A new approach to quantifying and comparing vulnerability to drought

In this study we develop an “inference modeling” approach to compare and analyze how different disciplines (economics, political science, and behavioral science/environmental psychology) estimate vulnerability to drought. It is thought that a better understanding of these differences can lead to a synthesis of insights from the different disciplines and eventually to more comprehensive assessments of vulnerability. The new methodology consists of (1) developing inference models whose variables and assertions incorporate qualitative knowledge about vulnerability, (2) converting qualitative model variables into quantitative indicators by using fuzzy set theory, (3) collecting data on the values of the indicators from case study regions, (4) inputting the regional data to the models and computing quantitative values for susceptibility. The methodology was applied to three case study regions (in India, Portugal and Russia) having a range of socio-economic and water stress conditions. In some cases the estimates of susceptibility were surprisingly similar, in others not, depending on the factors included in the disciplinary models and their relative weights. A new approach was also taken to testing vulnerability parameters by comparing estimated water stress against a data set of drought occurrences based on media analysis. The new methodologies developed in this paper provide a consistent basis for comparing differences between disciplinary perspectives, and for identifying the importance of the differences.

水资源危机与节水农业

论述了当今世界水资源危机的现状，引起水资源危机的主要原因；认为发展节水农业是缓解水资源危机的重要举措，并概述了节水农业的技术现状和节水农业今后的发展趋势．     

The functions of social service workers at a time of war against a civilian population

This article identifies the nature of functions that social service workers employed by municipal organisations have to perform during a community disaster and subsequent reorganisation at a time of war. The article also explores to what extent the functions of workers change as a result of the transition from a peacetime routine to a war situation. Using focus groups the study assesses the knowledge of social service workers and ordinary citizens who had direct experience of the second Lebanese war in Israel (2006). Eight major functions needed at a time of disaster are distinguished among various employees. The article discusses the significance of these functions, and the need to make changes in the network of functions at a time of disaster.     

南水北调中线水源地汉江上游流域主要生态环境问题及对策

汉江上游是南水北调中线水源地，流域生态环境建设是保障水源地水质安全的关键。针对上游流域水环境污染、土地利用以及水土流失等重大生态环境问题，结合流域数字高程模型及水质调查对其进行了系统分析。结果表明：（1）丹江流域、库区流域及汉中盆地水质较差，CODMn和氨氮成为水源区主要污染物；（2）各子流域区植被覆盖占各自面积的712%~957%，表明流域植被覆盖较好，但沿河岸100 m范围内农业用地占292%~434%，且多为坡耕地；（3）流域水土流失严重，2000年左右流域侵蚀图显示汉江源头、秦岭南及大巴山北均出现了大片年均侵蚀模数>2 200 t/km2的区域，且有日益增强的趋势。提出加大水环境污染整治力度、加强农业用肥管理及河岸带建设、水土保持建设以及加强流域水环境及水土保持监测和科研工作等对策。     

Shrinking Tropical Forests, Human Agents of Change, and Conservation Policy

Abstract:  Human agents of landscape transformation in the tropics affect forests differently as the forests decline in size. Five agents of change—road builders, corporate concession holders, community forest managers, park advocates, and urban consumers—have different effects on large forests in remote tropical regions than they do on remnant forests in settled agricultural regions. Because forests vary so much in size across tropical regions, these differences in the effects of agents on forests have important implications for regional conservation efforts. To make these implications explicit, I compared the effects of the five agents in regions with large forests with their effects in regions with small forests. The comparisons indicated that, as forests declined in size, new roads no longer destroyed forests, corporate loggers left the forests, community forest managers became more effective, parks became less feasible as a means of conservation, and urban consumers initiated tree planting. My results suggest that awareness about the changing effects of humans on landscapes with shrinking forests can serve as a useful tool in formulating regionally appropriate policies for conserving tropical forests.     

云南边境生态危机胁迫社会的机制及其调控

云南边境作为国家实施桥头堡战略的前沿阵地,一方面,区域人口、物资的巨量＂集结-流通＂已是事实;另一方面,区域集多边主权国界线、少数民族多、社会生产落后、复杂脆弱的生态环境等突出特征于一体.新一轮的大发展对区域的生态环境将带来前所未有的冲击力,生态负荷突增导致生态危机发生概率增加,生态危机转而胁迫社会导致社会危机风险上升。基于云南边境社会特征、生态危机,从生态危机胁迫社会的一般性机制入手探寻该区域生态危机胁迫社会的机制及其调控对策,通过深入分析研究,总结得出了该区域生态危机胁迫社会的三种主要机制及四种针对性调控对策。     

城市危机管理系统鲁棒性评价研究——以上海市危机管理系统为例

为提高城市危机管理系统的鲁棒性,探究影响系统鲁棒性的主要因素,建立城市危机管理系统的鲁棒性评价体系。采用因子分析中的主成分分析法,分析评价上海市2004—2009年危机管理系统鲁棒性评价指标的数据,并根据数据分析结果找出影响城市危机管理系统鲁棒性的主成分和因子。结果表明,上海危机管理系统的鲁棒性呈现日趋增强的趋势,企业亏损程度、犯罪率、离婚率、对外界公共卫生事件的防御程度、自然灾害因素对上海危机管理系统的影响较大。提高企业盈利能力、降低犯罪率和离婚率、提高公共卫生防御能力、完善自然灾害预防措施有助于增强城市危机管理系统的鲁棒性。     

城市重大危机事件演化的动力学模型研究

建立了城市重大危机事件的＂事件链＂,并分析了＂事件链＂中各状态的相互关系。基于SEIS传染病模型的思想,提出了一类城市重大危机事件的动力学模型。分别在不考虑外部因素对事件链的影响和考虑外部因素对事件链的影响的情况下,对事件从正常状态到危机状态沿时间的发展趋势和规律进行了分析,并对解进行Lyapunov稳定性分析以及计算机模拟仿真。研究表明：系统自身的修复能力和外部因素对系统的影响是控制危机事件的重要因素。     

BP墨西哥湾漏油事件应急处置与危机管理的启示

发生在2010年4月份的越洋钻探公司＂深水地平线＂钻井平台井喷爆炸着火事故,造成人员伤亡和引发墨西哥湾污染事件,被美国定为国家级灾难,损失之大、污染之重、影响范围之广,已经引起了全球的高度反思。如何从BP公司这样的跨国公司处置漏油事件过程中学习应急管理,从社会责任的展示学到危机应对,应当成为当今社会安全文化建设的重点问题。本文通过这一典型案例分析,结合历史发展的必然和应急工作的现实,提出了对＂应急与危机＂新的认识,以求得我们对安全文化建设新的思考。     

我国北方城市暴雨灾害演化过程及风险分析

提出一种基于灾害演化网络的风险分析方法,针对城市暴雨灾害的演化过程进行了风险分析。利用复杂网络理论构建北方城市暴雨灾害演化网络模型,将危机事件分为三个等级,并探讨了事件级别和出入度的关系;分析城市暴雨灾害链演化特点和暴雨危机事件后果蔓延规律,得到关键危机事件和演化链。结果表明,交通堵塞是我国北方城市暴雨灾害系统中关键危机事件;暴雨灾害演化系统存在短链、长直链和循环链三种结构,其中循环链中的危机事件互为因果,可自行激化,是灾害演化网络控制的关键结构。