Phast validation of discharge and atmospheric dispersion for pressurised carbon dioxide releases

The consequence modelling package Phast examines the progress of a potential incident from the initial release to the far-field dispersion including the modelling of rainout and subsequent vaporisation. The original Phast discharge and dispersion models allow the released substance to occur only in the vapour and liquid phases. The latest versions of Phast include extended models which also allow for the occurrence of fluid to solid transition for carbon dioxide (CO₂) releases.As part of two projects funded by BP and Shell (made publicly available via CO2PIPETRANS JIP), experimental work on CO₂ releases was carried out at the Spadeadam site (UK) by GL Noble Denton. These experiments included both high-pressure steady-state and time-varying cold releases (liquid storage) and high-pressure time-varying supercritical hot releases (vapour storage). The CO₂ was stored in a vessel with attached pipework. At the end of the pipework a nozzle was attached, where the nozzle diameter was varied.This paper discusses the validation of Phast against the above experiments. The flow rate was predicted accurately by the Phast discharge models (within 10%; considered within the accuracy at which the BP experimental data were measured), and the concentrations were found to be predicted accurately (well within a factor of two) by the Phast dispersion model (UDM). This validation was carried out with no fitting whatsoever of the Phast extended discharge and dispersion models.     

Validation of discharge and atmospheric dispersion for unpressurised and pressurised carbon dioxide releases

This paper discusses the validation of discharge and subsequent atmospheric dispersion for both unpressurised and pressurised carbon dioxide releases using the consequence modelling package Phast.The paper first summarises the validation of the Phast dispersion model (UDM) for unpressurised releases. This includes heavy gas dispersion from either a ground-level line source (McQuaid wind-tunnel experiments) or an area source (Kit-Fox field experiments). For the McQuaid experiments minor modifications of the UDM were made to support line sources. For the Kit Fox experiments steady-state and 20-s finite-duration releases were simulated for both neutral and stable conditions. Most accurate predictions of the concentrations for finite duration releases were obtained using the UDM Finite Duration Correction method.Using experiments funded by BP and Shell and made available via DNV's CO2PIPETRANS JIP, the paper secondly summarises the validation of the Phast discharge and dispersion models for pressurised CO₂ releases. This modelling accounted for the possible presence of the solid CO₂ phase following expansion to atmospheric pressure. These experiments included both high-pressure steady-state and time-varying cold releases (liquid storage) and high-pressure time-varying supercritical hot releases. Both the flow rate and the concentrations were found to be predicted accurately.The above validation was carried out with no fitting whatsoever of the Phast extended discharge and dispersion models.     

渤海海峡跨海通道建设环境影响研究

渤海海峡跨海通道建设是一项高技术、高投入的特大战略性工程，工程建设具有重大的经济、军事和政治意义，但是也必将对环境产生重大影响。本文在对各界专家一致推荐的“伏贴式隧道和隧道桥”方案进行简要分析的基础上．论述了对工程建设进行环境影响研究的必要性，提出了环境影响评价工作程序与工程决策生命周期的耦合过程，以便从工程源头控制环境影响的产生；初步探讨了工程施工期和运营期的环境影响识别内容，结果表明：采用“伏贴式隧道和隧道桥”方案，相对于其它方案对资源、生态环境的干扰和影响是最小的；并提出了预防和减缓不良环境影响的对策措施，为工程的环保施工与运营提供科学依据。     

西太湖秋季蓝藻水华过后细胞裂解对溶解性有机碳影响

从2009年7月~2010年3月每月采集西太湖表层水样,分析叶绿素含量﹑蓝藻细胞裂解速率﹑磷酸盐浓度的变化,并通过切向流超滤系统分离得到的高分子量(1kDa~0.5μm)溶解性有机物的碳氮比值和高分子量溶解性有机碳浓度的变化.结果表明,西太湖蓝藻细胞裂解速率在11月达到最大值(0.43d-1),而磷酸盐和高分子量溶解性有机碳浓度分别在12月与9月达到最大值.细胞裂解速率与磷酸盐﹑高分子量溶解性有机碳浓度之间没有相关性,说明水华过后影响磷酸盐浓度﹑高分子量溶解性有机碳的因素很多,蓝藻细胞裂解只是其中重要因素之一.藻类水华的出现可能导致水体中其它磷形态(如有机磷)与磷酸盐之间的迁移转化,而大型浅水湖泊扰动导致的沉积物再悬浮和水华过后频繁的细菌活动都可能是影响高分子量溶解性有机碳的因素.秋季水华过后蓝藻细胞裂解释放的有机碳进入微食物网循环,引起细菌活动频繁,而溶解性有机物中含碳化合物比含氮化合物容易降解,所以碳氮比值逐渐减少.此外细菌通过硝酸盐合成溶解性有机氮也可能是碳氮比值减少的一个重要原因.     

Estimating the uncertainty of pesticide residue analysis from mango using multi-residue analysis and validation of method

Validation of method was performed for various pesticides on mango matrix involving the processing of sample at ambient and cryogenic conditions. The linearity, limits of detection, repeatability, matrix effect, and recovery were studied as the aspects of method validation. The effect of matrix on recovery was found to be medium (20–50%) and strong (>50%). After correction by matrix-matched calibration curves, the recovery was calculated to be in the range of 80–107% and 80–105% at ambient and cryogenic processing, respectively. The precision estimated for the recovery of pesticides obtained from both solvent- and matrix-matched calibration curves and at both the processing conditions was determined to be >20% except for chlorpyrifos and atrazine. The uncertainty established for the methodology was >20%, which substantiates the efficiency and reliability of methodology used for pesticide residue analysis in mango in this study.     

QSAR模型内部和外部验证方法综述

验证定量-结构活性相关(QSAR)模型,是保证模型对未知样本的生物活性具有可靠预测能力的重要前提.然而,目前部分QSAR论文没有对模型进行有效验证.因此,本文详细综述QSAR模型的内部验证方法和外部验证方法.内部验证方法包括留一法(leave-one-out,LOO)交叉验证,留多法(leave-many-out,LMO)或留N法(leave-N-out,LNO)交叉验证,y随机化验证和自举法.评价模型外部预测能力的统计量包括Q2F1、Q2F2、Q2F3、一致性相关系数(concordance correlation coefficient,CCC)、r珋2m和Golbraikh-Tropsha方法.此外,从文献中总结出可接受QSAR模型对应的统计量参考数值,从而为QSAR建模者提供指导与帮助.     

Bayesian Networks and Adaptive Management of Wildlife Habitat

Abstract: Adaptive management is an iterative process of gathering new knowledge regarding a system's behavior and monitoring the ecological consequences of management actions to improve management decisions. Although the concept originated in the 1970s, it is rarely actively incorporated into ecological restoration. Bayesian networks (BNs) are emerging as efficient ecological decision‐support tools well suited to adaptive management, but examples of their application in this capacity are few. We developed a BN within an adaptive‐management framework that focuses on managing the effects of feral grazing and prescribed burning regimes on avian diversity within woodlands of subtropical eastern Australia. We constructed the BN with baseline data to predict bird abundance as a function of habitat structure, grazing pressure, and prescribed burning. Results of sensitivity analyses suggested that grazing pressure increased the abundance of aggressive honeyeaters, which in turn had a strong negative effect on small passerines. Management interventions to reduce pressure of feral grazing and prescribed burning were then conducted, after which we collected a second set of field data to test the response of small passerines to these measures. We used these data, which incorporated ecological changes that may have resulted from the management interventions, to validate and update the BN. The network predictions of small passerine abundance under the new habitat and management conditions were very accurate. The updated BN concluded the first iteration of adaptive management and will be used in planning the next round of management interventions. The unique belief‐updating feature of BNs provides land managers with the flexibility to predict outcomes and evaluate the effectiveness of management interventions.     

When does centrality matter? Scientific productivity and the moderating role of research specialization and cross‐community ties

The present study addresses the ongoing debate concerning academic scientific productivity. Specifically, given the increasing number of collaborations in academia and the crucial role networks play in knowledge creation, we investigate the extent to which building social capital within the academic community represents a valuable resource for a scientist's knowledge‐creation process. We measure the social capital in terms of structural position within the academic collaborative network. Furthermore, we analyse the extent to which an academic scientist's research specialization and ties that cross‐community boundaries act as moderators of the aforementioned relationship. Empirical results derived from an analysis of an Italian academic community from 2001 to 2008 suggest academic scientists that build social capital by occupying central positions in the community outperform their more isolated colleagues. However, scientific productivity declines beyond a certain threshold value of centrality, hence revealing the existence of an inverted U‐shaped relationship. This relationship is negatively moderated by the extent to which an academic focuses research activities in few scientific knowledge domains, whereas it is positively moderated by the number of cross‐community ties established. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

室内空气污染预测方法的实证研究

在大型(30m3)、小型(1m3)环境箱实验获得数据的基础上构建释放模型,并将模拟结果和现场监测得到的浓度水平进行对比,对开发的室内空气污染预测方法进行了实证研究.以一新装修房间为例,分别利用大型和小型环境箱实验,研究了复杂整装材料和简单层状材料的释放规律,建立了相应材料的污染物释放模型;依据单元内物质守恒理论和污染物充分混合的假设将释放模型组合,建立了室内空气污染预测方法,并预测了该房间甲醛和TVOC(total volatile organic compounds)浓度的变化过程.在考虑了0.03ACH(air change per hour)的换气率之后,模型预测与现场监测的污染物浓度变化趋势基本吻合,甲醛和TVOC污染预测误差(正则化标准差)分别为2.8%和1.6%.模型分析表明,各污染源对于甲醛污染的贡献,家具＞涂料＞地板;对于TVOC污染的贡献,涂料＞地板＞家具.结论表明,该预测方法可以真实反映现场污染物浓度变化趋势,可以用来分析各污染源对于整体污染的贡献、指导装修材料的选择和作为室内污染评估和控制的有效工具.     

清远市乐排河氰化物跨境污染应急处理案例分析

近年来突发性跨境污染事件时有发生,广州市环保局曾先后成功处理北江镉污染、清远市乐排河氰化物污染等事件。本案例通过回放对清远市乐排河氰化物污染事件的应急处理过程,总结出环保部门应对突发性跨境污染事件三方面的思考：1.加强对跨境河流的监控是及时掌握突发性污染的必要手段;2.借鉴同类型污染事件的处理方法是有效处理事件的捷径;3.环保部门严格按职责处理是解决跨境污染事件的关键。