论碳关税的福利效应

哥本哈根会议上碳关税引发热议,成为发达国家和发展中国家讨论的焦点.本文从碳关税的内涵出发,梳理了有关碳关税问题的已有研究,通过建立一个简单的局部均衡模型,对征收碳关税情况下进口国、出口国的福利以及全球福利变化进行了分析,研究得出:进口国征收碳关税能提高本国福利水平,减低出口国的福利水平,但福利变化程度取决于进口国国内碳税、出口国是否征税国内碳税、进出口国国内碳密集度水平等情况.进一步.由于温室气体排放是全球公共品,用全球福利最大化代替进口国福利最大的约束条件,探讨了最优碳关税的确定方法,认为最优碳关税取决于需求函数和供给函数的值,由出口国国内碳税与外部性的差异与进口国国内碳税与外部性差异的比值来决定.温室气体减排是国际贸易面临的新问题,碳关税仅仅拉开了以气候变化之名进行国际贸易保护的序幕,如何有效地将国际气候变化规则纳入国际贸易利益的维护中是我们未来面临的重要课题.     

不同密度螺-草结构对养殖尾水净化效果的比较研究

为减少水产养殖污染物排放,以苦草为对照组,构建环棱螺螺 草生态系统净化池塘养殖尾水,比较不同密度螺 草结构对养殖尾水的净化效果,同时探讨螺草互作对水质的影响。结果表明不同密度螺 草组合对养殖尾水均有较好的净化效果,以中密度组（螺密度50 ind/m3）的去除效果最优,25 d对Chl a、CODMn、TN、TP、NH4+ N、NO3- N和浊度的去除率分别达到98%、39.7%、44.2%、86.9%、58.2%、82.3%和91%,其中以17~25 d的营养物质去除率最高,水质由原来的Ⅳ类、Ⅴ类水提升为Ⅲ类水;环棱螺 苦草互作对水体的净化效果与苦草对照组差异不显著,表明其互利关系不明显;环棱螺 苦草组合对CODMn和TN的去除效果不是很理想,可能是由于实验中以黄土为底泥,其中的异养微生物较少引起的     

生产部门提高能源效率的宏观能耗回弹分析

提高能源效率已成为我国节能减排政策的重点,但是由于经济系统内在的调整机制作用,在宏观层面所能实现的节能效果可能不及微观技术层面能源效率提高的程度,甚至还会诱发更多的能源消耗,该现象被称为“宏观能耗回弹”效应.本文通过构建一个中国环境资源CGE模型,测算生产部门提高能源效率的宏观能耗回弹效应.结果显示,能源效率提高5％后,短期回弹效应为52.38％,节能效果仅达到技术层面预期的一半左右;长期回弹效应达178.61％,在高耗能部门竞争力提高、耗能产品出口扩张和经济增长的推动下,节能效果不但被完全抵消,总能耗还进一步增加.因此,生产部门提高能源效率在短期内确实能够降低我国能源消耗,但是由于回弹效应的存在,长期来看,在技术层面“产量相同投入更少”的努力反映到宏观经济层面则转变成“生产更多投入更多”,并且加剧了我国经济高耗能的偏好,提高能源效率所引发的产出增长和结构调整对能耗增加的刺激作用可能最终会抵消或者超过提高能源效率的节能效果.     

Mechanisms of changes in population numbers of Caucasian red deer (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Cervus elaphus maral</Emphasis>) in the northwestern Caucasus

Mechanisms of changes in the numbers of red deer in the Caucasian State Biosphere Reserve (the northwestern Caucasus) were studied from 1958 to 2004 using simulation models developed on the basis of concepts concerning the combined effect of density-dependent and density-independent factors. The results show that changes in population numbers are accounted for by larger (more numerous) local subunits, with small groups remaining relatively stable. In the periods of depression, such a mechanism provides for the maintenance of the spatial population structure.     

Beyond behaviour change: technological artefacts and characterological development

Addressing the root causes of (un)sustainability entails fundamentally changing our ways of living. This requires going beyond technology and behaviour-oriented approaches common under the umbrella of sustainable development (SD). More fundamental change is required to increase the possibility of realizing ecological and psychological well-being. Here, such change is conceptualized as ‘characterological change’. Next to SD another domain is introduced: characterological development (CD). The potential role of design-interventions in CD is explored in this article. Two studies were conducted, a literature study and experts interviews, covering the fields of Design for Sustainable Behaviour, Persuasive Technology, Practice-Oriented Design and Philosophy of Technology. The literature study shows that current research and interventions predominantly fall within the domain of SD, leaving character and related notions largely unaddressed. The expert interviews (n = 10) show a consensus that (design) research concerning the relation between technological artefacts and human character would be valuable. Research challenges and opportunities for design towards ‘living the good life within ecological means’ are discussed.     

How Aware Are Other Nations of Climate Change? Analyzing Germans’ Second-Order Climate Change Beliefs About Chinese,US American and German People

ABSTRACT

What people believe about the beliefs of other people – second-order beliefs – has been acknowledged as a key factor that shapes public support for international climate policy. However, very little is known about their origins. Based on data from an online survey (n?=?935), we analyzed how German citizens assess the climate change awareness in their own nation as compared to those of the US and China. Even if the public climate change awareness in the US and China factually differs, we found that German citizens equivalently rate both nations similar and much lower than their own, a finding which can be explained with social identity processes and “in-group”/“out-group” biases. Hierarchical regression analyses demonstrate that the attention individuals pay towards television and social media predict second-order beliefs on climate change awareness positively, while attention to print media is a negative predictor.     

南京市湿地水质对城市化影响强度的响应研究

选取28个受城市化影响程度不同的典型湿地,对其水质进行连续监测.另一方面利用GIS技术及景观生态学原理对城市湿地所在集水区不透水类型及林地类型进行景观分析,并构建城市化影响指数(UEI),进一步对区域城市化水平与湿地水质进行相关分析.结果表明:①南京仙林新市区湿地水质季节性变化表现为夏季水质较差,冬季水质相对较好,春、秋季节差别不大.②湿地水质与城市化水平有着明显的相关关系,城市化水平等级越高,湿地水质越差,其中高等城市化水平(HU)湿地TP、TN、NH4+-N、Chla等富营养化指标质量浓度分别达到0.27、1.07、0.15、17.94 mg.L-1,而低等城市化水平(LW)湿地其质量浓度则分别为0.12、0.56、0.12、4.85 mg.L-1.③城市化影响指数与湿地水质存在着阈值关系,整体来看,当UEI值超过2.2时,湿地水质恶化速度加快.     

Bioaccumulation and biological effects in the earthworm Eisenia fetida exposed to natural and depleted uranium

The accumulations of both natural (U) and depleted (DU) uranium in the earthworms (Eisenia fetida) were studied to evaluate corresponding biological effects. Concentrations of metals in the experimental soil ranged from 1.86 to 600 mg kg⁻¹. Five biological endpoints: mortality, animals’ weight increasing, lysosomal membrane stability by measuring the neutral red retention time (the NRRT), histological changes and genetic effects (Comet assay) were used to evaluate biological effects in the earthworms after 7 and 28 days of exposure. No effects have been observed in terms of mortality or weight reduction. Cytotoxic and genetic effects were identified at quite low U concentrations. For some of these endpoints, in particular for genetic effects, the dose (U concentration)-effect relationships have been found to be non-linear. The results have also shown a statistically significant higher level of impact on the earthworms exposed to natural U compared to depleted U.     

Improving inverse model fitting in trees—Anisotropy,multiplicative effects,and Bayes estimation

Model fitting for individual-based effects in forests has some problems. Because samples measuring the separate influence of each individual are rarely available, the measured value in the sample represents the influence of all surrounding individual trees. Therefore, it is helpful to build inverse models that use the spatial pattern of the variable as well as that of the source trees. For example, since seed dispersal is influenced by wind effects, a model is discussed describing anisotropic effects to ensure an unbiased estimate of the total fruit number. Further, we present a model describing the absorption of radiation by trees. In this case a multiplicative combination of individual effects yields the total effect. Our approach uses logarithmic transformations of the original data to model multiplicative combinations as sum of transformed single effects. For fitting model parameters we propose an approach based on Bayesian statistics, to ensure ecologically interpretable parameters.     

How Corridors Reduce Indigo Bunting Nest Success

Abstract:  Corridors are a popular strategy to conserve biodiversity and promote gene flow in fragmented landscapes. Corridor effectiveness has been bolstered by the fact that no empirical field studies have shown negative effects on populations or communities. I tested the hypothesis that corridors increase nest predation in connected habitat fragments relative to unconnected fragments. I evaluated this hypothesis in a large-scale experimental system of open-habitat fragments that varied in shape and connectivity. Corridors increased nest predation rates in connected fragments relative to unconnected fragments with lower edge:area ratios. Nest predation rates were similar between connected and unconnected fragments with higher edge:area ratios. These results suggest that the increase in predator activity is largely attributable to edge effects incurred through the addition of a corridor. This is the first field study to demonstrate that corridors can negatively impact animal populations occupying connected fragments.