Filyos River Streamflow Reconstruction from Tree‐Ring Chronologies with Nonparametric Approaches

The article presents nonparametric methods based on K nearest neighbors (KNNs), modified KNNs, and local polynomial techniques to reconstruct streamflow ensembles from tree‐ring data in Filyos River region (Turkey). Three methods were tested using cross‐validation for the overlap period, 1963‐1997 for which the tree‐ring and streamflow data are available. It was found that for the study where the length of the overlap period was limited, a nonparametric method based on a local polynomial technique provides simulations that have a slightly better solution than the other methods. After verification using standard statistical techniques, these methods were utilized to develop streamflow reconstructions from tree‐ring data for the paleo‐hydrologic period (1657‐1963). These reconstructions of seasonal low and high flows were discussed with the obtained flood duration curve. They were also compared with the historical archives and other tree‐ring reconstructions data available in the same river. Overall, the utility and limitations of these methods and the resulting streamflow simulations were discussed to assess the long‐term discharge behavior of Filyos River and to evaluate water supply reliability.     

GIS与大气质量模型结合的探讨

从GIS与大气环境质量模型结合的必要性入手 ,对GIS在大气环境质量模型中的应用、所起作用进行了回顾 ,同时就二者结合的基本方式、步骤、框架等作了一些探讨 ,并指出了其未来的发展趋势。 更多还原      

生物膜填料床内废气净化的理论模型

介绍了废气生物净化技术的基本原理，并对废气生物净化技术中的生物过滤法和生物滴滤法的理论模型研究进展进行了综述，探讨了理有理论模型存在的主要问题。     

低分子量有机酸提取土壤中部分重金属的拟合模型研究

为研究不同浓度低分子量有机酸与提取的土壤重金属含量之间的关系,本文以采自安徽省安庆市某铜矿区及其周围的土壤为例,通过浸提法,研究了不同浓度苹果酸、甲酸对采样点土壤中重金属Cu、Mn、Zn、Pb提取能力的影响并进行模型拟合.结果表明:不同浓度苹果酸和甲酸对采样点土壤中重金属的提取量不同,两种有机酸对低pH、高重金属含量采样点及其周围土壤中的重金属提取量较大,两种低分子量有机酸对S6采样点的重金属Mn的提取量最大,分别为322.5 mg·kg~(-1)和193.58 mg·kg~(-1),提取率达70.02%和42.03%,Zn、Pb次之,Cu最低;随着苹果酸、甲酸浓度的升高,土壤中重金属Cu、Mn、Zn、Pb的提取量增加,苹果酸对土壤中重金属的提取能力大于甲酸;拟合模型对于两种低分子量有机酸与其提取的土壤中部分重金属含量之间的关系,具有较好的拟合性,其决定系数R~2在0.8293～0.9990之间,都具有显著性(p0.05),该模型可以定量表征低分子量有机酸对土壤重金属的提取能力,此研究结果为土壤中重金属的固定化和增强植物修复受重金属污染的土壤提供了理论支持.     

环境模型在风险评估中的应用

环境模型方法是化学品风险评估中经常使用的方法。环境模型可提供化学品的浓度、归趋和主要迁移转化途径等信息,目前已被广泛应用于各类环境系统中。本文对该方法使用的一般步骤进行介绍,并对我国的环境模型工作提出了几点建议。     

Will Evolving Climate Conditions Increase the Risk of Floods of the Large U.S.‐Canada Transboundary Richelieu River Basin?

In spring 2011, an unprecedented flood hit the complex eastern United States (U.S.)–Canada transboundary Lake Champlain–Richelieu River (LCRR) Basin, destructing properties and inducing negative impacts on agriculture and fish habitats. The damages, covered by the Governments of Canada and the U.S., were estimated to C$90M. This natural disaster motivated the study of mitigation measures to prevent such disasters from reoccurring. When evaluating flood risks, long‐term evolving climate change should be taken into account to adopt mitigation measures that will remain relevant in the future. To assess the impacts of climate change on flood risks of the LCRR basin, three bias‐corrected multi‐resolution ensembles of climate projections for two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios were used to force a state‐of‐the‐art, high‐resolution, distributed hydrological model. The analysis of the hydrological simulations indicates that the 20‐year return period flood (corresponding to a medium flood) should decrease between 8% and 35% for the end of the 21st Century (2070–2099) time horizon and for the high‐emission scenario representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5. The reduction in flood risks is explained by a decrease in snow accumulation and an increase in evapotranspiration expected with the future warming of the region. Nevertheless, due to the large climate inter‐annual variability, short‐term flood probabilities should remain similar to those experienced in the recent past.     

最低气温对兰州市呼吸系统疾病就诊人次的影响研究

通过2013年1月1日~2017年7月31日兰州市呼吸系统疾病逐日就诊资料和气象资料,采用分布滞后非线性模型（DLNM）方法,分析0~30d滞后影响,研究极端低温对不同年龄（<15岁、16~45岁、46~60岁、>60岁）和性别人群呼吸系统疾病就诊人次的影响.结果发现：日均最低温度对相对危险度（RR）的最大RR变化范围为0.89~1.41,变化趋势整体呈现出V字型,在低温附近,温度越低,RR越高;滞后0~4d,极端低温代表的冷效应影响最为显著;滞后5~19d,在日均最低温度0℃附近,出现新的峰值,冷效应对RR的贡献有所下降,热效应对RR的贡献完全消失;滞后20~30d,日均最低温度为-10℃时,出现RR最小值,0℃温度点附近维持RR峰值;滞后22d时,滞后影响完全消失.在极端低温条件下,呼吸系统疾病对低龄人群表现出长期滞后性和高发性,对高龄人群表现出短期滞后性.男性比女性患病的滞后效应更长,患病风险更大.     

苯酚、2,4-二氯酚与苯胺类化合物联合毒性效益

采用藻类生长抑制实验测定了苯酚、2,4-二氯酚与6种苯胺衍生物对斜生栅列藻的单一毒性和二元混合物的联合毒性,得到化合物单独存在时的半抑制浓度EC50和共存时的半抑制浓度EC50mix。采用毒性单位法、相加指数法、混合毒性指数法和相似性参数法进行联合毒性评价,结果表明：苯酚＋2,4-二氯胺、苯酚＋二苯胺及苯酚＋苯胺等毒性混合时主要表现为协同作用;而其它二元混合物采用不同方法评价联合毒性结果有差异。当苯酚与苯胺按照不同毒性配比混合时（1︰4,4︰1,1︰1,2︰1）,表现为协同作用。以辛醇/水分配系数法为结构描述符,分别建立了单一毒性和联合毒性的定量构效关系（QSAR）模型。结果表明,苯酚、2,4-二氯酚与苯胺类化合物对斜生栅列藻的毒性主要与化合物在生物体内的分配作用有关。