Analysis of the Trend and Seasonal Cycle of Carbon Monoxide Concentrations in an Urban Area (4 pp)

Background, Aim and Scope Air quality is an field of major concern in large cities. This problem has led administrations to introduce plans and regulations to reduce pollutant emissions. The analysis of variations in the concentration of pollutants is useful when evaluating the effectiveness of these plans. However, such an analysis cannot be undertaken using standard statistical techniques, due to the fact that concentrations of atmospheric pollutants often exhibit a lack of normality and are autocorrelated. On the other hand, if long-term trends of any pollutant’s emissions are to be detected, meteorological effects must be removed from the time series analysed, due to their strong masking effects. Materials and Methods The application of statistical methods to analyse temporal variations is illustrated using monthly carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations observed at an urban site. The sampling site is located at a street intersection in central Valencia (Spain) with a high traffic density. Valencia is the third largest city in Spain. It is a typical Mediterranean city in terms of its urban structure and climatology. The sampling site started operation in January 1994 and monitored CO ground level concentrations until February 2002. Its geographic coordinates are W0°22′52″ N39°28′05″ and its altitude is 11 m. Two nonparametric trend tests are applied. One of these is robust against serial correlation with regards to the false rejection rate, when observations have a strong persistence or when the sample size per month is small. A nonparametric analysis of the homogeneity of trends between seasons is also discussed. A multiple linear regression model is used with the transformed data, including the effect of meteorological variables. The method of generalized least squares is applied to estimate the model parameters to take into account the serial dependence of the residuals of this model. This study also assesses temporal changes using the Kolmogorov-Zurbenko (KZ) filter. The KZ filter has been shown to be an effective way to remove the influence of meteorological conditions on O₃ and PM to examine underlying trends. Results The nonparametric tests indicate a decreasing, significant trend in the sampled site. The application of the linear model yields a significant decrease every twelve months of 15.8% for the average monthly CO concentration. The 95% confidence interval for the trend ranges from 13.9% to 17.7%. The seasonal cycle also provides significant results. There are no differences in trends throughout the months. The percentage of CO variance explained by the linear model is 90.3%. The KZ filter separates out long, short-term and seasonal variations in the CO series. The estimated, significant, long-term trend every year results in 10.3% with this method. The 95% confidence interval ranges from 8.8% to 11.9%. This approach explains 89.9% of the CO temporal variations. Discussion The differences between the linear model and KZ filter trend estimations are due to the fact that the KZ filter performs the analysis on the smoothed data rather than the original data. In the KZ filter trend estimation, the effect of meteorological conditions has been removed. The CO short-term componentis attributable to weather and short-term fluctuations in emissions. There is a significant seasonal cycle. This component is a result of changes in the traffic, the yearly meteorological cycle and the interactions between these two factors. There are peaks during the autumn and winter months, which have more traffic density in the sampled site. There is a minimum during the month of August, reflecting the very low level of vehicle emissions which is a direct consequence of the holiday period. Conclusions The significant, decreasing trend implies to a certain extent that the urban environment in the area is improving. This trend results from changes in overall emissions, pollutant transport, climate, policy and economics. It is also due to the effect of introducing reformulated gasoline. The additives enable vehicles to burn fuel with a higher air/fuel ratio, thereby lowering the emission of CO. The KZ filter has been the most effective method to separate the CO series components and to obtain an estimate of the long-term trend due to changes in emissions, removing the effect of meteorological conditions. Recommendations and Perspectives Air quality managers and policy-makers must understand the link between climate and pollutants to select optimal pollutant reduction strategies and avoid exceeding emission directives. This paper analyses eight years of ambient CO data at a site with a high traffic density, and provides results that are useful for decision-making. The assessment of long-term changes in air pollutants to evaluate reduction strategies has to be done while taking into account meteorological variability     

哈密地区环境中^220Rn子体α潜能浓度所致居民剂量估算

用ＳｔｒａｎｄｅｎＥ．推荐的测量方法对哈密地区环境空气中２２０Ｒｎ子体α潜能浓度测量结果表明，室内、外平均值分别为５６．１和１０．２（×１０－７Ｊ·ｍ－３）。室内外２２０Ｒｎ／２２２Ｒｎ子体α潜能浓度比值分别为０．８４和０３２。２２０Ｒｎ子体所致居民有效剂量当量为２２８μＳｖ·ａ－１（集体有效剂量当量为０．９×０２ｍａｎ·Ｓｖ）。     

超细煤矸石矿粉作天然橡胶补强填充剂的性能研究

以煤矸石为原料，通过超细粉碎、表面改性等深度加工，制取了一种新的橡胶补强剂，并对煤矸石作补强剂影响因素进行初步的研究，实验表明它能够取代或部分取代炭黑用作天然橡胶的补强剂。     

Genetically Modified (GM) Crops: Precautionary Science and Conflicts of Interests

Risk governance of GM plants and GMfood products is presently subject to heatedscientific and public controversies. Scientistsand representatives of the biotechnologyindustry have dominated debates concerningsafety issues. The public is suspicious withregard to the motives of scientists, companies,and political institutions involved. Thedilemmas posed are nested, embracing valuequestions, scientific uncertainty, andcontextual issues. The obvious lack of data andinsufficient information concerning ecologicaleffects call for application of thePrecautionary Principle (PP). There are,however, divergent opinions among scientistsabout the relevance of putative hazards,definition of potential ``adverse effects,' andwhether actions should be taken to preventharm. The reliance on the concept ofsubstantial equivalence in safety evaluation ofGM food is equally controversial. Consequently,value assumptions embedded in a scientificframework may be a barrier for employment ofthe PP. One of our major conclusions is thatprecautionary GMP usage requires riskassessment criteria yet undeveloped, as well asbroader and more long-term conceptions of risk,uncertainty, and ignorance. Conflicts ofinterest and public participation are otherissues that need to be taken intoconsideration. GMP governance regimes that arejustifiable from a precautionary and ethicalpoint of view must transcend traditionalscientific boundaries to include alternativescientific perspectives as well as publicinvolvement.     

You Are What You Eat: Genetically Modified Foods, Integrity, and Society

Thus far, the moral debateconcerning genetically modified foods (GMF) hasfocused on extrinsic consequentialist questionsabout the health effects, environmental impacts,and economic benefits of such foods. Thisextrinsic approach to the morality of GMF isdependent on unsubstantiated empirical claimsand fails to account for the intrinsic moralvalue of food and food choice and theirconnection to the agent's concept of the goodlife. I develop a set of objections to GMFgrounded in the concept of integrity andmaintain that food and food choice can beintimately connected to the agent's personalintegrity. I argue that due to the constitutionof GMF and the manner in which they areproduced, such foods are incompatible with thefundamental values and integrity of certainindividual moral agents or groups. I identifythree types of integrity that are threatened byGMF: religious, consumer, and integrity basedon certain other moral or metaphysical grounds.I maintain that these types of integrity aresufficiently important to provide justificationfor political and societal actions to protectthe interests of those affected. I conclude byproposing specific steps for handling GMFconsistent with the moral principles ofinformed consent, non-maleficence, and respectfor the integrity of all members of society.They include mandatory labeling of GMF, theimplementation of a system for control andregulations concerning such foods, andguaranteed provision of conventional foods.     

论三峡库区城市污水、垃圾处理市场化

论述了用市场化模式解决三峡库区城市污水处理场和垃圾处理场的建设和运营问题，并提出了市场化的总体架构。     

中国灾害的军事救援及其机制研究

中国是一个灾害频繁的国家。灾害造成了巨大的直接、间接经济损失和人员伤亡，对社会经济发展产生了严重的影响。中国的具体国情和人民解放军的特殊性质，决定了军事救援历来在中国的灾害救援中具有不可替代的地位，发挥着突击队和生力军的作用。由于客观上存在着一些制约因素，使得军事救援的实施效率受到了一定程度的影响，未能得到最大限度的发挥。因此，必须尽快建立适应新时期军队执行抢险救灾任务需要的军事救援机制。     

多目标灰色关联度决策模型分析

本文针对多目标决策的复杂性,运用灰色系统分析方法和物元分析理论,建立了决策方案的评价体系并对评价指标进行规范化处理。以决策方案的灰色关联度作为评判准则,建立了一种目标灰色关联度决策模型。     

关于制定连云港市水土保持生态建设规划的思考

连云港市地处欧亚大陆桥的东桥头堡,是沿海十四个开放城市之一,国家定位是将其建设成为连接太平洋沿岸与中亚地区的国际商贸中心和全国性的旅游城市。而目前的山丘区水土流失严重,植被稀少,生态环境恶化,与国家定位目标和连云港市发展目标相差甚远。因此在制定水土保持生态环境建设规划时,必须紧紧围绕改善生态环境这条主线,以增加农民收入和改善生存条件为突破口,因地制宜,坚持长期综合治理,方能实现“山川秀美”之目标。     

浅谈加强党内监督的几种途径

本文以从严治党、加强党风廉政建设的角度出发,提出加强党内监督的三个途径,以便抓好党员干部廉洁自律,遏制腐败现象,建立一整套行之有效的党内监督机制,用制度来保证党内监督的有效开展。