基于心态指标的煤矿瓦斯爆炸区间数模糊评价

为了评估煤矿瓦斯爆炸的安全性,根据瓦斯爆炸的形成条件和事故致因理论,建立了评价体系。然后采用一种新的区间数模糊评价方法,建立数学模型。传统的区间数模糊评价方法是根据最大隶属度原则判断该对象的优劣,不能进行多个对象之间的评价。该方法综合考虑了最大隶属度和评语集,提出区间数的内积公式,进而得到每个对象的综合分数,通过比较其大小进行多个对象之间的评价。考虑到决策者不同心态时对决策方案的影响,引入心态指标,通过调节心态指标来比较综合分数,从而得出煤矿之间的安全性大小。最后,将该方法应用到3所煤矿,运用基于中点值的区间数排序方法对综合评判向量进行分析,所得结果与该方法的结果基本一致,从而验证该方法的正确性。     

Reversed association between levels of prostate specific antigen and levels of blood cadmium and urinary cadmium

Prostate cancer associated with cadmium exposure may indicate a link between prostate specific antigen (PSA) and levels of blood cadmium (BCd) and urinary cadmium (UCd). Thus, these associations were investigated. We recruited 295 men, 50 years of age and above from a health check-up program at a health center as subjects of the study. They completed a self-reported questionnaire and provided fasting samples of blood and urine for cadmium assay. The assay was performed using atomic absorption spectrophotometry. Blood samples were also collected for the assays of total cholesterol and high-density lipoprotein measures. The means of BCd and UCd increased with age and the means of all subjects were 1.19 ± 1.04 μg L⁻¹ and 1.37 ± 1.76 μg g⁻¹ creatinine, respectively. The PSA levels were positively associated with the lipid levels, but reversely associated with BCd and UCd levels. The multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that men with PSA ? 4.0 ng mL⁻¹ had an odds ratio (OR) of 0.4 (95% CI = 0.1-0.9) to have BCd > 0.49 μg L⁻¹, and an OR of 0.4 (95% CI = 0.2-1.0) to have UCd > 0.45 μg g⁻¹ creatinine. In conclusion, the PSA levels are reversely associated with BCd and UCd levels.     

Social and ecological factors affecting paternity allocation in American robins with overlapping broods

Factors that affect extra-pair mating in birds are likely to vary across the breeding season. Changing densities of active nests may alter the opportunities for extra-pair mating, and parental duties may alter a male’s opportunity to guard his mate from extra-pair mating. The latter affects species with multiple broods, where males care for fledglings from first nests while females initiate second nests. We studied a population of multi-brooded American robins (Turdus migratorius) to assess how seasonal changes in nesting density and changes in mate-guarding opportunity influenced paternity patterns over successive breeding attempts. Extra-pair paternity (EPP) occurred in 71.9% of broods and accounted for 48.1% of young. High nesting densities in the study population may explain the high overall rate of EPP, but seasonal variation in breeding density did not explain patterns of EPP among nests. Contrary to the predictions of the mate-guarding hypothesis, EPP did not increase in the second nests that followed successful first nests, and the percentage of extra-pair young in second nests did not decline as the overlap between successive nests increased. The fact that EPP was actually lower when the interval between clutches was shorter suggests that the sooner the males can assume sole care of first broods and allow their mates to renest (indicative of superior paternal quality), the more paternity they realize in the next nest. These results suggest that mate-guarding opportunity does not influence paternity in this population of American robins and that female robins may allocate paternity based on their assessment of male parental performance at first nests.     

基于模糊信息概率区间数的突发地质灾害降水因子评价研究

根据2010、2012两年云南省的820个地质灾害监测记录,基于模糊信息概率区间数的大小来开展降水量因子的评价研究。结果表明:突发地质灾害发生前10 d的单日降水量与灾害的关系很小,基本不能用于预警模型的建立和风险评价分析;累积降水量与突发地质灾害关系明显,特别是5~10 d的累积降水量预测概括率已达60%以上,可以用于突发地质灾害预警模型的建立和实际的监测预警;加衰减系数的有效累积降水量因子对突发地质灾害预测效果并无提升,与普通累积降水量因子相比并无优势。     

ANALYZING CORRELATIONS BETWEEN STREAM AND WATERSHED ATTRIBUTES1

ABSTRACT: Bivariate correlation analysis has been widely used to explore relationships between stream and watershed attributes that have all been measured on the same set of watersheds or sampling locations. Researchers routinely test H₀: ρ= 0 for each correlation in a large table and then go on to discuss only those that are declared “significant.” Such test results are inaccurate because no allowance is made for multiple testing, and also because the tests are not mutually independent. This paper reviews the Bonferroni approach to controlling the overall error rate in multiple testing and shows how the approach becomes impractical for large correlation tables. The Hotelling/Williams test is introduced for comparing two dependent correlations that share a variable, and numerical constraints for two such correlations are illustrated. References are also given for testing other hypothesized patterns among dependent correlations, and links to dependent correlation software are provided. The methods are illustrated for watershed and stream variables sampled in 23 small agricultural watersheds of the Willamette Valley, Oregon.     

PFU微型生物群落水质鉴别及群落参数变化模式的研究

基于ＰＦＵ微型生物群落参数调查数据，对湖北省汉江两条污染带１１个站 和湖南常德市水系１５个站点所属水质组别进行了综合分析研究。所得典型鉴别函数能够对水质组别作出有效的鉴别，分类函数对站点的水质组别分类正确率达到９６％；群落参数对化学综合污染指数的响应不呈简单的线性关系，群落的变化存在一定模式。     

一种灾害等级的区间数评估模型

由于灾害损失本身的复杂性及灾情统计方面存在的问题,利用区间数替代单一实数值作为灾害等级评估指标的输入更加符合实际。基于上述思路,提出了一种基于区间数的灾害等级评估新模型。首先,给出区间数距离的新定义,该定义能够充分利用区间数所携带的信息;然后,利用线性加权评价函数计算评估对象与评价标准之间的综合相对距离测度,评估对象隶属于综合距离测度最小值所对应的灾害等级。该模型建模过程思路清晰,物理意义明确,计算过程简捷,评估结论符合实际。最后,用实例说明模型的应用方法。     

鄂尔多斯周缘地震带中长期地震趋势估计

本文基于一定的地震资料,分别应用最大熵原理、贝努里概型以及计算地震复发周期的经验关系式,对鄂尔多斯周缘地震带进行了中强地震的中长期地震趋势估计。     

Factors influencing length of maternal care in brown bears (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Ursus arctos</Emphasis>) and its effect on offspring

Length of maternal care, i.e. the interval between successfully raised litters, is the most important factor explaining the variation in reproductive rate among brown-bear (Ursus arctos) populations. In this paper, we examine the variation in length of maternal care in radio-marked brown bears and its effect on their offspring in northern Sweden. Young stayed with their mothers for 1.4–1.5 or 2.4–2.5 (in one case 3.5) years and were weaned with body masses varying from 17 to 69 kg. The probability of yearling litters staying with their mother for a 2nd year increased with decreasing yearling body mass, and was higher for litters with two offspring than for litters with one or three to four offspring. Staying with their mothers for a 2nd year had a positive effect on mass gain in yearlings and this effect was more pronounced in litters with two than three to four offspring. Body mass of 2-year-olds was not related to age of weaning, suggesting that keeping offspring for an additional year mainly compensated for low yearling body mass. If large offspring body mass positively affects later offspring survival and reproduction, mothers may be able to optimize the length of maternal care according to the litter size and the size of their yearlings.Communicated by F. Trillmich