基于技术扩散的全社会能源效率空间条件收敛分析

我国各地区能源效率存在明显的差距,如何缩小地区能源效率差距成为了能源经济领域的热点问题.本文依据2000-2010年中国30省面板数据,运用空间误差条件β收敛模型分析了技术扩散对全社会能源效率收敛的影响,研究结果表明:①2000-2010年间,全社会能源效率呈现2000-2002、2002-2005和2005-2010的三阶段特征,经历上升、下降、再上升的变化过程,其中,2005-2010年提升速度最快,其经验值得借鉴;②全社会能源效率的绝对β收敛呈现由收敛至发散的三阶段变化过程;③全社会能源效率存在显著的空间滞后现象,其增长率的空间相依性不显著,但空间因素对全社会能源效率β收敛的正面影响有加强的趋势;④技术扩散从总体上使全社会能源效率的收敛速度提高1.8倍以上,且影响程度逐渐增强;⑤外商直接投资有助于提升全社会能源效率及其收敛速度;⑥不同时段的技术扩散对全社会能源效率的影响不同,且技术引进和国内技术市场技术流入对收敛的作用不显著.因此,引进外资是缩小地区间全社会能源效率差距的重要措施.     

MTBE装置潜在危险性分析及物料泄漏扩散后果模拟研究

MTBE装置处理的物料（混合C4、甲醇）具有易燃易爆性,若发生物料泄漏,将导致装置发生火灾爆炸。为了确保装置安全平稳、长周期运行,基于MTBE装置工艺技术特点,全面系统分析了装置的潜在危险性,总结出导致装置发生火灾爆炸事故的主要因素-物料泄漏;在此基础上,采用挪威DNV公司的SAFETI定量风险评价软件,建立混合C4、甲醇泄漏扩散模型,对物料泄漏导致的主要事故类型（喷射火、池火等）进行模拟,得出泄漏扩散引发火灾爆炸事故的危害范围。结果表明：该模拟研究能够反映出泄漏扩散过程和破坏范围,取得了较真实的事故影响范围曲线图,可以为设计人员更加详细了解MTBE装置发生事故的危害性及企业加强重点部位监控、制定防范措施、编制事故应急预案提供重要参考依据。     

Forecasting population trend from the scaling pattern of occupancy

Forecasting the temporal trend of a focal species, its range expansion or retraction, provides crucial information regarding population viability. To this end, we require the accumulation of temporal records which is evidently time consuming. Progress in spatial data capturing has enabled rapid and accurate assessment of species distribution across large scales. Therefore, it would be appealing to infer the temporal trends of populations from the spatial structure of their distributions. Based on a combination of models from the fields of range dynamics, occupancy scaling and spatial autocorrelation, here I present a model for forecasting the population trend solely from its spatial distribution. Numerical tests using cellular automata confirm a positive correlation, as inferred from the model, between the temporal change in species range sizes and the exponent of the power-law scaling pattern of occupancy. The model is thus recommended for rapid estimation of species range dynamics from a single snapshot of its current distribution. Further applications in biodiversity conservation could provide a swift risk assessment, especially, for endangered and invasive species.     

基于非恒定流的污染物迁移扩散随机模拟

针对目前大部分河流都受到不同程度污染的现状,研究了基于非恒定流的污染物迁移扩散随机模拟方法。通过一维非恒定流数值计算和流场模拟,得到了水库开闸放水后下游各个断面的水位、流量、流速等数据,并以此为基础,利用蒙特卡洛法对水库开闸放水前后下游典型断面的COD和NH3-N等进行污染物迁移扩散随机模拟,并将模型应用于文峪河下游。结果表明,文峪河水库开闸放水后,COD和NH3-N的污染带长度和宽度均有不同程度的减小,污染带向排污一侧岸边集中。研究成果可为解决河流污染现状与水库调度提供参考。     

填埋场内温度场下渗滤液饱和带内硫酸盐还原行为表征

填埋场内渗滤液饱和带是物质交换和生化反应的活跃区域,也是含硫恶臭的主要发生源.本研究探究了填埋场内温度场下渗滤液饱和带内硫酸盐还原行为特征,结果表明,在25～55℃逐步升温的温度场下,渗滤液饱和带内的硫酸盐还原行为逐步增强且差异显著.渗滤液饱和带纵向SO42-和DOC迁移转化规律各异但趋势相同.硫酸盐还原行为主要发生在固液交界区和固相区,且固液交界区的电子供、受体呈特定化学计量关系.电子供体是引起硫酸盐还原行为差异的主要原因.本研究揭示的温度场下渗滤液饱和带内硫酸盐还原行为可为填埋场精准除臭提供重要依据.     

丹江口水库氮磷内源释放对比

利用柱状沉积物采样器在丹江口水库采集不同点位原位柱状沉积物,通过静态培养释放实验及间隙水分子扩散模型两种方法获取沉积物-水界面N和P释放速率,分析水体N和P释放特征.结果表明,不同采样点N和P界面交换速率差异显著.静态培养条件下,5个点位NH_4~+-N和PO_4~(3-)-P释放速率分别为13. 07～24. 88 mg·(m~2·d)~(-1)和3. 06～6. 02 mg·(m~2·d)~(-1);分子扩散模型条件下,5个点位NH_4~+-N和PO_4~(3-)-P释放速率分别为2. 67～7. 25 mg·(m~2·d)~(-1)和0. 04～0. 18 mg·(m~2·d)~(-1). N和P释放速率总体呈北高南低的趋势,支流N和P最低释放速率分别是主库区最高释放速率的1. 48和1. 57倍.两种方法均表明郭家山支流N和P的释放速率最高,具有较大内源N和P释放风险.比较两种方法发现,利用Fick定律计算出的界面N和P释放速率明显小于柱样模拟方法得出的结果,N和P的R/F值分别为3. 43～4. 98和29. 67～72. 88,这表明用分子扩散模型法进行内源释放速率估算时,偏离真实情况较大,而原柱样静态模拟实验则较贴近真实情况.     

Migration of colloids in discretely fractured porous media: effect of colloidal matrix diffusion

Numerical simulations of colloid transport in discretely fractured porous media were performed to investigate the importance of matrix diffusion of colloids as well as the filtration and remobilization of colloidal particles in both the fractures and porous matrix. To achieve this objective a finite element numerical code entitled COLDIFF was developed. The processes that COLDIFF takes into account include advective-dispersive transport of colloids, filtration and remobilization of colloidal particles in both fractures and porous matrix, and diffusive interactions of colloids between the fractures and porous matrix. Three sets of simulations were conducted to examine the importance of parameters and processes controlling colloid migration. First, a sensitivity analysis was performed using a porous block containing a single fracture to determine the relative importance of various phenomenological coefficients on colloid transport. The primary result of the analysis showed that the porosity of the matrix and the process of colloid filtration in fractures play important roles in controlling colloid migration. Second, simulations were performed to replicate and examine the results of a laboratory column study using a fractured shale saprolite. Results of this analysis showed that the filtration of colloidal particles in the porous matrix can greatly affect the tailing of colloid concentrations after the colloid source was removed. Finally, field-scale simulations were performed to examine the effect of matrix porosity, fracture filtration and fracture remobilization on long-term colloid concentration and migration distance. The field scale simulations indicated that matrix diffusion and fracture filtration can significantly reduce colloid migration distance. Results of all three analyses indicated that in environments where porosity is relatively high and colloidal particles are small enough to diffuse out of fractures, the characteristics of the porous matrix that affect colloid transport become more important than those of the fracture network. Because the properties of the fracture network tend to have greater uncertainty due to difficulties in their measurement relative to those of the porous matrix, prediction uncertainties associated with colloid transport in discretely fractured porous media may be reduced.     

城市污水排江工程模型试验的研究

对城市污水排江问题进行了模拟试验,通过对水力模型不同试验工况中改变喷嘴个数、射流速度、射流角度和上升管间距条件下的试验结果分析,结合武汉市污水排江工程问题,确定了黄浦路、平湖门尾水排放中的近区多喷口形式的最佳工程参数,实践证明效果良好。     

液固比对含重金属水泥熟料制品中重金属释放的影响

通过模拟煅烧试验制取水泥熟料,参照JGJ 55-2000（《普通混凝土配比设计规程》）制取混凝土样品,参考SR003.1和NEN 7375浸出试验,分别研究液固比对粒状及块状混凝土样品中重金属（Cr、Ni和As）释放的影响。结果表明,在不同液固比条件下粒状混凝土中的重金属浸出浓度为Cr>Ni>As,Cr、As浸出浓度基本保持不变,分别为2 500 μg/L左右和5～6 μg/L,Ni在液固比（L∶S）<6时,浸出浓度随着液固比的增加而降低,在L∶S>6时,浸出浓度较稳定,为35.7～41.5 μg/L;浸出量均随着液固比的增加而增大。液固比（L∶S）<10时,块状混凝土中重金属累积释放量及扩散系数均随液固比的增加而增大,当L∶S>10时两者基本保持不变。     

哈尔滨冬季大气污染及逆温对污染物扩散影响

利用实际监测资料研究分析了哈尔滨市2000-2003年大气污染物的变化状况,和冬季重度污染发生的气候条件,特别指出了逆温持续性、强度、和层厚对大气污染扩散影响的正比关系,即逆温日数越多,超标污染日越多,逆温强度越大,污染越重的规律.