CN算法应用于我国23次强震的预测研究

本文用CN算法研究了我国近期大陆东部和西部南北带及邻近区域共23次强震前的TIP,即强震发生概率增长时间。结果表明,18次强震发生在被判定的强震发生概率增长时间的TIP内。TIP警戒约占总研究时空域的30％,获得了较好的中期地震预测效果。表明CN算法可作为强震中期预测的手段之一。     

大空间室内火灾早期自动探测与定位研究

本文在深入研究早期火灾一般燃烧火焰在彩色影像上所呈现的光谱及运动特性基础上，首次提出利用彩色影像实时探测室内火灾的新方法，通过物方坐标与像方坐标的直接线性变换，实现了早期火灾的自动探测与空间定位，实验证明了该方法的有效性与稳健性，且具有巨大的应用前景。     

FLOOD FREQUENCY CHARACTERISTICS OF SOME ARIZONA WATERSHEDS1

The flood frequency characteristics of 18 watersheds in southeastern Arizona were studied using the log-Boughton and the log-Pearson Type 3 distribution. From the flood frequency study, a generalized envelope for Q₁₀₀ for watersheds 0.01 to 4000 mi² in area has been produced for southeastern Arizona. The generalized envelope allows comparisons to be made among the relative flood characteristics of the watersheds used in the study and provides a conservative estimate of Q₁₀₀ for ungaged watersheds in the region.     

FLOOD FREQUENCY ANALYSIS FOR SMALL WATERSHEDS IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS1

ABSTRACT: Twenty-two gaging stations were selected for developing a regional flood frequency curve for small (area less than 2 square miles) watersheds in southern Illinois. Five probability functions were compared, and the extreme value type I function was selected to develop the regional flood curve. The curve was generated with the index flood method and also another empirical method that related the function parameters to the watershed area. Estimated peak discharges with various return periods were compared with the results obtained from multiple regression analysis.     

两种定性天气预报模型的对比分析

以南京１９６５～１９９４ 年４ 月平均气温作为预报量, 选取前期５００ ｈ Ｐａ 月平均高度场相关因子, 分别建立了事件概率回归预报模型和神经网络预报模型。通过对比分析发现, 在同等条件下,由于神经网络方法能更好地反映预报量与预报因子间的非线性关系, 并能有效避免采用事件概率回归方法预报建模时, 对预报因子分级造成信息损失的缺点。因此, 其拟合和预报效果明显优于传统的概率回归预报方法     

Use of chemical cues in detection of conspecific predators and prey by newts, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Notophthalmus viridescens</Emphasis>

Summary. Detection of heterospecific predators and prey via chemical cues is well known, but only a few studies have examined the potential for such discrimination in cannibalistic systems. In newts, Notophthalmus viridescens, adults are opportunistic predators of conspecific larvae. I used a laboratory bioassay to determine whether larvae and adults distinguish between chemical stimuli from members of the different age classes. Larvae distinguished between chemical stimuli from larvae and adults by decreasing their activity only following exposure to stimuli from adults. Decreased activity is consistent with an antipredator response in many prey species, including larval newts. In contrast, adults increased their activity and increased time spent in open areas in response to stimuli from larvae, but not to stimuli from adults. Increased activity is consistent with a feeding response; adults also showed increased activity and increased time in open areas in response to chemical stimuli from familiar heterospecific prey (brine shrimp). The proximate cue that allowed the newts to distinguish between the different age classes is not associated with short-term dietary differences because all stimulus animals were fed the same prey. Stimulus strength was controlled by diluting the stimulus solutions according to the volume of the stimulus animal. Therefore, there appear to be intrinsic differences in the chemical signatures of larval and adult newts.     

深水平台施工过程自然风险定量评估

在分析现有风险理论的基础上,结合海洋施工实际,提出了一种对海洋施工自然风险进行定量评估的模型。根据目标系统各风险事件与影响因素之间存在高度非线性复杂映射的特点,提出了利用BP神经网络拟合方法,对主要风险事件发生概率进行量化的模型。针对传统的梯度下降优化算法收敛速度慢的特点,采用可避免计算Hesse矩阵的Levenberg-Marquardt算法来训练神经网络。这一模型可以模拟专家评价,并准确地按照专家的评定法则进行估算,具有一定的通用性。     

基于风险管理方法的危险源评价分级研究

以化工企业内涉及危险物质的装置、设施而构成的危险源为研究对象,在简要分析重大危险源评价分级的作用与方法的基础上,针对中小型化工企业,提出基于风险管理方法的危险源评价分级概念。通过计算危险源引发事故的概率和事故后果来确定危险源的风险值,并将其分为4个等级,指导企业制定合适的安全管理制度、使用恰当的安全技术措施,以最小化的代价确保危险源安全运行,从而提高中小型化工企业的危险源管理水平。     

基于TDLAS的火灾气体探测系统研制

将TDLAS(Tunable Diode Laser Absorption Spectroscopy)技术应用于极早期火灾气体产物的检测.对于火灾早期特征气体CO和CO2气体探测,选择中心波长为1582nm和1607nm的近红外吸收谱线,设计了一个基于TDLAS的火灾气体探测系统.对于CO和CO2气体,最低检测灵敏度分别达到2.3×10-6和22×10-6体积比浓度.该系统信号响应线性度高,长期运行稳定.