EVALUATION OF PROBABILITY DENSITY FUNCTIONS IN PRECIPITATION MODELS FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST1

ABSTRACT: Recent work has found that a one-parameter Weibull model of wet day precipitation amount based on the Weibull distribution provides a better fit to historical daily precipitation data for eastern U.S. sites than other one-parameter models. The general two-parameter Weibull distribution was compared in this study to other widely used distributions for describing the distribution of daily precipitation event sizes at 99 sites from the U.S. Pacific Northwest. Surprisingly little performance was sacrificed by reducing the two-parameter Weibull to a single-parameter distribution. Advantages of the single-parameter model included requiring only the mean wet day precipitation amount for calibration, invertibility for simulation purposes, and ease of analytical manipulation. The fit of the single-parameter Weibull to the 99 stations included in this study was significantly better than other single-parameter models tested, and performed as well as the widely endorsed, more cumbersome, two-parameter gamma model. Both the one-and two-parameter Weibull distributions are shown to have b-moments that are consistent with historical precipitation data, while the ratio of b-skew and b-variance in the gamma model is inconsistent with the historical recerd by this measure. In addition, it was found that the two-parameter gamma distribution was better fit using the method of moments estimators than maximum likelihood estimates. These findings suggested that the distribution in precipitation among sites in the Pacific Northwest with dramatically different settings are nearly identical if expressed in proportion to the mean site event size.     

MODELING FLOOD DAMAGE: CASE OF TOKAI FLOOD 20001

ABSTRACT: In conventional flood damage reduction studies, flood damage is usually estimated with a damage function according to the depth of inundation. However, this method may not reflect the conditions of each family residing in the floodplain because it ignores not only the distribution of flood damage but also the effect of building characteristics and residents' preparedness. This paper uses data from a questionnaire based survey (N= 3,036) conducted 17 months after the Tokai Flood of 2000 that caused disastrous losses to household properties. It provides a conceptual “doughnut structure” model of flood damage to houses and house contents and a mathematical basis for models to explore the determinants of flood damage. Besides the inundation depth, house type significantly affects both the house structural and content damage probabilities, while house ownership and house structure affect house damage probability but not house content damage probability at a given depth. Inundation depth, residing period, and household income significantly affect both house and content damage values. In addition, house ownership has a significant impact on the house damage value, while house structure has an impact on content damage value.     

Prospects for Conserving and Restoring the Properties and Ecological Functions of Arable Soils

Changes in the properties and ecological functions of soils under the effect of farming are considered. Evidence is provided that optimization of the structure of land inventory with regard to environmental conditions in a concrete region is a promising approach to the conservation and restoration of disturbed and degraded soils. A classification of soils with respect to their arability is proposed as a theoretical basis for reorganizing agricultural land use.     

基于职能控制下的环境保护和管理措施

当今世界面临的环境危机使人类认识到人必须和环境和谐发展。环境保护人人有责,企业应做好环境保护的事前和过程的控制,要用新的理论技术充实环保管理的内容,强化环境控制职能。本文用环境工程、系统工程、控制论的原理和方法探讨研究企业在环保管理中如何强化控制职能的理论和方法,为企业在"环境和发展"所面临的挑战中采取相应的管理对策抛砖引玉。     

基于不同指标无量纲化方法的岩爆预测模型优选

为研究不同指标无量纲化方法对岩爆等级预测模型精度的影响,提高岩爆预测准确率,选取应力系数、脆性系数和弹性能量指数作为预测指标。基于104组岩爆实例大样本数据,采用统一极差处理法、差异化极差处理法、平均化处理法和归一化处理法4种指标无量钢化方法,对预测指标的原始数据进行处理,建立不同的岩爆预测距离判别模型并进行工程实例应用。研究结果表明:基于平均化处理法的岩爆预测模型的回判准确率高达97.1%;对不同矿山、隧道和水电站的6个工程实例的预测结果符合实际情况,说明其是一种准确率高、方便实用的岩爆预测模型。     

AVGWLF‐Based Estimation of Nonpoint Source Nitrogen Loads Generated Within Long Island Sound Subwatersheds1

Abstract: The Generalized Watershed Loading Functions (GWLF) model and its ArcView interface (AVGWLF) were used to estimate and examine the components of the total nitrogen (TN) nonpoint source (NPS) load generated within New York and Connecticut (CT) watersheds surrounding Long Island Sound (LIS, the Sound). The majority of data used as model inputs were generally available from online sources, and the work involved an overall calibration to streamflow and TN data in accordance with generic guidelines recommended in the GWLF manual. The GWLF model performance for three calibration and two validation watersheds in CT was compared with results of a detailed model, Hydrological Simulation Program in Fortran, developed in a previous study. The results of the application illustrate the usefulness of the relatively simpler, less parameter‐intensive GWLF model in performing exploratory loading analysis in preparation for adaptive nutrient management in the LIS watersheds. The presented methodology is valuable for identification of priority watersheds for NPS pollution reduction and also for planning‐level evaluation of best management practices to achieve the desired reductions. It is estimated that ground‐water base flow may be the largest pathway for NPS TN to the Sound, contributing about 54% of the total NPS TN load, a finding with significant implications for LIS total maximum daily load reduction scenarios. In addition to ground water, septic systems are estimated to contribute about 17% of the total load, with the remaining TN load being mostly runoff from urban (17%), agricultural (5%), and low impact (e.g., forest) areas (6%).     

基于栅格的土地利用功能变化监测方法

选择黑龙江省哈大齐地区(哈尔滨-大庆-齐齐哈尔)为研究区,把土地利用功能划分为资源功能、生态功能、经济功能和社会功能四项主功能,并进一步细分成资源供给、景观维护、生态防护、环境净化、经济增长、人口承载、居住生活和文化休闲等8项子功能;然后从土地利用、生态环境和社会经济三方面选择指标,研究了1976年和2005年两个时段各指标的空间化方法,并采用层次分析法进行了各土地利用功能的识别, 在千米格网尺度上对土地利用功能变化热点进行了监测,采用相关分析研究了不同土地利用功能之间的消涨关系,实现了土地利用功能的空间化、定量化和动态化研究,其结果可为土地利用功能的协调配置提供参考。     

Operational risk assessment: A case of the Bhopal disaster

Accidental releases of hazardous chemicals from process facilities can cause catastrophic consequences. The Bhopal disaster resulting from a combination of inherently unsafe designs and poorly managed operations is a well-known case. Effective risk modeling approaches that provide early warnings are helpful to prevent and control such rare but catastrophic events. Probability estimation of these events is a constant challenge due to the scarcity of directly relevant data. Therefore, precursor-based methods that adopt the Bayesian theorem to update prior judgments on event probabilities using empirical data have been proposed. The updated probabilities are then integrated with consequences of varying severity to produce the risk profile.This paper proposes an operational risk assessment framework, in which a precursor-based Bayesian network approach is used for probability estimation, and loss functions are applied for consequence assessment. The estimated risk profile can be updated continuously given real-time operational data. As process facilities operate, this method integrates a failure-updating mechanism with potential consequences to generate a real-time operational risk profile. The real time risk profile is valuable in activating accident prevention and control strategies. The approach is applied to the Bhopal accident to demonstrate its applicability and effectiveness.     

中小型水电站库区富营养化变化趋势探析——以红岩水电站为例

流域梯级电站开发日益使河流湖库化,特别是建在流域下游的水库尤为明显,湖库富营养化已成为水库的主要生态环境问题,备受中外学者关注。本文通过对红岩水电站库区富营养化程度预测判别,分析了中小型水电站库区蓄水后富营养化变化趋势,提出中小型水电站库区富营养化控制对策,为湖库区水质保护与改善提供参考。     

堰槽式明渠废水流量监测数据有效性判别技术研究

针对缺少堰槽明渠废水流量监测数据有效性判别技术的现状,研究了计量检定期间对废水流量计的监督检查技术,设计了现场计量检定项目、流量计运行维护情况、生产工况的变化3个方面检查内容、8项检查指标,并分别提出了检查方法及检查结果的判定与处理,填补了中国废水流量自动数据有效性认定的技术空白,完善了废水流量监测的质控体系。开展的试点工作表明,该文提出废水流量计监督检查技术具有较好的实用性。