汶川大地震简支梁桥落梁震害与设计对策

总结了5· 12汶川大地震中简支梁桥落梁震害及主要影响因素,发现除地震山体滑坡等地质灾害外,断层地表破裂、近断层地震动效应、桥台胸墙冲切破坏、防落梁构造措施单一及桥梁体型复杂等因素都是引起简支梁桥落粱震害的重要原因.提出了简支梁桥防落梁设计的基本理念及相关技术方案要点为允许墩梁间发生滑移,以降低桥墩承受的地震惯性力,以...     

Building a model of commitment to the natural environment to predict ecological behavior and willingness to sacrifice

We examined the connection between individuals’ relationships with the natural environment and their environmental behaviors with a focus on commitment to the environment, defined as psychological attachment and long-term orientation to the natural world. Commitment is theorized to emerge from structural interdependence with the environment and to lead to pro-environmental behaviors. Close relationships research has identified three key antecedents to commitment (satisfaction, alternatives, and investments). We developed environment-specific measures of these constructs, and factor analysis verified three distinct factors. A path analysis revealed that satisfaction with the environment and investments in the environment, but not alternatives to the environment, predicted commitment to the environment. Moreover, commitment mediated the effects of satisfaction and investments on general ecological behavior and willingness to sacrifice for the environment. In regression analyses, commitment predicted general ecological behavior and willingness to sacrifice for the environment, even when controlling for ecological worldview, inclusion of nature in the self, connectedness to nature, and environmental identity. Individuals who are satisfied with and invested in the natural world are likely to be committed to the environment and act with the well-being of the environment in mind.     

Using local knowledge to model asymmetric preference formation in willingness to pay for environmental services

This paper describes an approach to account for asymmetric preference formation in discrete choice models used for environmental valuation. The paper draws on data from a case study on preferences for environmental change resulting from a hypothetical rural development and conservation programme in Indonesia. Local knowledge on the current state of the environment was used to define an individual-specific status quo that consistently frames changes in a range of environmental services as gains or losses matching the perceptions of the local population living in the vicinity of a National Park. I estimated choice models that included separate parameters for increases and decreases in attribute levels for the environmental services and derived the indicators of local willingness to pay (WTP) corresponding to the bidirectional changes relative to the individual-specific status quo option. I found clear evidence of an asymmetric response to increase and decrease in attribute levels relative to the status quo. Ignoring asymmetric preference formation can therefore result in biased estimates of WTP indicators and welfare measures of change in cases where the outcomes of environmental programmes can plausibly result in both an increase and a decrease relative to a reference option. Compared to a symmetrical modelling approach, the combination of simultaneously accounting for asymmetric preference formation and preference heterogeneity in the choice model yielded additional insights that may be used to inform the development of local strategies towards biodiversity conservation.     

Estimating irrigation water demand in the Moroccan Drâa Valley using contingent valuation

Irrigation water management is crucial for agricultural production and livelihood security in Morocco as in many other parts of the world. For the implementation of an effective water management, knowledge about farmers' demand for irrigation water is crucial to assess reactions to water pricing policy, to establish a cost-benefit analysis of water supply investments or to determine the optimal water allocation between different users. Previously used econometric methods providing this information often have prohibitive data requirements. In this paper, the Contingent Valuation Method (CVM) is adjusted to derive a demand function for irrigation water along farmers' willingness to pay for one additional unit of surface water or groundwater. An application in the Middle Draa Valley in Morocco shows that the method provides reasonable results in an environment with limited data availability. For analysing the censored survey data, the Least Absolute Deviation estimator was found to be a more suitable alternative to the Tobit model as errors are heteroscedastic and non-normally distributed. The adjusted CVM to derive demand functions is especially attractive for water scarce countries under limited data availability.     

绝缘电阻表的禁忌分析与对策

根据绝缘电阻表的设计原理、技术条件和计量工程及电气安全的技术要求,结合实际工作中的经验教训,针对绝缘电阻表在应用中的错误行为,阐述了绝缘电阻表在选用、接线、摇测、读数和保养等主要使用环节方面的十六种禁忌行为,而且对每种禁忌行为均提出了正确的测试操作方法及预防措施。     

大型活动中人群的应急行为研究综述

为完善对大型活动的应急处理能力,预防应急事件发生,研究人群在应急状况下的行为反应及疏散中的行为决策。从应急管理和救援的角度,对国内外现有文献进行梳理,分析大型活动背景下人群的应急行为和疏散时间、应急疏散模型、应急逃生的调查实证、交通及人流行为特征和组织与疏散方案等方面的研究现状,指出当前国内外大多数文献较多地侧重于利用计算机模拟火灾环境以研究单一建筑体中人的应急疏散行为,行为调查以事后调查为主,对火灾环境之外的其他突发应急事件及个体行为特征的研究等较少。同时,基于试验性研究的应急心理反应对于行为的影响研究,以及群体信任和他人行为对于行为决策的影响等可以作为未来研究的重要方向。     

论《诗经》的防灾救灾思想

我国是一个自然灾害发生比较频繁的国家,而中华民族防灾救灾的思想意识也是源远流长、极为丰富的。这些思想构成了中国优秀传统文化的重要组成部分。《诗经》中也有很多与防灾救灾思想相关的内容,如在天命禳弭、仓储备荒、疏导灌溉等方面都给我们留下一笔宝贵财富,对于我们今后的防灾救灾也将产生积极的启迪。     

建设生态文明 探寻环保之路

当前,中央把生态文明建设与经济建设、政治建设、文化建设、社会建设并列为五大建设,并把它作为中国特色社会主义事业总体布局的重要组成部分。本文试图透过对生态文明的内涵和基本特征的分析,来探寻当前环保工作的新思路。     

事故经济损失分类及评估方法研究综述*

为系统了解事故的经济损失分类、评估方法以及发展方向,通过文献综述的方法,回顾事故经济损失的研究起源,总结主要的分类方法,归纳评估方法的主要特点,分析评估难点并展望未来可能的研究方向。研究结果表明:事故经济损失统计项目难以全部列出,须在其构成价值与评估所需努力之间相权衡;在事后全面准确评估经济损失仍是未来的研究重点,其有益于统计标准的制修订,而事前评估则是1个新兴的方向;很难选择合适的直间比来评估间接经济损失,未来需开发1种简单灵活的评估方法。研究结果可为未来事故经济损失分类和评估的研究应用提供理论和数据支撑。     

城市轨道交通运营安全事故多圈层匹配创新研究*

为了实现城市轨道交通运营安全事故管理经验的有效重用,运用主题爬虫技术和Access数据库构建城市轨道交通运营安全事故案例库;细分事故文本数据,提取案例关键特征属性,形成相似案例匹配基础;针对案例推理技术在实践应用中存在的不足,创新提出多圈层相似案例匹配策略,并用实例进行验证。研究结果表明:多圈层相似案例匹配策略在城市轨道交通运营安全事故检索应用中具有可行性和高效性。研究结果可对实现事故管理经验重用提供有效借鉴。