利用信息扩散模式对安徽及华东地区地震的风险分析

本文利用信息扩散模式,分别从年地震频次和年最大震级两个方面对安徽及华东地区的地震风险进行评估.结果显示:安徽地区ML≥3.0地震,年频次4次以上,约两年一遇;年发生ML≥3.9地震,则3年可能遇一次.而华东地区ML≥4.0地震,年频次4次以上,大约3年一遇;年发生ML≥4.9的地震,则可能2年遇一次.     

大气气溶胶中有机成分研究进展

有机物是大气气溶胶的重要组成部分,尤其是在细颗粒中,可占其干重的10%～70%。由于有机气溶胶的健康及气候效应,有机物的组成、源分布、颗粒行为等的研究越来越受到人们的重视。其中,有机物成分的鉴别和定量已成为近年来的研究热点。在分析中,就目前有机气溶胶的采样、有机成分提取、分离及定性、定量分析方法进行了综述,并比较了各种方法的优缺点。     

新型固体进样汞镉测定仪测定固体样品中的镉

使用由北京吉天仪器有限公司开发的新型固体进样汞镉测定仪(DCMA-200),对采集的土壤、大气颗粒物和固体废物样品中镉的浓度进行分析。在测试过程中,选择9种标准土(GBW07407、GBW07402、GBW07410、GBW07425、GBW07426、GBW07428、GBW07419、GBW07309和GBW07418),研究了进样量对测定的影响,并分别在1.0~10.0 mg称量范围内建立了标准曲线(R ²> 0.93)。当固体样品进样量为10.0 mg时,镉的检出限为0.004 7 mg/kg,测定下限为0.016 mg/kg。利用7种标准土(GBW07418和GBW07419除外)绘制的标准曲线,测得的5种实际土壤中镉的浓度与利用电感耦合等离子体质谱仪(ICP-MS)测得的结果较一致。但与ICP-MS测得的结果相比,利用该固体进样汞镉测定仪测得的大气颗粒物中镉的浓度明显偏高,而危险废物中镉的浓度偏低。因此,建议在检测某地区的固体样品时,尽可能选择该区域和该类固体样品的标准品来设计标准曲线,从而提高测试结果的准确性。     

Multi-stage sampling for large scale natural resources surveys: a case study of rice and waterfowl

Large-scale sample surveys to estimate abundance and distribution of organisms and their habitats are increasingly important in ecological studies. Multi-stage sampling (MSS) is especially suited to large-scale surveys because of the natural clustering of resources. To illustrate an application, we: (1) designed a stratified MSS to estimate late autumn abundance (kg/ha) of rice seeds in harvested fields as food for waterfowl wintering in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley (MAV); (2) investigated options for improving the MSS design; and (3) compared statistical and cost efficiency of MSS to simulated simple random sampling (SRS). During 2000-2002, we sampled 25-35 landowners per year, 1 or 2 fields per landowner per year, and measured seed mass in 10 soil cores collected within each field. Analysis of variance components and costs for each stage of the survey design indicated that collecting 10 soil cores per field was near the optimum of 11-15, whereas sampling >1 field per landowner provided few benefits because data from fields within landowners were highly correlated. Coefficients of variation (CV) of annual estimates of rice abundance ranged from 0.23 to 0.31 and were limited by variation among landowners and the number of landowners sampled. Design effects representing the statistical efficiency of MSS relative to SRS ranged from 3.2 to 9.0, and simulations indicated SRS would cost, on average, 1.4 times more than MSS because clustering of sample units in MSS decreased travel costs. We recommend MSS as a potential sampling strategy for large-scale natural resource surveys and specifically for future surveys of the availability of rice as food for waterfowl in the MAV and similar areas.     

连续采样与五日法采样效果及费用的对比分析

通过对连续采样与五日法采样五种方法监测结果及所需费用的比较，得出连续采样方法监测结果更具有代表性，合理性，一次性投资大，但运行费用并不高的结论。     

A soil sampling intercomparison exercise for the ALMERA network

Soil sampling and analysis for radionuclides after an accidental or routine release is a key factor for the dose calculation to members of the public, and for the establishment of possible countermeasures. The IAEA organized for selected laboratories of the ALMERA (Analytical Laboratories for the Measurement of Environmental Radioactivity) network a Soil Sampling Intercomparison Exercise (IAEA/SIE/01) with the objective of comparing soil sampling procedures used by different laboratories. The ALMERA network is a world-wide network of analytical laboratories located in IAEA member states capable of providing reliable and timely analysis of environmental samples in the event of an accidental or intentional release of radioactivity. Ten ALMERA laboratories were selected to participate in the sampling exercise. The soil sampling intercomparison exercise took place in November 2005 in an agricultural area qualified as a “reference site”, aimed at assessing the uncertainties associated with soil sampling in agricultural, semi-natural, urban and contaminated environments and suitable for performing sampling intercomparison. In this paper, the laboratories sampling performance were evaluated.     

Impact of leakage location and downwind storage tank on the gas dispersion in a typical chemical tank storage area

Toxic gas leakage in a tank area can have catastrophic consequences. Storage tank leakage location (particularly for high leakage) and downwind storage tanks potentially influence gas diffusion in tank areas. In this study, we developed a numerical and experimental method to investigate the impact of a high leakage location and downwind storage tank on gas diffusion based on three (1.05H, 0.90H, and 0.77H, H was the tank height, 22m) leakage field experiments on the leeward side of storage tank, which have been not conducted before. The experiments revealed an unexpected phenomenon: the maximum ground concentration first decreased and then increased with increasing leakage height. The simulations illustrated that the differences in micrometeorological conditions caused the maximum ground concentration of gas emitted from the roof to be higher than that emitted from the tank wall near the storage tank height. The downwind storage tank 1) had little influence on the entire diffusion direction but altered the local diffusion pattern; 2) reduced the maximum ground concentration (∼18.7%) and the distance from the emission source (approximately a storage tank diameter); and 3) had strong influences on the concentration, velocity, turbulence, and pressure on the leeward side. The concentration negatively correlated with the velocity, pressure, and turbulence in the middle of the two storage tanks on wind centerline. Our results can improve understanding of gas dispersion in tank areas and provide references for mitigating loss and protecting lives during emergency response processes.     

泄漏孔形状对液化石油气泄漏扩散的影响

基于液化石油气的特点,建立了有限空间内部发生泄漏扩散的物理模型,模拟了液化石油气泄漏扩散的过程,通过模拟结果分析其扩散规律,并对比当泄漏孔形状分别为正方形、圆形、三角形时液化石油气扩散过程的变化以及对所形成的的爆炸危险区域的影响。监测点1（0.8,0.3,0）,点2（2.4,0.3,2.5）,点3（0,0.3,1.5）,点4（2,0.3,3）的浓度变化,找出报警器的最佳安放位置。结果表明:泄漏时间相同,丙烷的扩散范围从大到小依次为三角形孔口、圆形孔口、正方形孔口,爆炸危险区域也与泄漏孔形状有关,三角形孔口的危险区域范围最广,其次是圆形泄漏孔,正方形泄漏孔的范围最小,点1处的丙烷浓度增长幅度较大,浓度较高,可以更早达到报警浓度。