Evaluation of theories and calculation tools in ecology

The concept of validation is inappropriate for the evaluation of ecological models. Classification of models into logical, theoretical, and calculation tool (predictive) types provides a sounder basis for choosing an evaluation technique. The dangers of model “tuning” are presented.     

The prediction of scenic beauty from landscape content and composition

Two studies were conducted to examine distance classes of vegetation (foreground, middleground and background) and scene composition (presence of vegetation in left, center or right section of the image) as predictors of perceived scenic beauty. In study one, 41 students rated 63 landscape scenes with regard to scenic beauty. The Scenic Beauty Estimation Method was used to derive interval scale beauty values (SBEs). For each landscape image, areal measures of vegetation in each distance class and for each vertical section were taken and used as predictors. Presence of haze, clouds and human impacts were also recorded. Among the most important contributors to scenic beauty were amount of center middleground vegetation, and center background vegetation. Left foreground vegetation and right foreground vegetation were found to have significant and opposing regression weight signs—negative for the left and positive for the right. Study two was conducted to determine whether these opposing regression weight signs for foreground vegetation were due to a perceptual right-left bias or to some specific content in the image itself. In the second study, the photographic slides used to present landscape scenes to subjects were reversed so that the content which was previously on the right was now left, and vice versa. Thirty-nine students rated the reversed slides with regard to their scenic beauty. The signs of the regression weights in study two shifted such that left foreground was now positively valued and right foreground was negatively valued. This finding suggests that viewers are sensitive to foreground content and its placement in the image, and not simply to one side of the field of vision.     

National parks legislative mandate in the United States of America

Natural areas of national parks constitute unique ecological and aesthetic resources. Since the inception of national parks, it has been apparent that they are susceptible to threats that result in significant change and damage. Today, major issues concerning management of parks relate to questions of expanded visitor use and what types of facilities are to be deemed appropriate, that is, the dilemma of preservation versus use. In the United States of America, resolution of this dilemma must, strictly speaking, be based upon intent and meaning of Congressional legislation. The traditional interpretation of legislation in the U.S. has been to provide for a balance of use and preservation. However, extensive review of the literature of national park policy reveals a remarkable lack of elaboration and clarification of legislative meaning. Based upon a critical analysis of pertinent legislation, which has heretofore been ignored, we provide an interpretation of legislative meaning which strongly supports a policy of preservation of park resources.     

ECONOMIC FORECASTING FOR VIRGINIA'S WATER RESOURCE PROGRAMS1

ABSTRACT: Water resource and water quality management planning depend, to a large degree, on forecasts of industrial activity and population projections. A flexible economic data base is especially important where planning follows varying formats of geographical and industrial detail. Records of employment and payroll are collected in the administration of Unemployment Insurance (U.I.) programs and are available from State Employment Agencies. These statistics have been collected over a long period of record (thirty-five years). Many years of record are available on punched-cards or magnetic tape and may be arrayed and manipulated by computer. This basic approach has been followed in Virginia. Historical U.I. payroll and employment records for the period 1956 through 1970 were procured on magnetic tape. This data was arrayed by major hydrologic area and by regional planning district. Projections of manufacturing activity were then generated by fitting several exponential equations to annual payroll data in two-digit Standard Industrial Classifications. These exponentials were then extrapolated to provide a range of industrial projections. Other parameters of manufacturing activity were then correlated to the payroll data to generate projections of indexes such as employment, value-added, and gross manufacturing output. U.I. payroll data is now being correlated to parameters in non-manufacturing categories. Projections for industries such as trade and services will link extrapolated payroll data with benchmark correlations of payroll and sales receipts.     

灭活与非灭活条件下植物乳杆菌去除U(VI)的机理

在不同时间,pH值和生物量浓度条件下,进行了灭活与非灭活植物乳杆菌去除水中铀的对比试验,探讨了二者去除水中铀的机理,通过SEM-EDS、FTIR、XPS及XRD分析了铀与菌体表面的微观作用机理以及菌体表面沉积物的特征.结果表明：植物乳杆菌经灭活后,其吸附铀的能力得到显著的提高,当U（VI）初始浓度为10mg/L、pH值为6.0、37℃条件下,120min内灭活菌体对U（VI）的去除率为94.7%,而活菌体的去除率为88.9%.灭活菌体具有更高的铀吸附容量,在生物量浓度为0.06~0.24mg/L,pH值（3.0~7.0）条件下,灭活菌体与活菌体的U（VI）累积容量比W均大于1.SEM-EDS、FTIR分析结果表明,活细胞和灭活细胞都可通过细胞表面的羟基、酰基及羧基等官能团吸附、配位络合U（VI）.XRD分析表明,活菌体可生物磷酸矿化水中的U（VI）.活菌体的XRD谱图在2θ（18.023,25.492,27.343,40.813°处）有4个明显的磷酸铀酰晶体峰,而灭活菌体的XRD谱图显示为非晶态.XPS结果表明,活菌体可生物还原U（VI）.活菌体能谱图中U4f7/2和U4f5/2轨道出现了结合能为380.20eV和390.65eV的U（VI）分裂峰,而灭活菌体的能谱图中没有出现U（IV）的分裂峰.     

广西灌阳县观音阁响水洞的形成环境及1号石笋的古气候信息

本文根据灌阳县响水洞的成洞地质条件、生态环境以及洞穴的组成等 ,论述了洞穴的形成、发育过程。通过对响水洞 1号石笋的铀系测年 ,碳氧同位素及沉积 (间断 )纹层分析 ,获得了距今 4 4.0～ 3 .1ka高分辨率古气候演变信息。反映 4 4.0ka以来区内经历了严寒 (晚大理冰期 )、冰期后干冷和温热 (间夹短暂的冷期 )等气候变化 ,为确定响水洞的形成时代和环境提供了科学依据。     

铀尾矿库中核素U(Ⅵ)的扩散迁移试验

利用自制的设备,采用水平土柱吸渗法,测定了不同参数土壤中铀溶液的质量浓度,通过Fick扩散第二定律推导的公式计算其扩散系数。并对比氯离子迁移试验,探讨了时间、距离、土质、孔隙度等对铀扩散的影响,进而研究尾矿库中核素U(Ⅵ)的运移扩散规律。结果表明:铀和氯离子在砂质土壤中的扩散均比在黏质土壤中快,氯离子在黏土中的扩散系数D=0.354×10~(-3)m~3/d,在砂土中的扩散系数D=1.830×10~(-3)m~3/d,铀在黏土的扩散系数D=0.950×10~(-3)m~3/d,在砂土中的扩散系数D=1.623×10~(-3)m~3/d;铀在土壤中的质量浓度随扩散时间延长逐渐增大,且与扩散距离呈比例关系;铀在土壤中的扩散系数随土壤孔隙度增大而变大。     

Residential Radon in U.S. Counties V Lung Cancer in Women Who Predominantly Never Smoked

Previous studies have found that mean-residential-radon (Rn) levels for U.S. counties are negatively associated with age-adjusted county rates of lung-cancer mortality (LCM), after adjustments for potentially confounding factors. Those results may be due to (a) confounding unaddressable by any county-level (ecological) study design, or (b) county-level factors such as Rn/smoking or age/radon correlations or exposure misclassifications from the use of disparate data sources. Possibilities (b) were addressed by comparing age-specific LCM rates for white women in 2821 U.S. counties who died in 1950–54 at age 40+ (11% of whom ever smoked), or at age 60+ (% of whom ever smoked), to county Rn levels newly estimated from U.S. Rn, climatic and geological-survey data. Significant negative LCM v Rn trends were found for both age groups, after adjusting for age and subsets of 21 county-level socioeconomic, climatic and other factors. Negative trends were largest for counties with 100 Bq m^–3 Rn (p 0.00087; 420 analyses). Adjusted relative risk (RR_adj) for LCM was significantly elevated (1 < [95% conf. limits on RR_adj] 1.46) in 43 of 210 analyses comparing LCM rates in counties with > 150 Bq m^–3 v 65–100 Bq m^–3 Rn, most involving adjustment for climate- and education-related factors likely to have influenced exposure to indoor air contaminants such as Rn and cigarette smoke. Though inconclusive due to potential ecological-fallacy-related confounding that could not be controlled, results from this ecological study are most consistent with a U-shaped dose-response relationship between 1950–54 LCM risk and U.S. residential radon in white women who predominantly never smoked.     

Informing global environmental policy‐making: A plea for new methods of assessment and synthesis

Practice and research in assessment of global environmental change are dominated by two conventional assessment methods, formal models and expert panels. Models construct a representation of biophysical and socioeconomic components of a policy issue, to project future trends or consequences of interventions. Panels articulate consensus views of policyrelevant knowledge through deliberations among selected experts. These methods make valuable contributions, but are weak in addressing certain kinds of knowledge needs that are typical of globalchange issues. To address these needs, a set of novel assessment methods is proposed that combine elements of representation and deliberation. These methods, of which policy exercises, simulationgaming, and scenario exercises are examples, involve human participants in structured relevant decision and task settings. Relative to models and panels, these methods can more readily incorporate diverse perspectives, can integrate across broader collections of knowledge domains, and can both encourage creative insights and innovations, and provide tests of their relevance and practicality. Risks of bias, and of overconfident generalization from unique experiences, are effectively mitigated by critical debriefings, and appear no more severe than corresponding risks in conventional assessment methods, or in policymakers generalizations from historical experience. While serious development and implementation challenges remain, early experience suggests that these methods can offer useful ideas and insights for policymaking that are not available through other means.