Automated conservation assessment of the orchid family with deep learning

International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List assessments are essential for prioritizing conservation needs but are resource intensive and therefore available only for a fraction of global species richness. Automated conservation assessments based on digitally available geographic occurrence records can be a rapid alternative, but it is unclear how reliable these assessments are. We conducted automated conservation assessments for 13,910 species (47.3% of the known species in the family) of the diverse and globally distributed orchid family (Orchidaceae), for which most species (13,049) were previously unassessed by IUCN. We used a novel method based on a deep neural network (IUC-NN). We identified 4,342 orchid species (31.2% of the evaluated species) as possibly threatened with extinction (equivalent to IUCN categories critically endangered [CR], endangered [EN], or vulnerable [VU]) and Madagascar, East Africa, Southeast Asia, and several oceanic islands as priority areas for orchid conservation. Orchidaceae provided a model with which to test the sensitivity of automated assessment methods to problems with data availability, data quality, and geographic sampling bias. The IUC-NN identified possibly threatened species with an accuracy of 84.3%, with significantly lower geographic evaluation bias relative to the IUCN Red List and was robust even when data availability was low and there were geographic errors in the input data. Overall, our results demonstrate that automated assessments have an important role to play in identifying species at the greatest risk of extinction.     

铁硫改性生物炭去除水中的磷

磷元素向天然水体中的过度排放引发了严重环境问题.以吸附剂为技术核心的吸附法作为一种有效的除磷方法而受到研究人员的关注.本研究中,以壳聚糖、硫酸亚铁和硫化钠为改性剂研发的污泥生物炭对水中磷的去除效果良好.批次实验表明在最佳原料配比下,298 K时材料可吸附49.32 mg·g^-1的磷.此外,实验模拟表明材料对磷的吸附符合伪二级动力学和Langmuir模型;吸附速率主要受到孔隙内部三维扩散影响;吸附方式认定为物理化学吸附;吸附机制可概括为静电吸引、孔隙填充、表面化学沉淀、氢键结合和配位体效应.本研究证明了合成的材料是一种新型的高效除磷吸附剂,为吸附剂设计以及吸附机制的探讨提供借鉴.     

基于GIS的危险化学气体泄漏事故应急响应研究

为了研究危险化学气体泄漏事故扩散过程以及受灾人员疏散规划问题。提出以GIS为“连接器”,将危险化学气体的泄漏和扩散过程模拟、气体扩散风险分析和最优疏散方案生成3个过程进行集成,实现泄漏事故的综合应急响应。研究结果显示:方法能针对各类泄漏事故模拟气体的动态扩散过程,并生成受灾人员疏散规划方案,有助于应急处置机构及时决策,进而减少生命财产的损失。     

大鹏湾环境容量研究Ⅰ:自净能力模拟分析

在估算大鹏湾污染源强及统计海水污染物浓度的基础上,采用三维水动力模型及污染物扩散模型,模拟了大鹏湾的海水交换及污染物扩散过程,分析了大鹏湾海水交换与生化降解对自净能力的贡献.结果表明,大鹏湾潮差小,约为1m,潮流弱,污染物难于向湾外扩散,其物理自净能力差,湾内海水自净主要取决于生化降解.在吐露港海区与沙头角海区,污染排放较大,水深较小,海水难于交换,容易受到污染.     

内河非溶解性危险化学品泄漏扩散过程影响因素

针对内河中非挥发性危险化学品（危化品）运输船舶的泄漏扩散问题,建立了一种通用数值模拟方法,研究了内河非溶解性危化品泄漏扩散过程的影响因素。结果表明：危化品的密度和黏度对内河危化品泄漏扩散过程的影响相对较小,而水流速率和危化品泄漏速率对危化品泄漏扩散过程的影响较大;水流速率对危化品泄漏扩散过程的影响主要表现在泄漏扩散范围（尤其是泄漏区域长度）方面,而危化品泄漏速率的影响主要表现在泄漏区域宽度、微团数量以及最大微团面积方面。建议应针对丰水期危化品大泄漏量的情况展开监管,并将其作为内河危化品泄漏应急工作的重点。     

Conservation decision-making in large state spaces

When looking for the best course of management decisions to efficiently conserve metapopulation systems, a classic approach in the ecology literature is to model the optimisation problem as a Markov decision process and find an optimal control policy using exact stochastic dynamic programming techniques. Stochastic dynamic programming is an iterative procedure that seeks to optimise a value function at each timestep by evaluating the benefits of each of the actions in each state of the system defined in the Markov decision process.Although stochastic dynamic programming methods provide an optimal solution to conservation management questions in a stochastic world, their applicability in metapopulation problems has always been limited by the so-called curse of dimensionality. The curse of dimensionality is the problem that adding new state variables inevitably results in much larger (often exponential) increases in the size of the state space, which can make solving superficially small problems impossible. The high computational requirements of stochastic dynamic programming methods mean that only simple metapopulation management problems can be analysed. In this paper we overcome the complexity burden of exact stochastic dynamic programming methods and present the benefits of an on-line sparse sampling algorithm proposed by Kearns, Mansour and Ng (2002). The algorithm is particularly attractive for problems with large state spaces as the running time is independent of the size of the state space of the problem. This appealing improvement is achieved at a cost: the solutions found are no longer guaranteed to be optimal.We apply the algorithm of Kearns et al. (2002) to a hypothetical fish metapopulation problem where the management objective is to maximise the number of occupied patches over the management time horizon. Our model has multiple management options to combat the threats of water abstraction and waterhole sedimentation. We compare the performance of the optimal solution to the results of the on-line sparse sampling algorithm for a simple 3-waterhole case. We find that three look-ahead steps minimises the error between the optimal solution and the approximation algorithm. This paper introduces a new algorithm to conservation management that provides a way to avoid the effects of the curse of dimensionality. The work has the potential to allow us to approximate solutions to much more complex metapopulation management problems in the future.     

搅拌子吸附-热脱附-气相色谱-质谱法分析北京大气中33种多氯联苯

用包覆聚二甲基硅氧烷(PDMS)吸附层的搅拌子作被动大气采样器,建立了搅拌子吸附-热脱附-气相色谱-质谱法(SBSE-TD-GC-MS)分析大气中多氯联苯(PCBs)的方法。优化后的热脱附温度为280℃,热脱附时间为6 min,聚焦冷阱的温度为-40℃,33种PCB单体的热脱附残留比例低于7%。验证了方法的线性、精密度和重复性。标准曲线5个点线性关系良好,33种PCB单体的相关系数r>0.998。方法精密度验证的相对标准偏差(RSD)为0.79%~20.2%(n=8),日内重复性实验的RSD为0.43%~29.8%(n=10),日间重复性实验的RSD为3.20%~29.6%(n=20),方法检出限(LOD)为0.01~2.51 pg,回收率为98%±18%。将建立的方法用于北京大气中PCBs的分析。检出8种PCB单体,质量为2.94~129 pg。在32 d的采样周期内PCB-52、PCB-123、PCB-155一直处于线性吸附阶段,而PCB-1和PCB-3经过了线性吸附阶段、曲线吸附阶段和平衡阶段。研究结果表明,SBSE-TD-GC-MS可以用于大气中PCBs的样品采集和快速分析。     

Ranked set sample design for environmental investigations

Ranked set sampling can provide an efficient basis for estimating parameters of environmental variables, particularly when sampling costs are intrinsically high. Various ranked set estimators are considered for the population mean and contrasted in terms of their efficiencies and useful- ness, with special concern for sample design considerations. Specifically, we consider the effects of the form of the underlying random variable, optimisation of efficiency and how to allocate sampling effort for best effect (e.g. one large sample or several smaller ones of the same total size). The various prospects are explored for two important positively skew random variables (lognormal and extreme value) and explicit results are given for these cases. Whilst it turns out that the best approach is to use the largest possible single sample and the optimal ranked set best linear estimator (ranked set BLUE), we find some interesting qualitatively different conclusions for the two skew distributions     

湖泊沉积物-水界面微量重金属扩散作用及其水质影响研究

通过对云南泸沽湖、洱海沉积物孔隙水微量重金属剖面特征及界面扩散通量的研究,定量评估了微量重金属界面扩散作用对上覆湖水水质的影响,并探讨了春季节性变化规律,结果表明,孔隙水微量重金属浓度面均呈典型的峰形分布,界面氧化还原状况的变化是影响这种分布的主要因素;微量重金属界面扩散通量在夏季明显大于冬季,深水区大于浅水区;这种擅长 用作用对湖水中微量重金属含量的变化影响较大,尤其对深度较小,水体寄宿时间长、     

易燃、易爆(有毒)重大危险源(罐区)泄漏物扩散模型及数值模拟

在研究易燃、易爆、有毒的重大危险源和泄漏物扩散模型的基础上,建立了易燃、易爆、有毒物三维数值模拟程序,得到了复杂地形条件下关键点的有害物浓度历史和有害物的时空分布