Spatial variability of sydney air quality by cumulative semivariogram

This paper establishes that an isotropic spatial correlation function in the form of a modified Bessel function of the second kind, first order, can be used to model the spatial variability of a pollution concentration field over a sufficiently long period of time in which the variability due to meteorological factors has been smoothed out. The corresponding cumulative semivariogram is derived and fitted by nonlinear least-squares to monthly averaged ozone data at 18 monitoring stations of the Sydney region. The good fit of the model indicates that the Sydney airshed has homogeneous and isotropic subregions whose radius of influence is about 17 km. The Bessel function form of the spatial correlation has a physical meaning as it is derived from the diffusion equation; hence, it is expected that the model can be used, in general, to represent the spatial variability of a smoothed homogeneous and isotropic concentration field.     

长江流域发展对长江口水域功能开发的影响

长江口水域是上海市重要水源地,同时兼具工农业取水、通航、纳污、围垦等多种功能,长江口已成为上海市建设世界级城市的重要支撑之一,其水资源的开发、利用和保护已成为人们关注的焦点。重点分析了随着长江流域社会经济的发展,流域水旱灾害、水土流失、污染物排放、大型水利工程建设等因素对长江口水域功能的影响,提出长江口现状过境水资源量为9335×108m3/a,上海市最大可开发利用的资源量约在3680×108m3/a;长江口水域水质基本符合II类标准,但近岸水域的污染不容忽视;长江口咸潮入侵成为长江口水资源利用的最大障碍,每年长江口的氯化物超标天数在45d;长江流域的来沙量有减少的趋势,多年平均输沙量为4.35×108t。最后,就河口水域功能开发提出了相关对策建议。     

基于聚类分析和判别分析的河流水质空间分析方法

水质改变受到时间、气候、人为等多方面的因素影响,形成的检测数据也十分复杂而多样,要客观的对其进行分析与监控就需要对其进行分类处理,利用聚类与判别方式将其归类并突出主要因素,这样才能在水质分析中获得较好的效果。     

Assessing pre/post-weaning neurobehavioral development for perinatal exposure to low doses of methylmercury

Fetuses and neonates are known to be high-risk groups for Methylmercury(MeHg)exposure.MeHg can be transferred to the fetus through the placenta and to newborn offspring through breast milk.The aim of the present study was to investigate the neurotoxic effects of low doses of MeHg(1 and 5 μg/m L in drinking water) administration,from gestational day 1 to postnatal day(PND) 21,on the neurobehavioral development of rats.The results showed that the no-observed-effect level of MeHg is somewhere in the range of 1–4 μg/mL.Neurobehavioral development analysis revealed a delayed appearance of cliff drop and negative geotaxis reflexes in the 5 μg/mL MeHg exposure group.Developmental exposure to MeHg affected locomotor activity functions for the females,but not for the males,implying that the female pups were more vulnerable than the male pups.All pups exposed to 5 μg/mL of MeHg showed a significant deficit in motor coordination in the rotarod test compared with controls,and the highest accumulated concentrations of Hg were found in the cerebellum,followed by the hippocampus and cerebral cortex,indicating that the cerebellum is a possible target for MeHg toxicity.We demonstrated adverse effects of developmental exposure to MeHg associated with tissue concentrations very close to the current human body burden of this persistent and bioaccumulative compound.     

Pitfalls in the application of utility functions to the valuation of human life

Safety strategies in the process and other industries depend ultimately on how much the owners and operators decide should be spent on protection systems to protect workers and the public from potential plant hazards. An important input to decisions of this sort is the value of life, which needs to be assessed in a valid manner so that safety decisions can be made properly. A key reference point for decisions on safety investment decisions in the UK is a 1999 study on the “value of a prevented fatality” (VPF), which employs a two-injury chained model that has been shown previously by the present authors to possess internal inconsistencies. The 1999 study made extensive use of utility functions to interpret survey data, and it is this feature that is explored in this paper. It will be explained here how different forms of utility function of the Exponential family can produce the same figure for an intermediate parameter in the calculation of the VPF from the two-injury chained model. Exponential utility functions are, however, unlikely to provide a realistic representation if their calculated risk-aversions need to be negative or zero in order to match survey data, which would imply an incautious attitude amongst those taking decisions on safety. The use of an incompletely specified wealth threshold in the utility modelling is explored in the light of a proposal by the authors of the 1999 study that a second utility function can be used to determine the individual's utility when his wealth lies below the threshold, which constitutes the lower limit of validity of the first utility function. The proposition is shown to be untenable. The results presented in this paper raise further concerns about the lack of validity of the 1999 study on which the UK VPF is based and hence on the safety decisions that have been made in consequence.     

Current Near‐to‐Nature Forest Management Effects on Functional Trait Composition of Saproxylic Beetles in Beech Forests

With the aim of wood production with negligible negative effects on biodiversity and ecosystem processes, a silvicultural practice of selective logging with natural regeneration has been implemented in European beech forests (Fagus sylvatica) during the last decades. Despite this near‐to‐nature strategy, species richness of various taxa is lower in these forests than in unmanaged forests. To develop guidelines to minimize the fundamental weaknesses in the current practice, we linked functional traits of saproxylic beetle species to ecosystem characteristics. We used continental‐scale data from 8 European countries and regional‐scale data from a large forest in southern Germany and forest‐stand variables that represented a gradient of intensity of forest use to evaluate the effect of current near‐to‐nature management strategies on the functional diversity of saproxylic beetles. Forest‐stand variables did not have a statistically significant effect on overall functional diversity, but they did significantly affect community mean and diversity of single functional traits. As the amount of dead wood increased the composition of assemblages shifted toward dominance of larger species and species preferring dead wood of large diameter and in advanced stages of decay. The mean amount of dead wood across plots in which most species occurred was from 20 to 60 m³/ha. Species occurring in plots with mean dead wood >60 m³/ha were consistently those inhabiting dead wood of large diameter and in advanced stages of decay. On the basis of our results, to make current wood‐production practices in beech forests throughout Europe more conservation oriented (i.e., promoting biodiversity and ecosystem functioning), we recommend increasing the amount of dead wood to >20 m³/ha; not removing dead wood of large diameter (50 cm) and allowing more dead wood in advanced stages of decomposition to develop; and designating strict forest reserves, with their exceptionally high amounts of dead wood, that would serve as refuges for and sources of saproxylic habitat specialists. Efectos Actuales del Manejo Casi Natural de Bosques sobre la Composición de Atributos Funcionales de Escarabajos Saproxílicos en Bosques de Haya     

山西省“三生”功能协同/权衡关系分析

为探究生产—生活—生态（“三生”）功能协调情况,基于综合评价模型和力学平衡模型,选用2005年、2010年和2018年土地利用类型和统计数据,测度山西省“三生”功能时空演变及协同/权衡关系特征。结果表明:（1）2005—2018年“三生”功能时空分异特征明显,生产功能为下降态势,呈现出“平原高,山区低”的分布格局;生活功能持续上升,空间分布与生产功能相似;生态功能呈上升状态,但需注意恶化倾向,空间格局稳定。（2）研究期间,“三生”功能协同性显著提升且趋势合理,空间分布与生产、生活功能趋同。（3）依据“三生”功能协调度偏离情况,划分功能主导区和提升区,明确各县域功能特征。研究结果可为国土空间规划提供依据。     

广播媒介在灾害救助中的积极作用——基于汶川等十县市的调查结果

灾害事件发生后,信息的有效传播对于灾害救助意义重大.灾害事件往往伴随电力、交通、通讯的中断,导致许多传播媒介无法发挥作用,而广播媒介因其较强的抗灾害能力在灾害信息传播过程中保持了相对畅通,成为灾害救助的重要媒介.本文介绍了广播媒介在自我救助、专业救助和社会救助中的不同作用,进一步探讨了几种常见的传播媒介的抗灾害能力,并针对广播媒介在灾害救助中存在的问题提出了一些建议.     

河套平原湖泊陈普海子沉积物粒度与元素分析

通过对河套地区不同类型沉积物进行粒度和元素分析，根据区域陈普海子沉积岩芯的年代和环境代用指标结果，借助于判别分析技术，结合历史文献资料，揭示区域近300a来两个典型时段的环境变化.结果表明，约1850a受黄河河道变迁引起的洪水活动影响，陈普海子岩芯55~50cm（CP1）沉积物表现为灰黄色黏土层，其粒度参数、分布曲线与黄河岸边缓流沉积物相似，两者的中值粒径和众数数值分别为3.8，7.7μm和4.4，5.0μm，元素及其比值K/Ti、Al/Ti和K/Sr（数值分别为7.1、21.5、102.7和6.2、20.7、87.8）的得分散点分布在判别得分散点图的同一区域，与其它类型沉积物的分布区域明显分离，元素比值K/Ti、Al/Ti和K/Sr可作为湖泊沉积指示洪水活动的环境代用指标；自1995年以来，由于区域人类活动，沙荒土地大规模开垦，致使风沙活动增强，岩芯15cm以上（CP2）沉积物粒度参数、分布曲线与风积物相似，两者的中值粒径和众数数值分别为20.1，19.6 μm和41.6，45.7 μm，元素的得分散点分布在判别得分散点图的同一区域，研究结果与文献记录具有较好的一致性.     

Infant and Under-five Mortality in Bangladesh: Discriminant Analysis

Bangladesh is on target for achieving the Millennium Development Goal 4 relating to infant and under-five mortality because of very rapid reduction in mortality in recent years. But this rate of reduction may be difficult to sustain and may hamper the achievement of Millennium Development Goal 4. Therefore,the main objective of this paper is to discuss and compare the different covariates of infant and under-five mortality in the context of overall country, urban and rural levels of Bangladesh using discriminant analysis. For this, the data are taken from Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey, 2004. In discriminant analysis,the stepwise procedure has been picked up and only the significant variables are ranked according to the rank of Wilk's Lambda values. The canonical discriminant function coefficients (unstandardized and standardized) for the predictor variables have also been calculated. Both the results show that breastfeeding is the most important variable in discriminating the two groups of mothers,i.e., mothers experiencing to infant mortality or not and mothers experiencing to under-five mortality or not. The related results of discriminant function also indicate that the discriminant function is statistically significant and discriminates well. Therefore, improvements in the health system are essential for promoting the breastfeeding practices (both inclusive and exclusive), which may be the effective strategies to reach families and communities with targeted messages and information.