The Role of Disaggregation of Asset Values in Flood Loss Estimation: A Comparison of Different Modeling Approaches at the Mulde River,Germany

In loss estimation there is a spatial mismatch of hazard data that are commonly modeled on an explicit raster level and exposure data that are often available only for aggregated administrative units. Usually disaggregation methods that use ancillary information to distribute lumped exposure data in a finer spatial resolution help to bridge this gap. However, the actual influence of different mapping techniques and ancillary data on the final loss estimation has not been analyzed yet. In this paper three methods are applied to disaggregate residential building assets using two kinds of land use/land cover (LULC) data. The resulting disaggregated assets are validated and compared using census data of the residential building number on the community and constituency level. In addition, the disaggregated assets are taken to estimate residential building losses due to the flood in August 2002 in 21 municipalities on the River Mulde in Saxony, Germany. Losses are calculated with the help of four loss models. In general, disaggregation helps to decrease the error variance within the loss estimation. It must, however, be stated that the application of sophisticated disaggregation methods does not lead to significant improvements compared to the straightforward binary method. Therefore more effort should instead be put into the provision of high-resolution LULC data. Finally, the remaining uncertainties in loss estimation are high and demand further improvements in all modeling aspects.     

Understanding Interaction Effects of Climate Change and Fire Management on Bird Distributions through Combined Process and Habitat Models

Abstract: Avian conservation efforts must account for changes in vegetation composition and structure associated with climate change. We modeled vegetation change and the probability of occurrence of birds to project changes in winter bird distributions associated with climate change and fire management in the northern Chihuahuan Desert (southwestern U.S.A.). We simulated vegetation change in a process‐based model (Landscape and Fire Simulator) in which anticipated climate change was associated with doubling of current atmospheric carbon dioxide over the next 50 years. We estimated the relative probability of bird occurrence on the basis of statistical models derived from field observations of birds and data on vegetation type, topography, and roads. We selected 3 focal species, Scaled Quail (Callipepla squamata), Loggerhead Shrike (Lanius ludovicianus), and Rock Wren (Salpinctes obsoletus), that had a range of probabilities of occurrence for our study area. Our simulations projected increases in relative probability of bird occurrence in shrubland and decreases in grassland and Yucca spp. and ocotillo (Fouquieria splendens) vegetation. Generally, the relative probability of occurrence of all 3 species was highest in shrubland because leaf‐area index values were lower in shrubland. This high probability of occurrence likely is related to the species’ use of open vegetation for foraging. Fire suppression had little effect on projected vegetation composition because as climate changed there was less fuel and burned area. Our results show that if future water limits on plant type are considered, models that incorporate spatial data may suggest how and where different species of birds may respond to vegetation changes.     

Priorities for Improving the Scientific Foundation of Conservation Policy in North America

Abstract:  The Society for Conservation Biology (SCB) can enhance conservation of biodiversity in North America by increasing its engagement in public policy. Toward this end, the North America Section of SCB is establishing partnerships with other professional organizations in order to speak more powerfully to decision makers and taking other actions—such as increasing interaction with chapters—geared to engage members more substantively in science-policy issues. Additionally, the section is developing a North American Biodiversity Blueprint, which spans the continental United States and Canada and is informed by natural and social science. This blueprint is intended to clarify the policy challenges for protecting continental biodiversity, to foster bilateral collaboration to resolve common problems, and to suggest rational alternative policies and practices that are more likely than current practices to sustain North America's natural heritage. Conservation scientists and practitioners can play a key role by drawing policy makers' attention to ultimate, as well as proximate, causes of biodiversity decline and to the ecological and economic consequences of not addressing these threats.     

No evidence of systematic pre-emptive loggings after notifying landowners of their lands’ conservation potential

Landowners can intentionally impair biodiversity values occurring on their land to pre-empt biodiversity protection. This often leads to significant negative effects on biodiversity. We studied whether landowners in Finland engaged in pre-emptive loggings after they were notified that their wooded mires are candidate sites for a mire protection program. After the notification, harvesting rates of the candidate wooded mires were significantly lower compared to harvesting rates of similar but non-candidate wooded mires. Annual and monthly harvesting rates indicated that notifying landowners of the conservation potential did not launch systematic pre-emptive logging behavior. Nevertheless, part of the candidate wooded mires were logged, so some landowners place more weight on other values than the biodiversity ones. Pre-emptive behavior has been observed in other studies suggesting that many country- or system-specific factors such as cultural background or level of compensation can affect landowners’ behavior.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1007/s13280-020-01354-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Removal of perfluorinated surfactants from wastewater by adsorption and ion exchange——Influence of material properties,sorption mechanism and modeling

Perfluorooctane sulfonate(PFOS) has attracted increasing concern in recent years due to its world-wide distribution, persistence, bioaccumulation and potential toxicity. The influence of sorbent properties on the adsorptive elimination of PFOS from wastewater by activated carbons, polymer adsorbents and anion exchange resins was investigated with regard to their isotherms and kinetics. The batch and column tests were combined with physicochemical characterization methods, e.g., N_2 physisorption, mercury porosimetry, infrared spectroscopy, differential scanning calorimetry, titrations, as well as modeling. Sorption kinetics was successfully modelled applying the linear driving force(LDF) approach for surface diffusion after introducing a load dependency of the mass transfer coefficient βs.The big difference in the initial mass transfer coefficient βs,0, when non-functionalized adsorbents and ion-exchange resins are compared, suggests that the presence of functional groups impedes the intraparticle mass transport. The more functional groups a resin possesses and the longer the alkyl moieties are the bigger is the decrease in sorption rate.But the selectivity for PFOS sorption is increasing when the character of the functional groups becomes more hydrophobic. Accordingly, ion exchange and hydrophobic interaction were found to be involved in the sorption processes on resins, while PFOS is only physisorptively bound to activated carbons and polymer adsorbents. In agreement with the different adsorption mechanisms, resins possess higher total sorption capacities than adsorbents. Hence, the latter ones are rendered more effective in PFOS elimination at concentrations in the low μg/L range, due to a less pronounced convex curvature of the sorption isotherm in this concentration range.     

城市大气中臭氧浓度控制的困难与挑战——以成都市为例

研究城市化、工业化和区域经济一体化进程的不断加快,对城市大气环境的影响是当前大气环境领域研究的热点问题。在此过程中,利用空气质量模型模拟系统研究大气环境污染问题成为大气环境研究中不可缺少的组成部分。在当前空气污染复杂的形势下,针对城市大气环境中臭氧的浓度尚未有效的控制措施。研究主要利用Models-3/CMAQ空气质量模式对成都市臭氧浓度数值通过不同的控制情景进行模拟,揭示城市大气中臭氧浓度控制的困难与挑战,并尝试性提出今后的研究方向,以期为控制城市大气中臭氧浓度提供建议。     

雷达海杂波统计特性建模研究

介绍了海杂波统计特性建模的幅度特性、多普勒谱及空间相关这三个方面的研究状况,对各种建模的思路和模型效果进行了对比总结。对于幅度均值已有多个较为成熟的模型,但适用范围不同,结果差异也很大。幅度分布建模重点解决拖尾问题,复合建模是趋势。除平均谱外,开始研究短时多普勒谱。空间相关性建模主要建立空间相关长度与雷达及海洋参数间的联系,但是研究还不够全面。总的来看,已由单纯经验建模发展为力图在机理研究指导下有一定物理意义的建模。尽管海杂波建模效果愈来愈接近实际,但建模依然存在诸多问题。     

生态敏感性评价在生态文明建设中的运用研究——以四川省蓬安县为例

以四川省蓬安县为例,基于GIS空间分析技术,结合蓬安当地实际,选取水源涵养、土壤保持能力和生物多样性进行生态敏感性评价,获得蓬安县区域敏感性现状图,并以此为基础构建生态安全格局,该格局注重区域的内在机理与周围的相对联系,保证各生态环境功能区成为具有各自特点、功能和生命活力而又彼此联系的有机体,为其生态文明建设过程中重点领域和重点工程设计规划提供基础支撑,阐明了生态敏感性评价在生态文明建设中的运用,为县级生态文明建设规划做出了贡献.     

Quantitative analysis of microbial biomass yield in aerobic bioreactor

We have studied the integrated model of reaction rate equations with thermal energy balance in aerobic bioreactor for food waste decomposition and showed that the integrated model has the capability both of monitoring microbial activity in real time and of analyzing biodegradation kinetics and thermal-hydrodynamic properties. On the other hand, concerning microbial metabolism, it was known that balancing catabolic reactions with anabolic reactions in terms of energy and electron flow provides stoichiometric metabolic reactions and enables the estimation of microbial biomass yield (stoichiometric reaction model). We have studied a method for estimating real-time microbial biomass yield in the bioreactor during food waste decomposition by combining the integrated model with the stoichiometric reaction model. As a result, it was found that the time course of microbial biomass yield in the bioreactor during decomposition can be evaluated using the operational data of the bioreactor (weight of input food waste and bed temperature) by the combined model. The combined model can be applied to manage a food waste decomposition not only for controlling system operation to keep microbial activity stable, but also for producing value–added products such as compost on optimum condition.     

基于提升能源化工基地清洁生产水平的节能减排潜力分析

文章以榆林能源化工基地代表性的支柱产业为例,开展依靠科技进步提升清洁生产水平的节能减排潜力分析。分析结果表明,至"十二五"末期榆林能源化工基地的支柱产业分别将清洁生产水平提高至一级或二级,可减少的二氧化硫排放量是3 451.8吨/年和1 094.3吨/年,氮氧化物排放量是5 333.5吨/年和1 962.5吨/年。