环境健康价值评估中的年龄效应研究

在环境健康价值评估研究中,统计寿命价值和年龄之间的关系是理论和实证研究焦点之一,也是重要的学术问题。长久以来,环境政策效益评估中是否应该赋予老年人较低的统计寿命价值一直存在广泛争议,且尚未得到一致性结论。通过设计选择实验,对北京市空气质量改善的健康效益进行了抽样调查,并采用MNL模型对北京市约500个居民的调查数据进行回归分析,估算了不同年龄人群对健康风险减少的支付意愿,针对中国人群中统计寿命价值和年龄之间的关系进行实证探讨。结果表明:一方面,在总体样本中设置年龄虚拟变量,回归结果表明年龄变量系数的符号均显著为负,即年龄因素对减少空气污染带来的死亡风险降低的支付意愿具有显著的影响,年龄越大支付意愿相对越小;另一方面,不同年龄人群分组样本结果显示,统计寿命价值与年龄之间呈现"倒U型"关系,统计寿命价值在中国存在"老年折扣"现象。研究结果可为我国环境政策的健康效益分析中如何考虑年龄的影响提供重要依据。     

基于MODIS的渍害田和正常农田遥感特性对比研究

渍害田在我国南方地区分布广泛,严重影响农业生产。以四湖流域洪湖地区为实验区,基于渍害田的物理及生态特性来探讨渍害田遥感识别特性。利用2002～2011年MODIS产品,辅以土壤图、土地覆被数据,对比分析了正常农田及渍害田在反照率、增强型植被指数（EVI）、地表夜温、地表温差和表观热惯量的时相差异;并结合相关研究成果加以解释和验证。结果表明：一年中大部分时段,正常农田的反照率、EVI、地表温差都大于渍害田,而地表夜温、表观热惯量都低于渍害田;各指标的多年平均值也具有类似差别;渍害田的EVI在6、7月份比正常农田高, 可能是由于渍害田在雨、热、肥条件同时良好时比正常农田生长的更快。研究结果可为进一步准确识别渍害田空间分布及其动态变化     

渗滤液污染包气带中铁的形态变化

从渗滤液场龄和包气带岩性两方面出发,研究了新、老渗滤液对亚粘土和细砂包气带环境中Fe的含量及存在形态的影响。结果表明：新、老渗滤液分别能使细砂包气带介质中除残渣态以外Fe的含量增加16.68%或降低13.82%。亚粘土比细砂作为包气带介质更能缓冲渗滤液对介质中Fe的影响程度,其受影响范围在包气带0～20 cm深度处。当亚粘土为介质的包气带被新渗滤液污染后,其表层介质中碳酸盐结合态Fe的含量会增加15倍之多,为缓冲渗滤液Fe的污染做出了巨大贡献,但这部分Fe的存在也是潜在的二次污染源,在环境pH急剧变化的情况下,它可能会引起地下水高铁污染。     

Spatial identification by satellite imagery of the crop–fallow rotation cycle in northern Laos

In the mountainous regions of northern Laos, shifting cultivation, or slash-and-burn agriculture, is widely practiced. However, the crop–fallow rotation cycle is becoming shorter owing to forest conservation policies and population pressure, causing loss of productivity that deleteriously affects farmers’ livelihoods in the region. To investigate regional land use conditions, we have developed a method of identifying the crop–fallow rotation cycle from Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) and Enhanced Thematic Mapper+ (ETM+) data. We assessed the impact of the identified cycle on plant production measured by Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). The study site was an area in Luang Prabang Province. Using eight TM and ETM+ images acquired annually from 1995 to 2003, except for 1998, when cloud-free data were not collected, we classified land use in each year as crop or fallow by the presence of vegetation in the late dry season. Conformity with fallow age determined by field investigation was 69.1%. The cultivation frequency from 1995 to 2002 showed that 77,000 ha (17.3% of the study site) had not been used for cropping during the period, but 41,000 ha (9.2%) had been used every year. Of the study site, 129,000 ha (29.1%) was cultivated one or two times, 83,000 ha (18.7%) was three or four times, and 54,000 ha (12.2%) was five or six times. The NDVI of crops in November did not provide sufficient evidence to prove the assumption that a longer fallow period would result in better crop yields. Instead, the regeneration of fallow vegetation was evidenced by the higher NDVI values after longer fallow. More than 8 years would be needed to reach the same NDVI as forest. From the produced maps indicating fallow age and cultivation frequency, we found that areas with high potential for regeneration decreased as cultivation frequency increased. Areas near rivers were intensively used, and fallow length was accordingly short. Low-potential areas were found in the western basin of the Mekong River. This spatial information can be used to detect areas where biomass productivity is at high risk of deteriorating. Readers should send their comments on this paper to: BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue.     

秦皇岛山羊寨动物群及其生存环境的研究

1981年,笔者在泰皇岛市抚宁县山羊寨村小南山发现大量动物化石,经鉴定共有32种动物,其中绝灭种7个,时代为新生代第四纪中更新世,绝对年龄为（18±2）万年至（20±2）万年,相当于北京周口店动物群后期。研究发现：其生活在低山丘陵及其河谷;当时的气候是温和湿润的温带气候,但已向凉干转化;植被为温带落叶阔叶林。     

Performance of IUCN proxies for generation length

One of the criteria used by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) to assess threat status is the rate of decline in abundance over 3 generations or 10 years, whichever is longer. The traditional method for calculating generation length (T) uses age‐specific survival and fecundity, but these data are rarely available. Consequently, proxies that require less information are often used, which introduces potential biases. The IUCN recommends 2 proxies based on adult mortality rate, = α + 1/d, and reproductive life span, = α + z^*RL, where α is age at first reproduction, d is adult mortality rate, RL is reproductive life span, and z is a coefficient derived from data for comparable species. We used published life tables for 78 animal and plant populations to evaluate precision and bias of these proxies by comparing and with true generation length. Mean error rates in estimating T were 31% for and 20% for , but error rates for were 16% when we subtracted 1 year ( ), as suggested by theory; also provided largely unbiased estimates regardless of the true generation length. Performance of depends on compilation of detailed data for comparable species, but our results suggest taxonomy is not a reliable indicator of comparability. All 3 proxies depend heavily on a reliable estimate of age at first reproduction, as we illustrated with 2 test species. The relatively large mean errors for all proxies emphasized the importance of collecting the detailed life‐history information necessary to calculate true generation length. Unfortunately, publication of such data is less common than it was decades ago. We identified generic patterns of age‐specific change in vital rates that can be used to predict expected patterns of bias from applying .     

汶川大地震灾后青少年心理援助经验启示

为探索和创新汶川大地震以及其他灾情灾后青少年心理援助提供科学决策依据,通过对四川灾区民众的调查分析及其对收集的信息资料研究,着重揭示了汶川大地震灾后青少年心理援助的经验：“三个加强”——加强方式、方法、机制“三位一体”对青少年心理援助,“三个强化”——社会、学校、家庭“三位一体”对青少年心理援助的启示。     

Comparison of 85Kr and 3H Apparent Ground‐Water Ages for Source Water Vulnerability in the Collyer River Catchment,Maine1

Abstract: Apparent ground‐water ages as determined by the noble gas isotope ⁸⁵Kr and the water isotope ³H are compared. Refined gas extraction methodology at the wellhead permits efficient collection of Kr for ⁸⁵Kr isotope enrichment. ⁸⁵Kr isochrones elucidate areas of much younger ground‐water ages than ³H. Declining ³H activities in the catchment prevent its correlation with the youngest measured ⁸⁵Kr ages. Source water for most drinking water supplies in the Collyer River catchment is recharged within 40 years BP (2004). Mean‐age (τ) transport modeling suggests uncertainty of ground‐water ages is greatest in the central basin area.     

我国消防标准体系分析

为明确我国消防标准体系发展的方向和重点,分别从消防标准的数量、标龄、类型、属性和采标情况等5个方面对我国消防标准体系进行分析,并与国际标准化组织、欧盟标准化委员会和美国的消防标准体系进行了比较。研究结果表明:我国消防标准体系整体适用性在不断增强;需制定周期性标准复审计划;消防基础试验类和管理类标准应成为下一步消防标准制修订的重点;消防强制性标准所占比例有待进一步下调;需建立国际标准动态跟踪机制,同时应注重将我国先进的消防标准转化为国际标准。