Emissions corridors for reducing the risk of a collapse of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation

In this paper, we present the integrated assessment model dimrise (dynamic integrated model of regular climate change impacts and singular events). This model is designed to investigate the stability of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) and to derive related climate policy recommendations. It is written in GAMS and comprises a dynamic model of the THC coupled to a climate model and a global economy model for assessing the monetary cost of climate protection. The THC model is a dynamic four-box interhemispheric extension of the classic Stommel model calibrated against results obtained using the CLIMBER-2 climate model. The reduced-form climate model used to drive the THC model is the ICLIPS multi-gas climate model, which is a computationally efficient, globally aggregated model able to mimic the response of more sophisticated carbon cycle and atmosphere-ocean general circulation models. The THC and climate modules are coupled to a globally aggregated Ramsey-type optimal growth model of the world economy derived from the Nordhaus DICE model. Together, these components create a novel dynamic fully coupled computationally efficient integrated assessment model. Illustrative applications demonstrate that dimrise is able to derive (constrained) economically optimal emissions paths that comply with prescribed bounds on admissible THC weakening imposed in order to avoid an irrevocable breakdown. In addition, emissions corridors are presented which contain all possible emissions paths that do not endanger the stability of the THC and that simultaneously obey restrictions on welfare loss arising from mitigation efforts. The presented results show that, under worst-case conditions, the stability of the THC may be threatened within two decades if global emissions would not deviate from the business-as-usual trajectory.

Urban growth and landscape connectivity threats assessment at Saguaro National Park,Arizona, USA

Urban and exurban expansion results in habitat and biodiversity loss globally. We hypothesize that a coupled-model approach could connect urban planning for future cities with landscape ecology to consider wildland habitat connectivity. Our work combines urban growth simulations with models of wildlife corridors to examine how species will be impacted by development to test this hypothesis. We leverage a land use change model (SLEUTH) with structural and functional landscape-connectivity modeling techniques to ascertain the spatial extent and locations of connectivity related threats to a national park in southern Arizona, USA, and describe how protected areas might be impacted by urban expansion. Results of projected growth significantly altered structural connectivity (80%) when compared to current (baseline) corridor conditions. Moreover, projected growth impacted functional connectivity differently amongst species, indicating resilience of some species and near-complete displacement of others. We propose that implementing a geospatial-design-based model will allow for a better understanding of the impacts management decisions have on wildlife populations. The application provides the potential to understand both human and environmental impacts of land-system dynamics, critical for long-term sustainability.     

Spatially mixed crops to control the stratified dispersal of airborne fungal diseases

Intraspecific crop diversification is thought to be a possible solution to the disease susceptibility of monocultured crops. We modelled the stratified dispersal of an airborne pathogen population in order to identify the spatial patterns of cultivar mixtures that could slow epidemic spread driven by dual dispersal mechanisms acting over both short and long distances. We developed a model to simulate the propagation of a fungal disease in a 2D field, including a reaction-diffusion model for short-distance disease dispersal, and a stochastic model for long-distance dispersal. The model was fitted to data for the spatio-temporal spread of faba bean rust (caused by Uromyces viciae-fabae) through a discontinuous field. The model was used to compare the effectiveness of eight different planting patterns of cultivar mixtures against a disease spread by short-distance and stratified dispersal. Our combined modelling approach provides a reasonably good fit with the observed data for the spread of faba bean rust. Similar predictive power could be expected for the management of resource-mediated invasions by other airborne fungi. If a disease spreads by short-distance dispersal, random mixtures can be used to slow the epidemic spread, since their spatial irregularity creates a natural barrier to the progression of a smooth epidemic wave. In the context of stratified dispersal, heterogeneous patterns should be used that include a minimum distance between susceptible units, which decreases the probability of infection by long-distance spore dispersal. We provide a simple framework for modelling the stratified dispersal of disease in a diversified crop. The model suggests that the spatial arrangement of components in cultivar mixtures has to accord with the dispersal characteristics of the pathogen in order to increase the efficiency of diversification strategies in agro-ecosystems and forestry. It can be applied in low input agriculture to manage pathogen invasion by intercropping and cultivar mixtures, and to design sustainable systems of land use.     

抚顺市空气污染预报方案筛选

空气污染预报的准确性取决于大气污染物扩散模型的选取和预报方案的设计。本文以经过验证的ADMS-大气污染物扩散模型为基础。设计了四种预报方案。并对四种方案的预报准确性进行检验，从而筛选出了适用于抚顺市空气污染特点的最佳预报方案。     

Relation between extinction and assisted colonization of plants in the arctic‐alpine and boreal regions

Assisted colonization of vascular plants is considered by many ecologists an important tool to preserve biodiversity threatened by climate change. I argue that assisted colonization may have negative consequences in arctic‐alpine and boreal regions. The observed slow movement of plants toward the north has been an argument for assisted colonization. However, these range shifts may be slow because for many plants microclimatic warming (ignored by advocates of assisted colonization) has been smaller than macroclimatic warming. Arctic‐alpine and boreal plants may have limited possibilities to disperse farther north or to higher elevations. I suggest that arctic‐alpine species are more likely to be driven to extinction because of competitive exclusion by southern species than by increasing temperatures. If so, the future existence of arctic‐alpine and boreal flora may depend on delaying or preventing the migration of plants toward the north to allow northern species to evolve to survive in a warmer climate. In the arctic‐alpine region, preventing the dispersal of trees and shrubs may be the most important method to mitigate the negative effects of climate change. The purported conservation benefits of assisted colonization should not be used to promote the migration of invasive species by forestry.     

Identification of Areas in Brazil that Optimize Conservation of Forest Carbon,Jaguars, and Biodiversity

A major question in global environmental policy is whether schemes to reduce carbon pollution through forest management, such as Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD+), can also benefit biodiversity conservation in tropical countries. We identified municipalities in Brazil that are priorities for reducing rates of deforestation and thus preserving carbon stocks that are also conservation targets for the endangered jaguar (Panthera onca) and biodiversity in general. Preliminary statistical analysis showed that municipalities with high biodiversity were positively associated with high forest carbon stocks. We used a multicriteria decision analysis to identify municipalities that offered the best opportunities for the conservation of forest carbon stocks and biodiversity conservation under a range of scenarios with different rates of deforestation and carbon values. We further categorized these areas by their representativeness of the entire country (through measures such as percent forest cover) and an indirect measure of cost (number of municipalities). The municipalities that offered optimal co‐benefits for forest carbon stocks and conservation were termed REDDspots (n = 159), and their spatial distribution was compared with the distribution of current and proposed REDD projects (n = 135). We defined REDDspots as the municipalities that offer the best opportunities for co‐benefits between the conservation of forest carbon stocks, jaguars, and other wildlife. These areas coincided in 25% (n = 40) of municipalities. We identified a further 95 municipalities that may have the greatest potential to develop additional REDD+ projects while also targeting biodiversity conservation. We concluded that REDD+ strategies could be an efficient tool for biodiversity conservation in key locations, especially in Amazonian and Atlantic Forest biomes. Identificación de Áreas en Brasil que Optimizan la Conservación del Carbono del Bosque, Jaguares y la Biodiversidad.     

Forest Roads as Partial Barriers to Terrestrial Salamander Movement

Abstract:  Roads can fragment animal populations by disrupting movement among formerly continuous habitats. Although models have demonstrated that disrupted movement can contribute to long-term extinction, there are few empirical data on the effects of roads on animal movement. We used displacement and homing experiments to determine whether forest roads are barriers to the movement of terrestrial salamanders. We displaced 1471 red-backed salamanders ( Plethodon cinereus ) across five forest roads and compared return rates to those of salamanders displaced equal distances toward the forest interior. Roads significantly reduced the return rate of salamanders, with a mean reduction of 51%. Steep roadside verges further reduced return rates, particularly for salamanders moving downhill across verges. The permeability of roads to salamander movement did not appear to be related to road surface type. Gravel roads had both the highest and lowest observed permeability with the two paved roads intermediate between these. We conclude that narrow forest roads are partial barriers to salamander movement and that steep roadside verges may exacerbate these effects.     

Territory and group sizes in Eurasian beavers (Castor fiber): echoes of settlement and reproduction?

According to current theories of territoriality, an animal is expected to defend the smallest area that can provide resources for maximisation of reproduction, known as the economically defendable area. In group territorial species however, the strategies behind resource defence are likely to be more complex with corporate territoriality, cooperative breeding, delayed dispersal and intra-group competition all potentially playing a role. Here we examined group territoriality in a social herbivorous rodent, the Eurasian beaver Castor fiber. Beavers in our study do not inhabit economically defendable territories. Instead the sequence of arrival of pairs into unoccupied areas seems to play a more important role in determining the size of the territory, whereas group size is determined by past reproductive success. We argue that the settlement pattern and reproductive history have a lasting impact in the territorial system of beavers due to a combination of the low adult mortality, high dispersal costs, and avoidance of resource depletion.R.D. Campbell and F. Rosell contributed equally to this work     

The Journal of Coastal Conservation, 1995–2004

This paper concludes the publication of theJournal of Coastal Conservation from 1995–2004 after the European Coastal Union and the Publishers decided to terminate the production of the journal. We look back at the 206 research papers published in this period while concentrating on Geographical and ecological variation, Focuses and trends, and Progress in European coastal conservation and management. Three indices are added: (1) a list of the 206 papers; (2) an Author Index; and (3) a Subject Index based on the titles, keywords and some additional important subjects found in the tables and figures.