基于风险的大型储罐检验周期制定

介绍了目前在用的几种大型储罐检验周期的制定方法,并对其特点进行了分析对比,重点介绍了运用基于风险的检验制定检验周期的方法。     

一种基于区间数的施工企业安全评价模型

施工企业安全评价是一种多指标综合决策行为,评价指标值具有模糊性,可以利用区间数进行量化.基于上述思路,提出了一种基于区间数的施工企业安全评价模型.首先定义评价对象与评价标准的单指标距离测度,然后利用线性评价函数和区间数运算法则计算评价对象与评价标准之间的综合距离测度,评价对象的安全状况属于综合距离测度最小值对应的等级.该模型物理意义明确,计算过程简捷,最大限度地保留了评价系统的原始信息.给出了一个应用实例说明了模型的应用方法,评价结果表明,该方法结论合理可信.     

Cronbach's alpha reliability: Interval estimation,hypothesis testing,and sample size planning

Cronbach's alpha is one of the most widely used measures of reliability in the social and organizational sciences. Current practice is to report the sample value of Cronbach's alpha reliability, but a confidence interval for the population reliability value also should be reported. The traditional confidence interval for the population value of Cronbach's alpha makes an unnecessarily restrictive assumption that the multiple measurements have equal variances and equal covariances. We propose a confidence interval that does not require equal variances or equal covariances. The results of a simulation study demonstrated that the proposed method performed better than alternative methods. We also present some sample size formulas that approximate the sample size requirements for desired power or desired confidence interval precision. R functions are provided that can be used to implement the proposed confidence interval and sample size methods. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

区间数的饮用水源地健康风险模糊综合评价

利用区间数表示饮用水源地水环境中污染物浓度的不确定性,构建了基于区间数的饮用水源地水质导致的健康风险评价模型。同时,建立模糊化的风险评价标准体系,将风险评价标准分为低、低-中、中、中-高、高和极高6个风险等级,并运用综合评判法得出健康风险评价的等级。选取饮用水源地水环境中多种污染物为评价因子,将基于区间数和模糊理论的饮用水源地水环境健康风险模糊综合评价模型应用于9个城市饮用水源地水环境健康风险评价中。评价结果表明:重庆、广州、乌鲁木齐等3个城市水源地的水环境健康风险水平较高;儿童和青少年的个人年风险明显高于成人的个人年风险。     

Reality and risk of contact-type head injuries related to bicycle-mounted child seats

Objective

The authors have treated numerous children who have been injured by falling from bicycle-mounted child seats. Despite the greatly increased use of such seats, the understanding of their risk and the importance of helmet use remains alarmingly poor. The objective of this study was to confirm the risk of bicycle-mounted child seats and to evaluate the efficacy of helmets, seat belts, and back seat height in terms of preventing or mitigating contact-type head impacts that occur in falls from bicycle-mounted child seats.

Materials and methods

Biometrical dummy tests were performed to examine contact-type head injuries in falls from stationary bicycles. A bicycle with an anthropometric test dummy placed in a bicycle-mounted child seat was tipped over. Each test was repeated three times and three-dimensional acceleration was measured using accelerometer. Head Injury Criteria (HIC) were calculated and the respective influences of a helmet, a seat belt, and increased height of the back of the seat on such impacts were evaluated.

Results

Only helmets unequivocally lowered maximal acceleration and/or HIC values with statistical significance. The seat belt lowered HIC values as long as it was used with the high-back seat. Only when the dummy wore a helmet sitting in a high-back seat did the HIC show less than the threshold of 570 for three-year-old children. The HIC showed the lowest score of 161.5 when the dummy wore both a helmet and a seat belt sitting in a high-back seat.

Conclusions

Riders in bicycle-mounted child seats definitely have higher risks of contact-type head injuries. In transporting a child on a bicycle-mounted child seat, parents must use both a child-bicycle helmet and a high-back child seat at least; a seat belt is highly recommended as long as it is used with the other safety devices.

Impact on Industry

The bicycle-mounted child seat should have a high enough back and an appropriate seat belt to protect the head of the child from a contact-type injury.     

基于证据推理客运索道安全性评估

在比较分析现有各种评估方法的基础上,提出基于证据推理的安全性评估方法。在评估过程中,首先确定评价因素集及相应的权重和评价等级及评价等级效用值,然后利用解析算法进行证据的合成,并根据方案最终效用值到各评语等级效用值之间距离的大小确定评价等级。最后,将该方法运用于某客运索道安全评估,得出客运索道安全性评价为较好,并通过与模糊综合评价方法相比,进一步论证了该方法的可行性和有效性。     

Maternal investment in mountain baboons and the hypothesis of reduced care

It has been argued that female mammals should terminate expensive forms of infant care earlier as habitat quality declines. More recently it has been shown that among a variety of mammalian species, early termination of care is also associated with highly favourable conditions. In this paper we present data on maternal investment decisions among baboons (Papio cynocephalus ursinus) inhabiting the Drakensberg Mountains of South Africa, and compare these with data from East African baboon studies. Mothers in the mountain habitat face a set of environmental conditions where the problem of resource allocation to offspring is expected to be particularly acute. We begin by using the model of Altmann (1980) of maternal time budgets to demonstrate that mountain baboon mothers experience greater perturbations to their activity budgets while suckling than do mothers in other populations. They also provide consistently greater levels of care to their infants and do so in the absence of any form of overt conflict over access to the nipple. Although this investment results in a relative lengthening of the interbirth interval (IBI), it is accompanied by relatively higher infant survival. We argue that factors that influence the maternal strategy adopted by mountain baboons include slow infant growth rates and a lack of predation in the habitat which influences probability of offspring survival beyond the immediate postnatal period. We suggest that both “care-dependent” sources of mortality (e.g. female reproductive condition, the amount of milk transferred to offspring) as well as “care independent” sources of mortality (e.g. predation, infectious disease) should be considered in studies of parental investment. Received: 26 May 1997 / Accepted after revision: 9 August 1997     

灾区居民重建信心及其影响因素研究

汶川地震已2周年了.研究灾区居民的重建信心及影响因素,有利于有针对性采取措施增强他们的重建信心,充分发挥其重建主体作用,从而为实现各项重建任务目标奠定基础,并为青海玉树的灾后重建提供经验借鉴.因此研究受灾群众的重建信心具有重要意义,但相关理论与实证研究鲜见.本文通过回顾国内外的有关文献,构建起评价受灾群众重建信心指标体系,通过2008年8月、2009年2月、2010年1月三个不同时点对五大极重灾县(市)近3 000个样本实证分析,结果表明:不同受灾群众的重建信心在不同时点具有显著差异,目前重建信心有下降趋势;因灾受伤情况越严重、除房屋外因灾财产损失及地震对工作经营或生产影响越大的群体,其重建信心总体上越弱;随着时间推移,"震前经济状况"不同的受灾群众之间的重建信心差异由不显著向显著转变,而"银行住房贷款"数量不同的受灾群体之间的重建信心差异由显著向不显著转变.     

Bioefficacy,dissipation kinetics and safety evaluation of selected insecticides in Allium cepa L

This paper reports the bioefficacy of selected insecticides against thrips and their pre-harvest intervals (PHI) in onion pertaining to their recommended application rates and maximum residue limits. Profenophos, methomyl and imidacloprid showed comparatively higher bioefficacy against thrips. GC-MS and LC-MS/MS-based residue analysis methods in onion bulbs and composite matrix of bulbs+leaves were thoroughly validated. The residue data for bulb+leaves was assessed with reference to the EU-MRLs applicable for spring onion. Dimethoate was the most stable chemical with PHI of 52.5 days, followed by monocrotophos (24 days) and carbofuran (20.5 days). The PHIs of profenophos, chlorpyrifos, methomyl and cypermethrin were similar and within the range of 10–13 days. Imidacloprid and λ-cyhalothrin had similar PHI of 4.5 days. Spinosad was the fastest-degrading chemical with PHI of 2 days. The combined bioefficacy and residue dynamics information will support label-claim of these insecticides for the management of thrips in onion, help in scheduling their applications in pest management program as per relative PHIs and minimize the residue accumulations at harvest. The dietary exposure was less than the maximum permissible intake for most of the insecticides on all sampling days except for dimethoate and monocrotophos.     

基于纳污能力控制的省区初始排污权ITSP配置模型

省区初始排污权配置具有多阶段性、复杂性及不确定性特征。面向水功能区限制纳污红线约束,根据省区初始排污权配置的基本假设,引入区间数和随机数来描述不确定性信息,以因省区初始排污权配置产生的经济效益为第1个阶段,以因承担减排责任而可能产生的治污损失为第2个阶段,设计实现流域经济效益最优的目标函数,并以配置结果能够体现社会效益、生态环境效益和社会经济发展连续性为约束条件,构建基于纳污能力控制的省区初始排污权区间两阶段随机规划(ITSP)配置模型,分水污染物类别确定不同减排情形下的省区初始排污权配置方案。在三种减排情形下,2020年太湖流域各省区的初始排污权配置结果表明:1江苏省、浙江省和上海市的COD初始排污权配置区间量没有明显变化,其NH3-N和TP初始排污权配置区间量总体呈上升或递增趋势;2太湖流域各省区因初始排污权的配置产生的总体经济效益最优区间数分别为[335.35,399.75]亿元、[336.63,401.11]亿元和[339.08,402.74]亿元,最优区间数的下限值、上限值及期望值总体呈上升或递增趋势。分类确定不同减排情形下的配置方案,并提出方案实施的政策建议,为排污权配置决策提供更为准确的决策空间。