Integrated model for renewable energy planning in Turkey

All economic sectors are associated with energy use; therefore, government organizations aim to supply sustainable energy for human needs and economic growth. In particular, increased environmental concerns of the public in Turkey have impacted policymaking for renewable energy (RE) management in Turkey. The primary objective for RE sources of the Turkish Ministry of Energy is to ensure that 30% of the share of electricity production is from RE resources in 2023. In this paper, the integrated multi-objective, multi-period linear programming model is presented to determine effective allocation of RE supply for seven different geographical regions in Turkey for the period of 2017 to 2024. The integrated model consists of two different stages. The first stage involves qualitative evaluations of RE sources for seven geographical regions. Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) is applied to determine criteria priorities and overall ratings of geographical regions across determined criteria for RE sources are computed. The second stage of the integrated model consists of a multi-objective, multi-period linear programming model. The proposed multi-objective linear programming model is coded in MPL (Mathematical Programming Language) and solved using the GUROBI 5.1.0 solver. The output of the integrated model presents the total supply amount of RE sources for geographical regions in planning period. The ε-constraints method is applied to compute the total supply amount of RE from geographical regions for the period of 2017 to 2024. In this study, a systematic decision-making model is generated to allocate renewable energy sources to the geographical regions. The presented model integrates qualitative evaluations and quantitative parameters of different geographical regions to determine the optimal supply amount of RE. The obtained results are consistent with the potential quantities of RE alternatives in geographical regions, regional specifications, and social requirements.     

DETERMINATION OF SEDIMENT YIELD BY TRANSFERRING RAINFALL DATA1

ABSTRACT: A methodology for obtaining the optimal design value to allow for sediment storage in a reservoir is presented for the situation where no data on sediment loads in the incoming streams are available. Information concerning the amount of sediment delivered to the reservoir over its life-time is obtained by a sediment yield model which uses data on rainfall amount and duration obtained from a nearby experimental watershed. Bayesian Decision Theory is used to obtain the optimal storage requirements in order to consider the natural variation of rainfall and the sampling error due to the short rainfall record available. The normally difficult calculations involved were made tractable by the use of simplifications and approximations valid in the context of the problem. Results show that sediment storage requirements can be calculated in this manner and that consideration of the uncertainties involved leads to a storage requirement substantially larger than that calculated without such consideration.     

Hazardous waste indicators for national decision makers

Indicators and indices are important tools that assist decision makers to formulate and implement plans for management at local, national and international levels. Four indicators for hazardous waste management are described that have recently been adopted within the United Nations framework of Indicators of Sustainable Development. Although these four indicators will be useful tools, the need for a broader range of policy-relevant qualitative and quantitative indicators, proxy indicators and indices is outlined. The argument is advanced that in order for all nations to better manage the range of hazardous waste issues, including waste generation, export/import and disposal, a set of innovative indicators and indices is required. Useful indicators and indices are described that could be used to link and quantify likely environmental, ecosystem and health impacts and risks especially from hazardous waste disposal. Indicators are also suggested that could be used to illustrate the shift in industrial strategy away from end-of-pipe processes towards waste recycling, cleaner production and integrated life-cycle analysis. It was concluded that until the lack of reliable and harmonized data on hazardous waste is addressed, indicator development and use by national and international decision makers cannot readily be implemented.     

Balancing Emotion and Cognition: a Case for Decision Aiding in Conservation Efforts

Abstract: Despite advances in the quality of participatory decision making for conservation, many current efforts still suffer from an inability to bridge the gap between science and policy. Judgment and decision‐making research suggests this gap may result from a person's reliance on affect‐based shortcuts in complex decision contexts. I examined the results from 3 experiments that demonstrate how affect (i.e., the instantaneous reaction one has to a stimulus) influences individual judgments in these contexts and identified techniques from the decision‐aiding literature that help encourage a balance between affect‐based emotion and cognition in complex decision processes. In the first study, subjects displayed a lack of focus on their stated conservation objectives and made decisions that reflected their initial affective impressions. Value‐focused approaches may help individuals incorporate all the decision‐relevant objectives by making the technical and value‐based objectives more salient. In the second study, subjects displayed a lack of focus on statistical risk and again made affect‐based decisions. Trade‐off techniques may help individuals incorporate relevant technical data, even when it conflicts with their initial affective impressions or other value‐based objectives. In the third study, subjects displayed a lack of trust in decision‐making authorities when the decision involved a negatively affect‐rich outcome (i.e., a loss). Identifying shared salient values and increasing procedural fairness may help build social trust in both decision‐making authorities and the decision process.     

基于数值模拟的公交车火灾发展过程及特性研究

采用数值模拟方法研究典型型号公交车的火灾发展过程,探讨车门打开对火情发展和人员逃生的影响.通过描述火源、公交车的结构及其内饰物的属性,研究车厢内关键位置的温度分布、能见度及CO和O2体积分数的变化规律,以揭示公交车的火灾发展、烟气运动过程及对人员安全逃生的影响.结果表明:车门打开后由于供氧充足,明显加速了火势的蔓延和烟气扩散,并使得燃烧温度显著提高;打开车门后20 s内,车门附近能见度和O2体积分数显著增高,CO体积分数有所降低,是乘客逃生的关键时间.     

固定化微生物吸附剂对Cr3+的吸附特性研究

从皮革铬鞣、复鞣污泥等处分离、纯化出4株菌株TP、XB、MY和TQ,采用海藻酸钠悬滴法并添加膨润土制成微生物固定化吸附剂,研究该吸附剂对低质量浓度Cr3+的吸附特性。结果表明,4种固定化颗粒对低质量浓度Cr3+有较好的吸附作用。实验室条件下,当吸附温度为30℃时,6 h后固定化吸附剂进入缓慢吸附和平衡吸附阶段。吸附等温曲线拟合研究表明,不同温度下吸附剂适合不同的等温模型。4种微生物吸附剂均与Lagrange拟二级动力学模型拟合最佳,且吸附量从高到低为TQ、TP、XB、MY。颗粒内扩散模型研究表明,20℃下XB和MY对Cr3+的吸附分为快速吸附和缓慢吸附阶段;30℃和40℃下固定化颗粒均呈现表面吸附—缓慢吸附—平衡吸附过程。热力学研究表明,吸附反应均属于自发进行的吸热过程,并且均是化学吸附。     

基于RS&GIS的长白山地区生态安全评价研究

以遥感影像数据、专题数据、DEM数据、气象站实测数据和统计数据为数据源,采用极差法、层次分析法、综合指数法、RS&GIS等方法对长白山地区的生态安全进行了评价.结果表明:长白山地区生态安全水平呈现出明显的空间差异性,整体由中部向东西两端逐渐降低.各生态安全等级面积从大到小为临界安全等级、较安全等级、不安全等级、较不安全等级、安全等级.统计了各行政单元的平均生态安全指数和等级构成,各县市生态安全水平从高到低为长白县、抚松县、安图县、和龙市、临江市,各县市的生态安全等级构成也有所差异.长白山地区生态安全水平以临界安全等级为主,整体上生态环境质量一般,系统服务功能受到了一定程度的破坏.     

兰州地区人群对六六六的暴露及健康风险评价

为研究兰州地区六六六(HCH)对人群的健康风险,应用改进的美国环境保护署(US EPA)多介质暴露模型,结合兰州地区人群状况,计算了各年龄人群通过11种暴露途径对六六六的暴露量.结果表明,兰州地区居民对环境中六六六的终身日平均暴露量为2.01×10-5 mg/(k·d)(儿童)和2.53×10-5 mg/(kg·d)(成人).暴露途径中以食物暴露为主导,其次是呼吸暴露,皮肤暴露作用很小.食物中贡献较大的为谷物和蔬菜.相应的健康风险度分别为5.40×10-9 a-1(男性)和6.30× 10-9a-1(女性).兰州地区六六六居民人体健康风险度低于可接受健康风险度标准,兰州地区六六六人群暴露水平与天津、太原、太湖地区相比存在一定的差异,女性对六六六的暴露量高于男性.兰州人群成人的六六六暴露量大于儿童,成人是六六六暴露风险最高的群体.各项参数中,谷物和蔬菜摄食量和相应的六六六残留浓度是影响暴露的重要因素.通过蒙特卡罗模拟得到各年龄段人群对HCH的日均暴露量的分布特征,各输出变量均服从对数正态分布.     

上海松江泖港地区蟹种养殖对水质的影响

为了探究河蟹蟹种养殖模式对水环境的影响,于2012年6-10月,对上海松江泖港地区蟹种池塘和水源的水质进行了监测.结果表明,在整个养殖周期中,蟹种池CODMn不断增长,水源水的变化趋势为先增后减.在多数时段,水源水亚硝酸盐质量浓度高于蟹种池,但6月26日蟹种池反而显著高于水源水(p＜0.05).在整个监测过程中,水源水硝酸盐质量浓度均显著高于蟹种养殖池(p＜0.05).养殖前期,水源水磷酸盐质量浓度高于蟹种池;养殖后期蟹种池高于水源水,但均无显著差异(p＞0.05).台风过境后,水源水氨氮质量浓度达2.21 mg/L,磷酸盐质量浓度达0.467 mg/L,表明农田化肥水和地表径流可能是导致水源水体富营养化的重要原因.