大气监测仪器维护检修能力的评价

一直以来,环境大气监测的数据精度与维护成本,始终是数据应用部门和数据提供部门的难题之一.作者谷学先生根据多年的实档践,首次提出,运用数据对大气监测仪器维护管理进行评价的可行性,并试图建立仪器维护管理作业量化的评价系统.在仪器维护管理中,任何时候,都很难完全排除技术水平比较低的仪器维护检修人员,为了回避这种实际情况,作者通过对数字的分析指出,急需构建环境大气监测仪器维护管理业务能力的评价系统,并期待地方自制体通过评价手段,来选择和指导监测仪器维护管理人员.从而提高数据的精度和减低运转经费的开支.     

城市污染源空间信息系统及集成模式试验研究

以厦门市为对象开展的城市环境信息系统的试验研究中，基于地理信息系统（ＧＩＳ）平台和对象组件，通过建立城市环境空间数据库和污染源监测属性数据库，以及污染源信息管理决策支持系统，实现城市环境污染源空间增减、查询、统计分析的可视化。在分析了城市环境空间数据特点的基础上，提出环境空间信息系统的开发模式，并对应用系统的体系结构和紧密集成模式作了探讨。     

格尔木井地下流体主测项数据可靠性分析

本文介绍了格尔木井的基本情况及所架数字仪器的技术系统构成，对水位、地热、气氡等主测项2003年1月1日-2004年12月31日的数字化资料进行了初步分析，发现地热数据基本稳定；气氡数据由原集气装置的不合理，数据上下波动较大，基本无法使用，经改造后，数据趋于稳定；水位受到调节集气装置出水量的影响，但排除该影响后数据基本可以使用。     

用灰色组合模型预测环保投资

针对环保投资变化的非平稳性，采用灰以ＧＭ（１，１）模型分析环保投资的趋势项并与历史环保投资比较得一系列残差，然后应用人工神经网络模型进行了正以提高精度。     

Use of Integrated Modeling to Enhance Estimates of Population Dynamics Obtained from Limited Data

Abstract:  Demographic data of rare and endangered species are often too sparse to estimate vital rates and population size with sufficient precision for understanding population growth and decline. Yet, the combination of different sources of demographic data into one statistical model holds promise. We applied Bayesian integrated population modeling to demographic data from a colony of the endangered greater horseshoe bats (Rhinolophus ferrumequinum) . Available data were the number of subadults and adults emerging from the colony roost at dusk, the number of newborns from 1991 to 2005, and recapture data of subadults and adults from 2004 and 2005. Survival rates did not differ between sexes, and demographic rates remained constant across time. The greater horseshoe bat is a long-lived species with high survival rates (first year: 0.49 [SD 0.06]; adults: 0.91 [SD 0.02]) and low fecundity (0.74 [SD 0.12]). The yearly average population growth was 4.4% (SD 0.1%) and there were 92 (SD 10) adults in the colony in year 2005. Had we analyzed each data set separately, we would not have been able to estimate fecundity, the estimates of survival would have been less precise, and the estimate of population growth biased. Our results demonstrate that integrated models are suitable for obtaining crucial demographic information from limited data.     

Significance of Sighting Rate in Inferring Extinction and Threat

Abstract:  We are now entering a time of immense environmental upheaval in which, increasingly, experts are required to provide conservation assessments. Quantitative assessment of trends in species' range and abundance is costly, requiring extensive field studies over a long period of time. Unfortunately, many species are only known through a few "chance" sightings or a handful of specimens, and therefore extinction may be even harder to ascertain. Several methods have been proposed for estimating the probability of extinction. However, comparison within and between species is difficult because of variations in sighting rates. We applied a probabilistic method that incorporates sighting rate to the sighting record of Vietnamese slipper orchids ( Paphiopedilum ). The method generates a probability that another sighting will occur given the previous sighting rate and the time since last observation. This allows greater comparability between species discovered at different times. Its predictions were more highly correlated with the World Conservation Union criteria than previous methods. Trends in data collection and the political climate of a country, which affects access to material, are important potential sources of variation that affect sighting rates. A lack of understanding of the process by which data are generated makes inferring extinction from sighting records difficult because extinction status depends on how the sighting rate varies. However, such methods allow rapid conservation prioritization of taxa that are poorly known and would otherwise go unassessed.     

Air pollution effects on hospital admissions: a statistical analysis of parallel time series

A statistical model for longitudinal count data is used to examine the potential adverse health effects of ambient air pollution. Daily respiratory admissions to 164 acute care hospitals in Ontario are obtained for the period 1983 to 1988. Estimates of ozone levels in the vicinity of each hospital are determined from air pollution monitoring stations maintained by the Ontario Ministry of the Environment. Generalized estimating equation methods are used to make inferences about the regression and overdispersion parameters. The admission data display little evidence of serial correlation and extra Poisson variation. However, admission rates vary considerably among hospitals. This latter source of variation needs to be taken into account in examining the effects of air pollution on respiratory health status.     

基于BP网络的水质综合评价模型及其应用

讨论了BP网络模型存在的不足及建模条件,提出了建立合理的BP网络模型的基本原则和步骤.针对水质评价问题,通过在各类水质污染指标浓度区间内生成随机分布样本的方法,组成足够多用于BP网络训练、检验和测试用的样本,建立了辽河水质综合评价的BP网络模型;给出了区分不同类别水质的模型分界值样本和模型输出分界值.     

空气自动监测系统软件开发及数据整合模式探讨

空气自动监测系统的仪器仪表多样化，以及数据采集装置和数据格式的差异，给系统软硬件的集成，以及数据应用和管理带来了不便，也是构成空气自动监测信息化进程中的技术瓶颈之一，通过对空气自动监测系统软件开发和数据整合模式的对比分析，探讨了解决问题的途径。     

Incorporating Collateral Data in Conservation Biology

Abstract:  Conservation biologists often need to set ecological modeling assumptions or estimate parameters from sparse data. In some cases this problem can be addressed by incorporating data from closely related species or from the same species at different sites (i.e., collateral data). Currently no structured methods exist for incorporating such information. An analogous problem in Actuarial science is to set premium rates in situations with little direct data on claim frequency or size. The rates are estimated using actuarial credibility theory, which incorporates collateral data with the direct data. actuarial credibility theory combined with the actuarial control cycle financial management process also provides an adaptive mechanism for updating assumptions. This theory may have some utility for ecologists wanting to incorporate collateral data in an adaptive management framework, a companion to approaches such as Bayesian updating. We describe the historical development of actuarial credibility theory from early ad hoc methods to empirical Bayes approaches. We explore some of the theory's strengths, such as relative simple formulae for incorporation collateral data, and we explore some of the theory's weaknesses, such as the use of the best linear approximation to the Bayes estimate. We illustrate potential applications of the theory using an example on the mortality rate of the Powerful Owl (  Ninox strenua ).