四川石油天然气工业环境统计体系现状分析及改进对策

针对四川石油天然气工业环境统计中存在的非稳定污染源监测数据的统计价值不高，统计调查方法单一，个别统计指标计算未使用国家统一标准等现状，从环境监测站改组入手，改革统计调查方法，建立以必要的周期性普查为基础，以经常性的抽样调查为主体，同时辅之以全面统计报表，重点调查和科学推算综合运用的统计调查方法体系。     

HEAVY RAINFALL DISTRIBUTIONS BY SEASON IN LOUISIANA: SYNOPTIC INTERPRETATIONS AND QUANTILE ESTIMATES1

ABSTRACT: In most studies, quantile estimates of extreme 24-hour rainfall are given in annual probabilities. The probability of experiencing an excessive storm event, however, differs throughout the year. As a result, this paper explored the differences between heavy rainfall distributions by season in Louisiana. It was concluded by using the Kruskal-Wallis and Mann-Whitney tests that the distribution of heavy rainfall events differs significantly between particular seasons at the sites near the Gulf Coast. Furthermore, seasonal frequency curves varied dramatically at the four sites examined. Mixed distributions within these data were not found to be problematic, but the mechanisms that produced the events were found to change seasonally. Extreme heavy rainfall events in winter and spring were primarily generated by frontal weather systems, while summer and fall events had high proportions of events produced by tropical disturbances and airmass (free-convective) conditions.     

多层商住楼抗震设防投资效益评价

针对不同结构多层商住楼的具体特征，运用结构易损性分析方法对各类房屋未来的震害情况进行了分析，给出了震害损失与投资效果的综合评价方法，为进行这类房屋的结构选型、设计及工程投资的优化提供一定的理论依据。     

采用磁流变阻尼器的地震结构模糊控制

以磁流变阻尼器所在层的层间位移和层速度响应为输入变量，以控制电流为输出变量，根据抗震规范和实际经验提出了模糊控制器的合理的设计方法。对一个3层钢筋混凝土结构进行了实例分析，结果表明，模糊控制无论是对于位移响应还是加速度响应都有较好的控制效果。     

交通安全对策的关联树法分析

分析了交通安全的影响因素,结合系统工程理论,建立了道路交通安全对策关联树,并计算了指标的重要度,为提出合理的交通安全对策提供了理论依据.     

凝析油储罐运行中的安全问题及改进

据国际国内关于油品储罐的事故统计和分析，拱顶储油罐的事故率最高，可见该类型储罐风险大，由于影响储罐安全运行的因素很多，任何一个环节出问题，都可能引发重大事故。本文就凝析油罐运行6年来，从储罐腐蚀、浮盘质量及安全环保方面所发现和整改的实际情况，在设计和施工中遗留的问题进行深入分析，提出改进措施，为类似的储罐设计施工及管理提供参考。     

隔震连续梁桥结构以位移为基础的抗震设计方法

笔者对隔震连续梁桥结构提出了一种以位移为基础的抗震设计方法 ,建立了设计位移反应谱 ,给出了设计步骤 ,该方法可对对称与非对称隔震连续梁桥结构采用相同的设计步骤进行基于位移的抗震设计 ,最后对设计算例用振型分析和非线性时程分析验证了设计结果的合理性     

TEMPORAL CHANGES IN THE YADKIN RIVER FLOW VERSUS SUSPENDED SEDIMENT CONCENTRATION RELATIONSHIP1

ABSTRACT: Dynamic linear models (DLM) and seasonal trend decomposition (STL) using local regression, or LOESS, were used to analyze the 50‐year time series of suspended sediment concentrations for the Yadkin River, measured at the U.S. Geological Survey station at Yadkin College, North Carolina. A DLM with constant trend, seasonality, and a log₁₀ streamflow regressor provided the best model to predict monthly mean log₁₀ suspended sediment concentrations, based on the forecast log likelihood. Using DLM, there was evidence (odds approximately 69:1) that the log₁₀ streamflow versus log₁₀ suspended sediment concentration relationship has changed, with an approximate 20 percent increase in the log₁₀ streamflow coefficient over the period 1981 to 1996. However, sediment concentrations in the Yadkin River have decreased during the decade of the 1990s, which has been accompanied by a concomitant increase in streamflow variability. Although STL has been shown to be a versatile trend analysis technique, DLM is shown to be more suitable for discovery and inference of structural changes (trends) in the model coefficient describing the relationship between flow and sediment concentration.     

我国道路交通安全发展情景分析

以日本和美国为例 ,分析了发达国家道路交通事故高发期的发展历程 ,得出了道路交通事故的上升与国家经济发展和机动化增长有着直接关系的结论。笔者通过分析和预测我国经济和道路交通的发展情景发现 ,今后我国道路交通发展特征和日本道路交通高发期的情况十分类似。如果现有交通管理体制和技术措施没有大的变化 ,我国道路交通事故死亡人数到 2 0 2 0年可能会超过 2 3万人。为此 ,国家应尽快改善道路交通管理方面所存在体制上、行政上和技术上的不足 ,防止出现笔者所预测的道路交通事故极其严重的局面。     

森工企业伐木作业事故成因分析与预防措施

以森工企业伐木作业三起事故为案例,对造成事故的原因进行了分析,根据事故成因提出了相对应的事故预防措施.