基于大数据分析与认知技术的空气质量预报预警平台

为深入认识区域大气污染现象规律,完善并提高城市空气质量预报预警能力,提高大气污染治理决策支持能力,开展城市污染成因分析与空气质量预报预警研究是十分必要的。本文针对环境大数据时代下的城市空气质量预报,提出了一种基于大数据分析与认知技术的专业先进的大气环境业务应用系统体系。该体系基于底层统一的数据资源中心,融合各类不同类型的空气质量监测、不同预报系统的产品数据以及基础辅助数据,建立数据汇交、共享、质控管理机制,通过上层预报预警、综合分析、案例分析、应急决策支持四大子系统,从多模式集合预报结合专家调优支撑高性能预报会商应用,从大数据融合时空关联分析深度挖掘大气复合污染特征与污染成因,从多维度历史污染过程和天气形势全自动化认知分析支撑重污染过程研判,从业务化仿真情景方案与污染溯源助力专业应急决策。最后,通过在北京市环境保护监测中心的系统实现证明体系的高性能、稳定性和实用性。     

Climate Change Reporting in Great Lakes Region Newspapers: A Comparative Study of the Use of Expert Sources

This study focuses on the use of science sources as experts in news stories about climate change coverage in the Great Lakes region of the US and Canada. We examine, using the hierarchy of influences model, whether the use of scientific sources in climate change coverage may be related to factors such as geographic location, reporting frequency, and authorship, in the prestige press as well as regional and local media. The study found that as many or more non-scientists than scientists are selected as sources regardless of geographic location, reporting frequency, or authorship. However, the study also found that the more stories reporters produce on this topic, the more likely their stories are to use and give prominence to science sources. In addition, the articles included few denier sources, but denier views are more likely to appear in a more prominent location in the articles than supporters when stories are framed as conflict over global warming. These results highlight the need for additional research examining the expertise of climate scientists in news stories to better understand news decision-making in the context of complex scientific reporting.     

Policy Characterization of Ecosystem management

This paper provides a comparison of ecosystem management (EM) to the traditional regulatory management approach and outlines the characteristics of EM from a policy perspective, defining the conditions under which this management tool can be successfully implemented. Ecosystem management is a collaborative and integrative tool focused on balancing societal needs, economic growth, and environmental protection to ensure the long-term ecological integrity of a particular ecosystem. The characteristics of this particular tool include: (1) its holistic approach to environmental problems; (2) its integration of values (economic, social, and environmental) through a collaborative, multi-partner, decision making structure; (3) its reliance on science to guide decisions and set boundaries; and (4) its ability to learn from the implementation of decisions (adaptive management). Examples are draw from Environment Canada's various regional ecosystem initiatives.     

Siting and Routing Assessment for Solid Waste Management Under Uncertainty Using the Grey Mini-Max Regret Criterion

Solid waste management (SWM) is at the forefront of environmental concerns in the Lower Rio Grande Valley (LRGV), South Texas. The complexity in SWM drives area decision makers to look for innovative and forward-looking solutions to address various waste management options. In decision analysis, it is not uncommon for decision makers to go by an option that may minimize the maximum regret when some determinant factors are vague, ambiguous, or unclear. This article presents an innovative optimization model using the grey mini-max regret (GMMR) integer programming algorithm to outline an optimal regional coordination of solid waste routing and possible landfill/incinerator construction under an uncertain environment. The LRGV is an ideal location to apply the GMMR model for SWM planning because of its constant urban expansion, dwindling landfill space, and insufficient data availability signifying the planning uncertainty combined with vagueness in decision-making. The results give local decision makers hedged sets of options that consider various forms of systematic and event-based uncertainty. By extending the dimension of decision-making, this may lead to identifying a variety of beneficial solutions with efficient waste routing and facility siting for the time frame of 2005 through 2010 in LRGV. The results show the ability of the GMMR model to open insightful scenario planning that can handle situational and data-driven uncertainty in a way that was previously unavailable. Research findings also indicate that the large capital investment of incineration facilities makes such an option less competitive among municipal options for landfills. It is evident that the investment from a municipal standpoint is out of the question, but possible public–private partnerships may alleviate this obstacle.     

最优环境工程方案遴选模型的建立与应用

根据层次分析法的原理,建立了遴选最优环境工程方案的层次结构模型。模型兼顾了效益与投资,不仅简化了专家或决策者的判断难度,而且判断结果直观,各方案的优劣对比清晰。给合某啤酒废水治理工程项目,介绍了层次分析模型应用于工程方案遴选中的计算过程。结果表明,应用此模型对环境工程方案进行优选比较科学、简便。     

Long-Term Planning of Waste Management System in the City of Regina – an Integrated Inexact Optimization Approach

In this study, an integrated solid waste management system based on inexact fuzzy-stochastic mixed integer linear programming (IFSMILP) has been applied to the long-term planning of waste management activities in the City of Regina. The model can effectively reflect dynamic, interactive, and uncertain characteristics of the solid waste management system in the city. The results have provided useful answers for the following questions: “What waste reduction goals are desired if the existing landfill's life is prolonged for 15 years?”, “What should be the waste flow allocation pattern in the city?”, “What should be done if the waste generation rate increases rapidly, while the relevant handling capacity is limited?”, and “What level of reliability will we have given the suggested waste management plan?”     

熵权多目标决策环境监测优化布点模型及应用

熵是热力学中的重要概念,表示一个信息源发出信号状态的不确定程度。熵权表明某指标在决策或评估问题中提供有用信息量的多少,即指标的相对重要程度。本研究介绍熵权的基本概念、性质,分析其在环境监测优化布点应用中的独到之处,建立熵权多目标决策优选模型,并应用于某市大气环境监测优化布点。案例分析结果表明,该优选模型在污染因子权重分析中优选结果合理。     

判别分析与决策树分析在化学物质生态危害分类中的应用

运用Fisher判别、马氏距离判别和决策树分析3种方法对61种环境优先污染物的生态危害程度进行分类,并比较了各模型的分类正确率.结果显示,决策树分析方法分类正确率最高,为92%;马氏距离判别其次,为87%;Fisher判别最低,为75%.决策树分析方法不仅减少了2项评价指标,而且对61个新数据矩阵的多次分析显示其分类能力非常稳定,正确率基本符合正态分布,且保持在92%左右,为3种方法中最优的分类方法.     

SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL ANALYSIS OF AGRICULTURAL WATER REQUIREMENTS IN THE GULF COAST OF THE UNITED STATES1

ABSTRACT: Competition for water resources is becoming an increasingly important issue in the southeastern U.S. The potential impacts of future precipitation and runoff estimated by a transient global climate model (HADCM2) on competing water resources in the Southeast has been conducted. Issues of agricultural management, irrigation water withdrawals, and water quality were studied over three time periods: 1974–1993, 2020–2039, and 2080–2099 in five water basins identified previously as exhibiting water-related problems. These basins, which encompass the boundary between Alabama and Mississippi, cover four important agricultural counties in Mississippi. Irrigation water requirements generated by crop growth models for corn, soybeans, and winter wheat were coupled with monthly runoff for the impacted basins estimated by the SWAT water balance model. The results of the study reveal that in the next 20–40 years water availability in the southern portions of the study area will decline as much as 10 percent during times when water requirements for agricultural production are crucial. Maintaining or expanding existing crop yields under future climate regimes may require additional irrigation water and increase competition among other uses such as domestic, industrial, recreational, and ecosystem quality.     

A HANDY DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM FOR RESERVOIR OPERATION IN TAIWAN1

A user-friendly decision support system (DSS) for long-term reservoir operation has been introduced with an eye to practical use. The system can assist reservoir managers to work out applicable rules for real-time reservoir operation. The DSS model has already been applied experimentally to the main reservoirs in Taiwan with success. In this study, Tsengwen Reservoir, the largest reservoir in Taiwan, was chosen to test the applicability of the model. The simulation results show that the DSS is not only well suited to long-term reservoir operation, but also very easily applied. A handy DSS was designed for user-friendly computer interaction with Microsoft Excel in the Windows system. Users can survey on-line reservoir operation with a browser on the World Wide Web (WWW). The uniform resource locator of the DSS is http://wrm.hre.ntou.edu.tw. . So users may easily access the DSS via the Internet.