基于集对分析的石化企业安全投资状况动态评价

石油化工企业的安全事故频发和职业危害严重,不仅造成重大经济损失,而且对社会造成了不良影响,不合理的安全投资是造成这种状况的主要原因之一,对企业现有安全投资状况进行评价是合理进行安全投资的前提和基础。本文针对石油化工企业安全投资评价中诸多不确定性因素和动态特征进行分析,运用集对分析和马尔可夫链理论,建立了基于集对分析石化企业安全投资状况的动态评价模型,为安全投资状况评价工作提供了一个新方法。以某石油化工企业为例,通过对该企业2006-2009年这四年安全投资状况进行动态评价分析,并预测出2010年该企业的安全投资状况。评价结果表明,将集对分析和马尔可夫链理论用于石化企业安全投资状况的动态评价与预测,起到了非常好的效果,能够为企业科学合理地作出正确决策提供理论依据。     

我国煤炭行业尘肺病现状分析及防治对策

尘肺病是我国目前最严重的职业病,每年新增尘肺病病例一万例以上,其中煤炭行业尘肺病病例约占全国尘肺病患者总数的50%。煤炭行业由尘肺病引发的矿工伤亡人数,远远高于各类工伤事故伤亡人数的总和。煤炭是我国的主要能源,在国民经济和社会发展中占重要地位,我国煤矿企业多,从业人员数量大,职业危害严重,其中以粉尘危害最为突出。煤矿尘肺病不仅危及矿工的身体健康和生命安全,而且关系到国民经济的发展和社会的和谐稳定。我国煤矿尘肺病现状堪忧,尘肺病发病病例不降反升,分布更加广泛,矿工检查诊断和求治不及时,尘肺病防治工作形势严峻。本文具体分析了我国煤矿尘肺病现状,从管理、技术、资金以及法律等多方面深入探讨了导致如今现状的原因,最后针对各方面原因提出了煤炭行业尘肺病防治对策。     

乌昌地区城镇污水处理方式探讨

随着乌昌经济的发展,城市人口快速增长,生活污水的排放量剧增,对环境造成直接和潜在威胁。通过对乌昌地区城镇污水处理现状,昌吉州人工防护林建设状况分析,结合防护林用水量及地下水资源现状分析。探讨城镇污水处理的全新模式,从其生态效益、环境效益、社会效益和经济效益做了分析阐述。     

Establishing IUCN Red List Criteria for Threatened Ecosystems

Abstract: The potential for conservation of individual species has been greatly advanced by the International Union for Conservation of Nature's (IUCN) development of objective, repeatable, and transparent criteria for assessing extinction risk that explicitly separate risk assessment from priority setting. At the IV World Conservation Congress in 2008, the process began to develop and implement comparable global standards for ecosystems. A working group established by the IUCN has begun formulating a system of quantitative categories and criteria, analogous to those used for species, for assigning levels of threat to ecosystems at local, regional, and global levels. A final system will require definitions of ecosystems; quantification of ecosystem status; identification of the stages of degradation and loss of ecosystems; proxy measures of risk (criteria); classification thresholds for these criteria; and standardized methods for performing assessments. The system will need to reflect the degree and rate of change in an ecosystem's extent, composition, structure, and function, and have its conceptual roots in ecological theory and empirical research. On the basis of these requirements and the hypothesis that ecosystem risk is a function of the risk of its component species, we propose a set of four criteria: recent declines in distribution or ecological function, historical total loss in distribution or ecological function, small distribution combined with decline, or very small distribution. Most work has focused on terrestrial ecosystems, but comparable thresholds and criteria for freshwater and marine ecosystems are also needed. These are the first steps in an international consultation process that will lead to a unified proposal to be presented at the next World Conservation Congress in 2012.     

防治船舶污染水域监管工作的思考与建议

从内河船舶污染防治法规体系、防治船舶污染管理手段以及防治船舶污染意识3个方面,详细分析目前内河防治船舶污染水域监管工作现状和存在问题,并为内河防治船舶污染水域监督工作提出对策与建议.     

Evaporating liquid flow in a channel (An integral model based on shallow water flow approximation)

Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) storage facilities generally include channels to convey potential spills of the liquid to an impoundment. There is increasing concern that dispersion of vapors generated by flow of LNG in a channel may lead to higher than limit vapor concentrations for safety at site boundary from channels that may be close to the dike walls. This issue is of recent concern to regulatory agencies, because the calculation of vapor hazard distance(s) from LNG flow in a channel is not required under existing LNG facility siting standards or regulations.An important parameter that directly affects the calculated LNG vapor dispersion distance is the source strength (i.e., the rate of vaporization of LNG flow from the wetted channel surfaces, as a function of spatial position and time). In this paper a model is presented which considers the variation of the depth of the flowing LNG with spatial location and time, and calculates the spatial and temporal dependence of the mass rate of vapor generation. Self similar profiles for the spatial variation of the thermal boundary layer in the liquid wetted wall and liquid depth variation are assumed. The variation with time of the location of the liquid spread front and the evaporation rate are calculated for the case of a constant LNG spill rate into a rectangular channel. The effects of two different channel slopes are evaluated. Details of the results and their impact on dispersion distances are discussed.     

Dispersion of the vapour cloud in the Buncefield Incident

Dispersion of the flammable vapour cloud in the 2005 Buncefield Incident is examined. Footage from security cameras around the site is analysed and the results from Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations of the vapour dispersion are presented. It is shown that the shape of the terrain and the presence of obstacles significantly affected the dispersion of vapour from the overflowing tank. The CFD model is shown to produce similar qualitative behaviour to that observed in the incident, both in terms of the arrival time of the vapour cloud and its final depth.     

危险化学品泄漏扩散模型的研究现状分析与比较

为了对危险化学品港口装卸过程中泄漏危险度进行量化评定,基于泄漏扩散模型提高港口的应急处理技术,对危险化学品泄漏扩散模型的研究现状从理论研究、试验研究、应用研究3方面进行深入分析。着重对高斯模型(Gaussian model),BM模型,Sutton模型,FEM3模型,箱及相似模型,P-G模型等模型从理论描述方法、适用对象和范围、计算精度和难易、参数选取等方面进行优缺点的对比研究,认为:由于危险化学品泄漏和扩散行为的复杂性,影响因素的多样性,使各类模型在具备一定的理论价值和现实意义的同时,还存在着参数选取不确定性、试验模拟差异性以及实际应用局限性的问题和不足,运用计算机技术完善试验结果数据库、改进数学仿真模型是其进一步研究发展的趋势。     

我国典型区域地表水环境中抗生素污染现状及其生态风险评价

为了解我国典型地表水环境中抗生素污染现状与生态风险,本文通过历史数据收集,利用风险商评价模型(RQ)与风险简单叠加模型(RQSUM)对我国5个典型地表水环境中丰水期的抗生素污染进行生态风险评价.结果表明:①5个区域内地表水在丰水期(4～9月)主要受到8种抗生素污染的生态风险,分别是磺胺甲基异噁唑(SMX)、磺胺甲基嘧啶(SM)、红霉素(ETM)、罗红霉素(RTM)、四环素(TC)、氧土霉素(OTC)、诺氟沙星(NOR)和氧氟沙星(OFL);②5个区域内首要的抗生素污染类型为SMX和ETM,SMX对长江三角洲和巢湖流域的RQ_(SUM)贡献率分别为91. 1%和98. 5%,ETM对江汉平原、珠江三角洲和黄河三角洲的RQ_(SUM)贡献率分别为94. 4%、81. 8%和60%;③根据RQSUM值大小对5个区域内受到抗生素污染的生态风险由高到低排序为:江汉平原(20. 204)长江三角洲(8. 769)巢湖流域(2. 692)黄河三角洲(1. 943)珠江三角洲(1. 222).     

秦山岛周边海域大型底栖动物群落健康状况评价

2015年8月,对秦山岛周边的10个站位进行大型底栖动物定量调查。采用生物多样性指数法和丰度生物量比较法对大型底栖动物群落健康状况进行评价。结果显示,共鉴定大型底栖动物7大类31种,其中软体动物、环节动物各10种,节肢动物5种,脊索动物和棘皮动物各2种,纽虫类和腔肠动物各1种;密度优势类群为软体动物,占总密度的35.00%,生物量优势类群为脊索动物,占总生物量的49.35%;优势种分别为红狼牙虾虎鱼(Odontamblyopus rubicundus)、棘刺锚参(Protankyra bidentata)、内卷原盒螺(Eocylichna involuta)和微角齿口螺(Odostomia subangulata)。大型底栖动物密度为站位St.6最大,为115 ind./m²,St.2最小,为20 ind./m²,平均值为70 ind./m²;生物量St.3最大,为197.25 g/m²,St.9最小,为2.56 g/m²,平均值为54.04 g/m²。秦山岛受污染压力、人为活动干扰和生境限制能因素影响,多样性偏低,优势种为耐污的软体动物、脊索动物和棘皮动物,但其主要为K对策种类,大型底栖动物群落受到了轻度干扰,但群落结构仍较为稳定。