典型区土壤重金属空间插值方法与污染评价

选择最优的空间插值方法对土壤重金属空间分布特征的反映和污染评价具有重要的意义.以湖北省恩施市典型区表层土壤重金属As和Cd为例,选取常用的反距离权重法(IDW)、径向基函数法(RBF)、局部多项式法(LPI)和普通克里格法(OK)进行空间插值,对比分析了不同插值方法的插值精度及结果差异.同时采用地累积指数和指示克里格法(IK)评价了土壤重金属污染状况.结果表明,不同插值方法对于同一种元素的预测误差相差较小,但对土壤重金属含量的空间分布特征存在明显差异,其中LPI法表现出明显的平滑效应,OK法次之,而IDW法和RBF法极大地保留了元素含量的极值信息,插值结果较详尽.为准确了解局部高背景区土壤重金属的空间分布状况,应优选IDW法或RBF法进行插值.以湖北省深层土壤重金属含量算术均值作为背景值,地累积指数污染评价结果显示:As和Cd的超标样点分别占5.5%和99.0%,研究区Cd污染程度较高.IK法污染评价显示:Cd中度-强污染以上的高概率污染区域主要位于研究区的中部,应重视土壤Cd污染分布,并对其有效治理与修复.     

考虑等待位置的航空器交叉滑行冲突概率模型

为解决交叉道口冲突范围定义不完整等问题,提出了航空器交叉滑行冲突概率模型。该模型针对交叉滑行道结构特点,以T型交叉口为例,综合等待位置、机身长度、喷流范围等要素,扩展冲突区域,基于实时速度、位置变化构造冲突概率模型,并利用速度分布密度函数对模型求解。仿真验证表明:模型能计算不同运动状态的中型机在T型交叉口处的冲突概率,T型道口等待位置对冲突概率影响较大,等待位置较近将造成冲突判断延迟,等待位置较远会产生虚警误判,致使滑行中断。利用实际滑行轨迹验证,结果表明:模型能够再现T型道口上2架中型机滑行冲突产生、发展及解脱过程,计算结果与实际运行情况一致,能为管制员、飞行员提前判断冲突,及时采取措施提供依据。     

基于OMI数据的中国中东部城市近地面臭氧时空分布特征研究

利用OMI卫星反演数据分析了2005—2014年中国中东部地区对流层臭氧变化趋势.结果表明,近10年来对流层臭氧总柱浓度混合比例较稳定,但近地面浓度明显增加,特别是在冬季臭氧上升速度达40%.同时分析了京津冀、长三角、珠三角地区10个重点城市的臭氧数据,发现京津冀地区的臭氧涨幅超过其他两个地区,其中,长三角地区臭氧混合比例最高,而珠三角地区相对较稳定.利用臭氧激光雷达和地面臭氧监测数据对卫星反演结果进行比较显示了较好的一致性,证明使用卫星反演的数据来研究长时间范围内近地层的臭氧变化是一种可行的方法.     

Numerical simulation of evaporation of volatile liquids

The paper presents the results of the validation of the developed pool evaporation model using literature and our own experimental data. The proposed model was used to examine the effect of wind velocity and pool sizes on the evaporation rate of volatile liquid (hexane). Contrary to the semi-empirical evaporation model widely used in hazard assessment, stronger dependence of evaporation rate on pool size at low wind speeds is obtained.     

Validation of Urban Emission Inventories

Two emission validation methods are presented. The first method focuses on the precision of the emission factors and the accuracy of modelled traffic flows. Emission factors derived from the COPERT II methodology are compared with on-board emission measurements and modelled traffic flow rates are compared with observations. The second validation method focuses on the completeness of the inventory, i.e. coverage of all sources. The method compares measured pollutant fluxes in the urban plume with the downwind transported and dispersed emissions integrated over plume width and mixing height. Both methods seem to indicate that traffic emission factors used in the urban emission inventories show large uncertainties. Besides the lack of measurement precision this is mainly induced by external influence factors like driving behaviour and vehicle maintenance.     

Modelling feeding flow related shrinkage defects in aluminum castings

The process modelling of shape casting is geometrically complex and computationally very challenging. Besides the three-dimensional complex shapes with multiple domains, the defects of interest to industry arise as a consequence of the interaction amongst a range of phenomena. Conventionally, the key phenomena and defect prediction are modelled through empirical relations applied to the simulation results. Such approaches are neither comprehensive nor reliable. This paper presents a 3-D model that is capable of predicting the formation of shrinkage defects explicitly as a function of the interacting continuum phenomena, i.e. free surface flow, heat transfer, and solidification, in complex three-dimensional geometries which allows to identify the distinction between surface depression, surface connected cavities and internal cavities.The model solves the coupled macroscopic conservation equations for mass, momentum, and energy with a phase change during solidification. In the model, the volume deficit due to solidification can either be compensated by depression of the outside surface or by creating a cavity that initiates either on the surface or in the interior of the casting. The solidification morphology is taken into account by using a parameter, which depends on the fraction solid, in the momentum equation. By using an adapted free surface algorithm, it is suitable to predict surface connected defects: depressed surfaces and caved surfaces. A critical pressure serves as a criterion to open internal shrinkage cavities. The model does not need to search for connected zones to feed shrinkage, but the shrinkage distribution will automatically emerge from the continuity equation.This advanced shrinkage model has experimentally been validated successfully using two Al-Si alloys, a skin freezing eutectic alloy and a mushy freezing hypo-eutectic alloy.     

实验室检测/校准方法的确认研究

结合实验室方法确认工作中的经验,从方法确认的内容、过程、结果以及记录的形成等方面,阐述了实验室方法确认工作有效开展的保障措施。     

Testing of a GIS model ofEucalyptus Iargiflorens health on a semiarid,saline floodplain

Irrigated agriculture has resulted in substantial changes in water flows to the lower reaches of the River Murray. These changes have led to large-scale occurrences of dieback inEucalyptus largiflorens (black box) woodlands as well as increased inputs of salt to the river. Management options to address problems of this scale call for the use of spatial data sets via geographic information systems (GIS). A GIS exists for one floodplain of the River Murray at Chowilla, and a simple model predicted six health classes ofEucalyptus largiflorens based on groundwater salinity, flooding frequency, and groundwater depth.To determine the usefulness of the model for vegetation management, the quality of both the model and the GIS data sets were tested. Success of the testing procedure was judged by the degree of spatial matching between the model's predictions of health and that assessed from aerial photographs and by field truthing. Analyses at 80 sites showed that tree health was significantly greater where groundwater salinity was less than 40 dS/m or flooding occurred more frequently than 1 in 10 years or depth to groundwater exceeded 4 m. Testing of the GIS data sets found that vegetation was misclassified at 15% of sites. Association was shown between GIS-predicted values and field-truthed values of groundwater salinity but not groundwater depth. The GIS model of health is a useful starting point for future vegetation management and can be further improved by increasing the quality of the data coverages and further refining of the model to optimize parameters and thresholds.     

Referee analyses: A better approach than data validation

Data validation, as prescribed in guidance documents provided by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), yields legal evidence that an analytical laboratory has performed analyses according to predetermined specifications. This validation process, because it involves only the checking of procedural documentation, provides minimal information concerning the technical validity of the data. Unfortunately, in the minds of many, the performance of such a data validation has become synonymous with technical validity. A better approach is to implement a routine program of referee analyses. That is, submit a predetermined number of samples from the project to a second laboratory. A routine program of this type provides a self-checking and self-correcting mechanism for determining whether data are technically valid. Publication No. 3874, Environmental Sciences Division, ORNL. Managed by Martin-Marietta Energy Systems, Inc. for the US Department of Energy under Contract No. DE-AC05-840R21400.     

Modeling of non-reactive solute transport in fractured clayey till during variable flow rate and time

Fractures and biopores can act as preferential flow paths in clay aquitards and may rapidly transmit contaminants into underlying aquifers. Reliable numerical models for assessment of groundwater contamination from such aquitards are needed for planning, regulatory and remediation purposes. In this investigation, high resolution preferential water-saturated flow and bromide transport data were used to evaluate the suitability of equivalent porous medium (EPM), dual porosity (DP) and discrete fracture/matrix diffusion (DFMD) numerical modeling approaches for assessment of flow and non-reactive solute transport in clayey till. The experimental data were obtained from four large undisturbed soil columns (taken from 1.5 to 3.5 m depth) in which biopores and channels along fractures controlled 96-99% of water-saturated flow. Simulating the transport data with the EPM effective porosity model (FRACTRAN in EPM mode) was not successful because calibrated effective porosity for the same column had to be varied up to 1 order of magnitude in order to simulate solute breakthrough for the applied flow rates between 11 and 49 mm/day. Attempts to simulate the same data with the DP models CXTFIT and MODFLOW/MT3D were also unsuccessful because fitted values for dispersion, mobile zone porosity, and mass transfer coefficient between mobile and immobile zones varied several orders of magnitude for the different flow rates, and because dispersion values were furthermore not physically realistic. Only the DFMD modeling approach (FRACTRAN in DFMD mode) was capable to simulate the observed changes in solute transport behavior during alternating flow rate without changing values of calibrated fracture spacing and fracture aperture to represent the macropores.