Towards a better management of complex emergencies through crisis management meta‐modelling

Managing complex emergency situations is a challenging task, mainly due to the heterogeneity of the partners involved and the critical nature of such events. Whatever approach is adopted to support this objective, one unavoidable issue is knowledge management. In the context of our research project, gathering, formalising and exploiting all the knowledge and information about a given crisis situation is a critical requirement. This paper presents some research results concerning this specific topic: from a theoretical point of view, the generic dimensions of crisis characterisation are defined, while from a technical point of view, we describe a software solution able to collect that knowledge (based on meta‐models and ontologies). This is used to confront the characteristics of the situation (context) with characteristics of the resources (relief system) in order to design a suitable response. Finally, an illustrative example concerning a crash between a tanker truck and a train is described.     

How prepared is prepared enough?

Decisions about disaster preparedness are rarely informed by cost‐benefit analyses. This paper presents an economic model to address the thorny question, ‘how prepared is prepared enough?’ Difficulties related to the use of cost‐benefit analysis in the field of disaster management concern the tension between the large number of high‐probability events that can be handled by a single emergency response unit and the small number of low‐probability events that must be handled by a large number of them. A further special feature of disaster management concerns the opportunity for cooperation between different emergency response units. To account for these issues, we introduce a portfolio approach. Our analysis shows that it would be useful to define disaster preparedness not in terms of capacities, but in terms of the frequency with which response capacity is expected to fall short.     

河北省应对水危机加快发展海水淡化的探讨

21世纪水危机严重威胁河北省经济社会发展。海水淡化是解决水危机问题的重要措施,具有良好的综合效益和发展前景。河北省海水淡化条件较好,基础比较雄厚,为此建议尽快编制河北省海水淡化规划,加快建设海水淡化工程,积极发展海水淡化装备制造业,并开展沿海热电厂非采暖季节利用气热淡化海水的实验研究。     

The impact of workplace exclusion on the humanitarian response to the refugee crisis in Lebanon

A contemporary issue of major concern is the millions of people fleeing homelands owing to political and socioeconomic challenges and seeking assistance elsewhere throughout the world. An effective response to this crisis includes support models that meet the various needs of refugee populations. In the complex system of humanitarian action, aid workers, among a multiplicity of actors, are the most important assets. This study utilised an inclusion–exclusion theoretical lens to examine the impact of their workplace experiences on activities in the context of the refugee crisis in Lebanon. In-depth interviews were held with 36 humanitarian practitioners, representing five international organisations that are involved in refugee aid programmes in the country. The study led to a new understanding of the link between inclusion and exclusion and the effectiveness of the humanitarian response to emergencies. In addition, it yielded new insights into apprehension about the national–international divide and its consequences for humanitarian assistance.     

Lomborg and the Litany of Biodiversity Crisis: What the Peer-Reviewed Literature Says

Abstract:  Lomborg's (2001) book has generated passionate discussion about the state of the global environment. We performed a bibliometric evaluation of the peer-reviewed primary scientific literature to determine whether there is any consistent evidence that "things are getting better." The global literature primarily reported negative impacts on biodiversity caused by human actions, although Europe appeared to be doing better than the rest of the world. These results cannot be explained by publication bias alone because rejection rates of papers indicating improvements in the environment would have to be unrealistically high to change our results. There were nonrandom distributions of papers showing environmental recovery in developed countries and for ecosystems not strongly subjected to conservation-development conflicts. Although the literature did not paint a picture of universal gloom, the empirical evidence clearly showed growing environmental crises.     

目的地旅游危机后恢复管理系统模型构建研究

从旅游危机的影响路径和旅游危机影响机理可知,旅游危机后恢复管理模型应建立在旅游者风险感知基础之上。旅游危机后恢复过程主要有停滞期、起步期、发展期、归位期和分异期等5个阶段,按照递进关系,旅游危机后恢复管理系统模型主要由贯穿整个管理系统的信息沟通管理系统、外在政策环境支持系统、旅游恢复管理措施系统等三部分构成。     

基于混沌理论的企业危机管理研究

企业的有效运行和发展历程中都不可避免会面临不同程度的危机,揭示其危机成因,回避危机、化解风险十分重要。企业危机是一个复杂的非线性的能量耗散系统,具有类似混沌的本质特征。笔者运用混沌理论,从“消极、失误、弊病”角度研究企业危机现象,着重探讨企业危机的混沌特征及其发生动因,并提出危机的混沌理论管理原则。针对企业实际,给出控制危机混沌发生,改变危机系统的动态行为,以化解或转化危机的5种对策及方法,实现企业可持续发展。     

基于警源-压力-预警能力的城市公共危机预警研究

为提高城市公共危机系统预警能力,基于耶克斯-多德森(Yerkes-Dodson)定律构建该系统警源-压力-预警能力的概念模型,分析警源、压力、预警能力三者间的关系,进而提出警源-压力-预警能力的系统动力学(SD)模型,并利用Vensim PLE仿真软件进行案例模拟分析,最后结合仿真结果从系统内外2个维度探讨提高城市公共危机系统预警能力的应对策略。结果表明:警源和压力是城市公共危机系统预警能力的2个主要影响因素。建立健全相关法律体系和改善危机系统"周边环境",减小外部警源到达率;完善预警机制和加强防范管理,提高系统内部鲁棒性,能够提高城市公共危机系统预警能力。     

欧债危机集中核算对农村金融影响

欧债危机下会计集中核算对金融市场发展会产生一定的影响,当前的会计核算是以统一核算为基本手段,对资金进行集中控制。农村金融发展过程中受到会计集中核算制度的影响越来越大,通过加强财政资金支持,实现会计集中核算的整体目标。欧债危机下农村金融市场需要提升管理水平,才能更好的维持农村金融稳定,保证农村金融能够更好的服务"三农",从根本上提升农村金融的核心竞争力。     

欧债危机下煤炭企业市场营销渠道分析

随着欧债危机的蔓延,我国煤炭企业市场效益也受到一定程度的影响。当前企业需要不断改变营销模式,拓展营销渠道,完善市场营销机制,才能提升企业的营销水平,为可持续发展奠定坚实的基础。煤炭企业在发展过程中受到国内市场和国际市场的双重影响,需要采取科学的营销策略,降低企业的营销成本,提升企业的市场经营水平,才能够帮助企业摆脱危机,实现经济效益增长。