生产部门提高能源效率的宏观能耗回弹分析

提高能源效率已成为我国节能减排政策的重点,但是由于经济系统内在的调整机制作用,在宏观层面所能实现的节能效果可能不及微观技术层面能源效率提高的程度,甚至还会诱发更多的能源消耗,该现象被称为“宏观能耗回弹”效应.本文通过构建一个中国环境资源CGE模型,测算生产部门提高能源效率的宏观能耗回弹效应.结果显示,能源效率提高5％后,短期回弹效应为52.38％,节能效果仅达到技术层面预期的一半左右;长期回弹效应达178.61％,在高耗能部门竞争力提高、耗能产品出口扩张和经济增长的推动下,节能效果不但被完全抵消,总能耗还进一步增加.因此,生产部门提高能源效率在短期内确实能够降低我国能源消耗,但是由于回弹效应的存在,长期来看,在技术层面“产量相同投入更少”的努力反映到宏观经济层面则转变成“生产更多投入更多”,并且加剧了我国经济高耗能的偏好,提高能源效率所引发的产出增长和结构调整对能耗增加的刺激作用可能最终会抵消或者超过提高能源效率的节能效果.     

不同密度螺-草结构对养殖尾水净化效果的比较研究

为减少水产养殖污染物排放,以苦草为对照组,构建环棱螺螺 草生态系统净化池塘养殖尾水,比较不同密度螺 草结构对养殖尾水的净化效果,同时探讨螺草互作对水质的影响。结果表明不同密度螺 草组合对养殖尾水均有较好的净化效果,以中密度组（螺密度50 ind/m3）的去除效果最优,25 d对Chl a、CODMn、TN、TP、NH4+ N、NO3- N和浊度的去除率分别达到98%、39.7%、44.2%、86.9%、58.2%、82.3%和91%,其中以17~25 d的营养物质去除率最高,水质由原来的Ⅳ类、Ⅴ类水提升为Ⅲ类水;环棱螺 苦草互作对水体的净化效果与苦草对照组差异不显著,表明其互利关系不明显;环棱螺 苦草组合对CODMn和TN的去除效果不是很理想,可能是由于实验中以黄土为底泥,其中的异养微生物较少引起的     

Improving inverse model fitting in trees—Anisotropy,multiplicative effects,and Bayes estimation

Model fitting for individual-based effects in forests has some problems. Because samples measuring the separate influence of each individual are rarely available, the measured value in the sample represents the influence of all surrounding individual trees. Therefore, it is helpful to build inverse models that use the spatial pattern of the variable as well as that of the source trees. For example, since seed dispersal is influenced by wind effects, a model is discussed describing anisotropic effects to ensure an unbiased estimate of the total fruit number. Further, we present a model describing the absorption of radiation by trees. In this case a multiplicative combination of individual effects yields the total effect. Our approach uses logarithmic transformations of the original data to model multiplicative combinations as sum of transformed single effects. For fitting model parameters we propose an approach based on Bayesian statistics, to ensure ecologically interpretable parameters.     

Enhancement of UV and chromate mutagenesis by nickel ions in the Chinese hamster HGPRT Assay †

1. The HGPRT (Hypoxanthine‐Guanine‐Phospho‐Ribosyl‐Transferase) assay with Chinese Hamster V79 cells was used to measure the mutagenic effects of UV irradiation, potassium dichromate and nickel chloride. The agents were tested separately and in the combinations of UV plus nickel and dichromate plus nickel.

2. UV, Cr(VI) and Ni(II) were confirmed to be mutagenic in the V79 cell assay. The combination of UV(5J/m²) and Ni(II) (0.5 mM) caused a mutation rate 11.2 times above that corresponding to the sum of the individual mutation rates of these agents. The combined action of Cr(VI) (0.1 mM) and Ni(II) (0.5 mM) produced a mutation rate 2.8 fold above that corresponding to the sum of the individual rates of the separate agents.

3. The enhancing effect of nickel chloride on the mutagenicity of UV or Cr(VI) is interpreted by an interference of Ni(II) with the repair of DNA lesions.     

Disturbance regimes,resilience, and recovery of animal communities and habitats in lotic ecosystems

Disturbance regime is a critical organizing feature of stream communities and ecosystems. The position of a given reach in the river basin and the sediment type within that reach are two key determinants of the frequency and intensity of flow-induced disturbances. We distinguish between predictable and unpredictable events and suggest that predictable discharge events are not disturbances. We relate the dynamics of recovery from disturbance (i.e., resilience) to disturbance regime (i.e., the disturbance history of the site). The most frequently and predictably disturbed sites can be expected to demonstrate the highest resilience. Spatial scale is an important dimension of community structure, dynamics, and recovery from disturbance. We compare the effects on small patches (⩽1 m²) to the effects of large reaches at the river basin level. At small scales, sediment movements and scour are major factors affecting the distribution of populations of aquatic insects or algae. At larger scales, we must deal with channel formation, bank erosion, and interactions with the riparian zone that will affect all taxa and processes. Our understanding of stream ecosystem recovery rests on our grasp of the historical, spatial, and temporal background of contemporary disturbance events.     

Ecotoxicological effects assessment in the Netherlands: Recent developments

In a recently published annex to the National Environmental Policy Plan of the Netherlands (1989), attention was paid to ecotoxicological effects assessment. The proposed procedure was based on the advice of the Health Council of the Netherlands (1989) on risk assessment of toxic chemicals for ecosystems. The various extrapolation methods described by the Health Council are critically discussed in this paper. The extrapolation method of Van Straalen and Denneman (1989) is evaluated for eight chemicals and 11 aquatic species. Conclusions are drawn about the quality and quantity of the ecotoxicological data needed for aquatic effects assessment. For the soil—a compartment that is often at risk—ecotoxicological effects assessment is not possible because suitable ecotoxicological test methods still have to be developed.     

LONG-TERM PATTERNS OF WATER QUALITY IN A MANAGED WATERSHED IN OREGON: 1. SUSPENDED SEDIMENT1

The cumulative effects of forest management activities on water quality at a downstream point were monitored from 1972-1980 during development of a watershed for timber resources. Suspended sediment concentration and turbidity were measured at two hydrologic stations which bracketed a 10-km reach of the Middle Santiam River in the Western Cascades of Oregon as it flowed through an 8000-ha block of intensively managed forest land. Slope failures often accompany road building and harvesting in steep forested watersheds and pose the most serious threat to water quality. Although 180 km of road were constructed and 3400 ha of old-growth forests were harvested from slopes averaging over 60 percent, long-term changes in sediment yields remained undetectable during the period of measurement. The geologic characteristics of the basin and the road construction and maintenance techniques as prescribed by Oregon's forest practice regulations helped to minimize the occurrence of slope failures so that long-term changes in suspended sediment export rates did not occur. Throughout the nine-year measurement period, seven slope failures which added sediment directly to streams produced measurable short-term responses at the downstream sampling location, but these erosion events were too small and too infrequent to produce long-term changes in sediment yield from the watershed.     

EFFECTS OF RATE STRUCTURE KNOWLEDGE ON HOUSEHOLD WATER USE1

ABSTRACT: Socioeconomic determinants of individual household water use were estimated using regressions of these characteristics with actual household water use for winter and summer. Results were disaggregated between those consumers who were aware of an increasing block rate price structure and those who were not. Most of the informed group members believed that this price structure did result in significant reductions in water use. Nevertheless, overall water use was greater for the informed group. The determinants of water use were found to differ between informed and uninformed users as well as between winter and summer. The uninformed users were influenced by a larger set of variables in each season than the informed group. In winter, the informed group members with swimming pools and/or arid landscaping used less water than their uninformed counterparts. Summer water use increased with length of tenancy in home for the uninformed group but not for informed, while increasing with ownership for informed consumers.     

FACTORS THAT AFFECT ACTIVATED SLUDGE PHOSPHATE RELEASE1

The activated sludge process can remove significant amounts of phosphorus from sewage, but the removal efficiency is usually significantly reduced by the release of phosphate back to solution during subsequent treatment steps. This research presents a study of soluble phosphate release from activated sludge with emphasis on defining the factors that affect such release and the actual release mechanisms. Laboratory units were used for experimental purposes. The experiments were designed to study the relationship between soluble phosphate release and various environmental factors such as redox potential (ORP), dissolved oxygen (DO), pH, solids concentration, solids destruction, and sulfate salt addition. The effect of substrate utilization on phosphate uptake and the relationship between uptake characteristics and subsequent phosphate release were also studied. The results show that some phosphate storage occurs during aerobic substrate utilization. Following substrate utilization, activated sludge phosphate release is directly related to the amount of biological stress the organisms are subjected to, and the mechanism of release is primarily cell lysis. The phosphate released per unit sludge under anoxic conditions is relatively constant. Under normal environmental conditions, neither ORP or pH change have a significant affect on phosphate release.