煤矿企业重大灾害预防与安全保障体系构建与运行评价

为提高煤矿企业重大灾害预防与安全保障能力,以典型煤矿企业为例,深入分析企业重大灾害的孕灾环境与类型,确定诱发煤矿重大灾害事故发生的关键因素,并提出构建以“安全文化理念”为1个核心,涵盖“组织”“制度”“人员”“技术”“信息”“装备”“资金”7个要素以及“危险源预控”和“灾害应急救援”2个关键环节的整体安全保障体系;最后,利用事故树模型和层次分析法评价某典型煤矿企业历年来的灾害事故实际情况,提出相关保障体系的持续优化方案,研究结果可为煤炭行业企业开展重大灾害预防与安全保障体系的设计与构建提供参考和借鉴。     

长大深埋隧道未开挖段岩爆灾害风险评估

为综合评估长大深埋隧道岩爆灾害风险,基于大量岩爆研究文献及待评估隧道的工程条件建立岩爆风险评估指标体系,包括单轴抗压强度、地应力、岩体完整性系数3个指标,并将岩爆风险划分为低、中、高和极高4个等级;根据围岩等级将待评估的五老峰隧道未开挖部分划分为4个区段,根据指标体系搜集各区段指标值,并将指标区间划分值与实际指标值归一化;基于重要性排序法和可拓综合评判确定未开挖区段的岩爆风险等级。研究结果表明:该隧道区段1,3和4的岩爆风险为中度,后续施工中应予以监测;区段2的岩爆风险为高度,在后续施工中必须采取风险控制措施降低风险并加强监测。     

地震监测台站开展防震减灾科普宣传的实践探索

科普宣传是防震减灾工作的重要组成部分。在传统科普宣传形式之外,如何利用大量专业地震监测台站开展科普宣传是一个重要课题。通过分析我国防震减灾科普宣传的成绩和不足,结合几年来北京市地震局地震台站开展防震减灾科普宣传实例,提炼归纳出利用地震监测台站开展科普宣传的独特优势,提出应该转变传统科普宣传思维模式,切实发挥专业地震监测台站防震减灾科普宣传的作用,并就如何加强地震监测台站的科普宣传工作提出了具体建议。     

疏勒河中游绿洲生态环境需水时空变化特征研究

以疏勒河流域中游绿洲为研究区,借助统计分析法、RS和GIS技术方法,选择1970、1980、1990、2000和2013年疏勒河中游绿洲Landsat TM/ETM影像解译成果作为中游绿洲生态演变研究的基础资料,分析得出各种生态系统覆盖状况.根据疏勒河中游绿洲生态环境需水特征,建立了基于天然植被、河流、湿地和防治耕地盐碱化的疏勒河中游绿洲生态环境需水定量化模型,并估算了不同时段不同区域流域中游绿洲生态环境需水量,探讨了疏勒河中游绿洲生态环境需水时空变化特征,从而为区域水资源合理配置和生态环境协调发展提供参考依据.通过计算得出了疏勒河中游绿洲1970、1980、1990、2000和2013年天然植被、河流基本生态、河流输沙、河流渗漏补给、水面蒸发、湿地生态和防治耕地盐碱化生态环境需水量,同时得出总生态环境需水量分别为17.94×108、7.51×108、6.92×108、6.63×108、5.52×108m3.1970—2013年疏勒河中游绿洲总生态环境需水量呈现逐渐减少趋势,减少了12.42×108m3.1970—2013年疏勒河中游绿洲总生态环境需水量空间变化特征呈现瓜州敦煌玉门,同时各区域生态环境需水量均呈现减少趋势.     

Community resilience to natural disasters in the informal settlements in Mwanza City,Tanzania

The impacts of natural disasters on communities living in hazard prone areas are wide ranging and complex. In Mwanza, steep slopes, rocky hills and river valleys are inhabited by society's poorest people. These areas are prone to natural disasters. Residents have accumulated coping mechanisms for disaster risks and impact reduction. We combine spatial data, household surveys and data from focus groups to identify and rank areas based on their exposure to major disasters. We also examine household and communal mitigation efforts in relation to these disasters. Most areas of the city are exposed to at least one of the natural disasters studied. Pre- and post-disaster risk reduction measures are influenced by the site of homesteads and the socioeconomic situation of households. Current resilience measures are skewed towards the development of physical infrastructure. The challenge of reducing disaster risks in Mwanza involves recognizing the role of non-infrastructure based factors that promote urban resilience to natural disasters.     

基于AHP-FUZZY与SVM理论电网雷害风险评估

为了对电网遭受雷击灾害风险进行研究,以高压输电线路多个雷害影响因子为出发点对其进行归类,解决了以单因子雷击跳闸率作为高压输电线路遭受雷害评价指标的不足。采用AHP(层次分析法)-FUZZY(模糊数学理论)对电网雷害风险展开评估分级,引入某地500 k V电网工程实例,成功将该地电网雷害风险等级定为Ⅲ级中等雷害风险。为验证AHP-FUZZY法对电网雷害风险进行评估的准确性及可靠度,采用SVM(支持向量机)理论对工程实例进行分析计算,结果相关性系数R2为0.932,预测错误率为0,表明本次风险评估是可靠的,能够为电网雷害风险研究提供较大的理论与实际支撑。     

岩石声发射监测技术应用分析──对三峡水利枢纽运行时库区内滑坡实时动态监测的建议

简要介绍了三峡库区运行时滑坡实时监测的主要内容，介绍了以防大灾为目的的多参数、多手段、多方位的长期、快速有效的动态监测系统，并分析了岩石声发射监测技术的应用前景和为此需进一步研究的问题．     

Farmers' perceptions of implementation of climate variability disaster preparedness strategies in Central Uganda

This paper examines smallholder farmers' perceptions of the implementation of climate change disaster preparedness strategies in Mpigi district in Central Uganda. Furthermore, existing community early actions against climate change disasters were investigated. Data were collected through semi-structured interviews and focus group discussions at the community level. Using the Statistical Package for Social Sciences version 16, data obtained through semi-structured interviews were subjected to quantitative analysis to generate percentages for several variables and cross-tabulation analyses between selected variables. Farmers perceived prolonged droughts, increased pests and diseases outbreaks in crops and livestock as a consequence of climate change as the major climate change disasters. They considered the implementation of climate change disaster preparedness at community and village level as inadequate. This triggered implementation of various early actions by farmers as responses to climate change disasters. These actions constitute an informal community-based early warning system against climate change disasters.     

Assessing the impact of the Indian Ocean tsunami on households: a modified domestic assets index approach

This paper offers a potential measurement solution for assessing disaster impacts and subsequent recovery at the household level by using a modified domestic assets index (MDAI) approach. Assessment of the utility of the domestic assets index first proposed by Bates, Killian and Peacock (1984) has been confined to earthquake areas in the Americas and southern Europe. This paper modifies and extends the approach to the Indian sub‐continent and to coastal surge hazards utilizing data collected from 1,000 households impacted by the Indian Ocean tsunami (2004) in the Nagapattinam district of south‐eastern India. The analyses suggest that the MDAI scale is a reliable and valid measure of household living conditions and is useful in assessing disaster impacts and tracking recovery efforts over time. It can facilitate longitudinal studies, encourage cross‐cultural, cross‐national comparisons of disaster impacts and inform national and international donors of the itemized monetary losses from disasters at the household level.     

The functions of social service workers at a time of war against a civilian population

This article identifies the nature of functions that social service workers employed by municipal organisations have to perform during a community disaster and subsequent reorganisation at a time of war. The article also explores to what extent the functions of workers change as a result of the transition from a peacetime routine to a war situation. Using focus groups the study assesses the knowledge of social service workers and ordinary citizens who had direct experience of the second Lebanese war in Israel (2006). Eight major functions needed at a time of disaster are distinguished among various employees. The article discusses the significance of these functions, and the need to make changes in the network of functions at a time of disaster.