What happens to the state in conflict?: political analysis as a tool for planning humanitarian assistance

It is now part of received wisdom that humanitarian assistance in conflict and post-conflict situations may be ineffective or even counterproductive in the absence of an informed understanding of the broader political context in which so-called 'complex political emergencies' (CPEs) occur. Though recognising that specific cases have to be understood in their own terms, this article offers a framework for incorporating political analysis in policy design. It is based on a programme of research on a number of countries in Africa and Asia over the last four years. It argues that the starting-point should be an analysis of crises of authority within contemporary nation-states which convert conflict (a feature of all political systems) into violent conflict; of how such conflict may in turn generate more problems for, or even destroy, the state; of the deep-rooted political, institutional and developmental legacies of political violence; and of the difficulties that complicate the restoration of legitimate and effective systems of governance after the 'termination' of conflict. It then lists a series of questions which such an analysis would need to ask--less in order to provide a comprehensive check-list than to uncover underlying political processes and links. It is hoped these may be used not only to understand the political dynamics of emergencies, but also to identify what kinds of policy action should and should not be given priority by practitioners.     

省沽油中硒含量及其测定方法研究

采用消化液硝酸／高氯酸消解法、硝酸-硫酸消解法和微波消解方法消化省沽油，用原子吸收分光光度法测定硒（Se）含量。比较了3种消解方法在测定省沽油中的硒含量。发现微波消解法测定野生省沽油（干菜）中Se含量准确性好、时间段效率高、对环境污染少、操作简单。     

Conflict, camps and coercion: the ongoing livelihoods crisis in Darfur

This paper presents the findings of a study commissioned by World Food Programme (WFP) in early 2006 to enhance understanding of how the conflict in Darfur has affected livelihoods and markets, and of the effects of food aid. The livelihoods of many in Darfur were devastated early on in the conflict, principally through the widespread looting or destruction of assets and highly restricted population movements, which struck at the heart of pre-conflict livelihoods. Livelihood strategies for most people are now restricted, poorly remunerated and often associated with high risk of attack. Patterns of coercion and exploitation have also become entrenched; and markets and trade, the lifeblood of Da fur's economy pre-conflict, severely disrupted. Against this backdrop the impact of food aid on livelihoods in Darfur has been overwhelmingly positive. The paper proposes a number of preconditions for investment in recovery in Darfur, and recommends ways in which livelihoods can be supported in the current context of ongoing conflict.     

Book Reviews

Books reviewed:
Tim Dyson, Population and Food: Global Trends and Future Prospects
R. S. J. Sparks, M. I. Bursik, S. N. Carey, J. S. Gilbert, L. S. Glaze, H. Sigurdsson and A. W. Woods, Volcanic Plumes
Jasper Becker, Hungry Ghosts: Mao's Secret Famine
Dali L. Yang, Calamity and Reform in China: State, Rural Society and Institutional Change Since the Great Leap Forward     

Two solitudes: post‐tsunami and post‐conflict Aceh

In August 2005, after the devastating tsunami in the Indian Ocean Basin, a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) for the cessation of hostilities was signed by Aceh's longstanding adversaries—the Government of Indonesia and the Free Aceh Movement (GAM). The tsunami was a major catalyst for ‘disaster diplomacy’—international political pressure, which, this paper argues, was an important ingredient in creating conditions for the MoU, although the situation within Aceh also shaped the peace process. Based on interviews conducted in 2006 and 2007 with government officials, GAM representatives and fighters, and non‐governmental organization staff in Aceh, this paper finds that assistance for tsunami survivors far exceeds that available for conflict survivors and ex‐combatants. The formation of these two solitudes—the tsunami‐affected and the conflict‐affected—compounds challenges for sustaining peace in Aceh. This research points to an enduring lack of livelihoods for former fighters and conflict victims that may threaten a sustainable peace.     

Sustaining co-operation for coastal sustainability

Coastal-zone sustainability policies are socially constructed. It follows that their effective implementation depends on the sustainable voluntary co-operation of stakeholders with competing interests and priorities. No form of integrated coastal-zone management can nurture such co-operation as long as the objective is to determine ‘best’ policies, derived by expert-based rational analysis, instead of seeking to identify ‘correct’ policies, ones that can draw the maximum possible stakeholder support. The latter task requires a co-operative coastal-zone management that incorporates the relevant public discourse into the policy formation process in a direct, proactive and conflict minimizing manner. Towards this end, four major challenges are examined for maximizing the stakeholders' motivation for voluntary co-operation: (1) optimism about the level of optimism; (2) agenda setting; (3) value discourse; and (4) information and empowerment.     

大渡河上游丹巴地区地质灾害的地貌分维特征解析

地貌对地质灾害的分布、类型、规模与危害等特征具有重要的影响,宏观及微观地貌指标均能在一定程度上刻画其作用特征。应用高分辨率遥感影像详细解译崩塌和滑坡灾害,采用高精度DEM和滑动窗口技术提取地貌分维特征,并用其解析灾害分布的地貌特征。结果表明:灾害体的内部与后壁、前缘、侧壁和邻区均表现出较为明显的分异性,崩塌的微地貌分异特征较之滑坡显著,大型、厚层、老(古)崩塌及滑坡分异特征更为突出。计算地貌分维值可有效识别与其同时期的或更早的地质灾害,也可间接挖掘新发生灾害的微地貌复杂性和离散性。     

When apologizing hurts: Felt transgression and restoration efforts

Apologizing is important for conflict resolution and relationship reconciliation, yet apologies often fail to restore the damaged relationship. While much research has been devoted to investigating the victims' reactions upon receiving an apology, in this paper, we adopt an apologizer-centric approach and explore the phenomenon of apologizing with no felt transgression (vis-à-vis when there is felt transgression) along with its affective and reconciliation outcomes for the apologizer. Based on Appraisal Tendency Framework, we predict that apologizing with no felt transgression will lead to reduced guilt and increased anger in the apologizer, which will result in a decreased level of their restoration efforts towards the victim. In addition, we further hypothesize about the role of organizational conflict cultures in influencing the relationship between apologizing and restoration efforts via guilt and anger. Study 1 uses a micro-narrative procedure and an inductive data analysis approach to demonstrate the varied situations and motivations of employees apologizing with (no) felt transgression, Study 2 utilizes an experimental design to examine the mediation effect, and Study 3 employs the critical incident technique to test our whole research model. Our hypotheses were largely supported across our studies. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed.     

Livelihoods,conflict and aid programming: is the evidence base good enough?

In conflict‐affected situations, aid‐funded livelihood interventions are often tasked with a dual imperative: to generate material welfare benefits and to contribute to peacebuilding outcomes. There may be some logic to such a transformative agenda, but does the reality square with the rhetoric? Through a review of the effectiveness of a range of livelihood promotion interventions—from job creation to microfinance—this paper finds that high quality empirical evidence is hard to come by in conflict‐affected situations. Many evaluations appear to conflate outputs with impacts and numerous studies fail to include adequate information on their methodologies and datasets, making it difficult to appraise the reliability of their conclusions. Given the primary purpose of this literature—to provide policy guidance on effective ways to promote livelihoods—this silence is particularly concerning. As such, there is a strong case to be made for a restrained and nuanced handling of such interventions in conflict‐affected settings.