿库评价指标的权重,将基于集对可拓耦合算法的尾矿库安全评价模型用于尾矿库各安全等级集对可拓联系度的分析中,并基于最大隶属度原则确定案例中的尾矿库为正常库,其集对可拓联系度为0.040 6,安全状态的集对势为9.26。结果表明:该尾矿库的安全等级为正常库,且其安全状态发展趋势为弱同势,说明尾矿库的安全状况发展趋势为正常库的态势不强,且向不安全状态转变的可能非常大,应该加强该尾矿库的日常安全管理。这与实际情况相符合,有效验证了该评价模型的可行性和实用性。     

传感器布设中有效独立法的简捷快速算法

本文提出一个通过正交三角分解快速计算有效独立法系数的方法。有效独立法是传感器布设中影响最广泛的一种方法,它使目标模态尽可能线性独立。传统的有效独立法计算需要对信息阵进行特征值分解或者计算矩阵逆,计算量较大。本文在笔者以前得出的有效独立法与模态动能法关系的基础上,提出先通过对模态矩阵进行正交三角分解(QR),然后比较其行范数即可得到有效独立法的系数,进而对各待选传感器位置进行排序并迭代依次删除。在待选传感器位置比感兴趣的模态数较多时,该法的计算效率明显提高。同时,采用正交三角分解删除一行后的更新算法,进一步提高了迭代计算的效率。最后通过I-40桥的算例表明该法的有效性。     

南京市北郊夏季挥发性有机物的源解析

2012年8月利用在线气相色谱仪对南京市北郊大气环境中的挥发性有机物(VOCs)进行连续监测,分析VOCs时间变化规律,并利用PMF(positive matrix factorization)受体模型和CPF(conditional probability function)方法对其来源进行解析.结果表明,南京市北郊夏季VOCs日变化呈双峰分布,小时平均体积分数为(33.84±27.77)×10-9,夜间高于昼间.其中含量最高的是烷烃,其次是烯烃和芳烃,分别占到总挥发性有机物(TVOCs)的49.3%、24.4%和18.5%,乙炔占7.8%.南京市北郊夏季VOCs主要来源有5个,分别是交通尾气、燃料挥发、工业排放、有机溶剂挥发和植物排放源,各自对TVOCs贡献为33.1%、25.8%、23.2%、8.1%和9.7%.烷烃主要来源于汽车尾气排放、工业排放和燃料挥发,贡献百分比分别为23.7%、35.3%和31.3%;烯烃主要来源于燃料挥发、工业排放和汽车尾气排放,分别占41.1%、18.4%和24.3%;对芳烃贡献最大的为汽车尾气排放,占到49.2%,其次是有机溶剂挥发排放占30.8%.     

地沟油脱胶工艺条件优化

研究地沟油的脱胶工艺,比较了磷酸脱胶、水脱胶和磷酸-水联合脱胶3种方法的脱胶效果,考察了脱胶温度、磷酸用量、酸化时间、水用量和水化时间对磷酸-水联合脱胶效果的影响,并通过正交试验对其脱胶条件进行了优化。结果表明,磷酸脱胶、水脱胶和磷酸-水联合脱胶的脱胶率分别为8.78%、68.18%和79.32%;磷酸-水联合脱胶的最优脱胶条件为:脱胶温度60℃,磷酸用量0.1%,酸化时间40 min,水用量3%,水化时间30 min,在此条件下,脱胶率为96.70%。因此,磷酸-水联合脱胶可除去地沟油中的胶体,达到生物柴油原料的要求。     

基于多通道分布式VOCs在线监测质谱系统精准识别企业污染源

建立一套适用于工业园区VOCs无组织排放的监管溯源系统,该系统通过多通道分布式质谱在企业内部和厂界进行多个在线监测点位连续监测,实现对VOCs的无组织排放污染源的初步识别.监测数据结合正交矩阵因子分解(PMF)模型和二元条件概率函数(CBPF)方法精准识别园区内不同范围尺度的污染源.该系统成功应用于台州市化工园区内某医...     

京津冀区域清洁取暖的支付意愿和影响因素

通过对北京、保定、太原、晋城等城市的农村地区实地走访和问卷调查,获取农村居民的清洁取暖支付意愿情况,基于条件价值评估法构建多元回归模型,对居民清洁取暖支付意愿及其影响因素进行测算分析.结果表明,80％以上的受访者对清洁取暖补贴政策有所了解,但有32.8％的受访者对现行补贴标准表示不满,受访者清洁取暖支付意愿平均为292...     

禹城地区土壤铅含量空间分布的指示克里格估值

以鲁西北禹城地区土壤重金属Pb含量为例,针对其存在特异值与偏态分布的特点,利用指示克里格法研究了土壤Pb含量小于特定阈值的条件概率分布,分析了该地区土壤Pb含量的空间分布特征,并对普通克里格和指示克里格的估值效果进行交叉验证。结果表明：研究区土壤Pb含量总体较低,未超过国家标准的限值,但不同部位土壤Pb含量差异较大;普通克里格法和指示克里格法形成的土壤Pb含量空间分布格局相似,但普通克里格法的平滑效果强于指示克里格法;研究区域土壤环境质量总体良好,Pb含量高值区主要集中在各乡镇驻地附近的农田;指示克里格对土壤Pb含量空间估值的精度优于普通克里格,指示克里格法更适用于原始数据呈非正态分布且特异值对估值结果有较大影响的土壤属性。本研究结果为该地区土壤环境质量评价和重金属污染防控提供科学依据。     

Resilience-based approach to safety barrier performance assessment in process facilities

The performance assessment of safety barriers is essential to find vulnerable elements in a safety barrier system. Traditional performance assessment approaches mainly focus on using several static indicators for quantifying the performance of safety barriers. However, with the increasing complexity of the system, emerging hazards are highly uncertain, making it challenging for the static indicators to assess the performance of safety barriers. This paper proposes a resilience−based performance assessment method for safety barriers to overcome this problem. Safety barriers are classified according to their functions first. The dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) is then introduced to calculate the availability function under normal and disruption conditions. The ratio of the system's availability, when affected by the disruption, to the initial availability, is used to determine the absorption capacity of the system. The ratio of the quantity of availability recovery to the total quantity of system represents the adaptation and restoration capacity of the system. The system's resilience is represented by the sum of absorption, adaptation, and restoration capacities. The wax oil hydrogenation process is used to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed methodology.