Critical factors for the recovery of marine mammals

{en} Over the past decades, much research has focused on understanding the critical factors for marine extinctions with the aim of preventing further species losses in the oceans. Although conservation and management strategies are enabling several species and populations to recover, others remain at low abundance levels or continue to decline. To understand these discrepancies, we used a published database on abundance trends of 137 populations of marine mammals worldwide and compiled data on 28 potentially critical factors for recovery. We then applied random forests and additive mixed models to determine which intrinsic and extrinsic factors are critical for the recovery of marine mammals. A mix of life‐history characteristics, ecological traits, phylogenetic relatedness, population size, geographic range, human impacts, and management efforts explained why populations recovered or not. Consistently, species with lower age at maturity and intermediate habitat area were more likely to recover, which is consistent with life‐history and ecological theory. Body size, trophic level, social interactions, dominant habitat, ocean basin, and habitat disturbance also explained some differences in recovery patterns. Overall, a variety of intrinsic and extrinsic factors were important for species’ recovery, pointing to cumulative effects. Our results provide insight for improving conservation and management strategies to enhance recoveries in the future.     

Predictors of occupancy trend across spatial scale

Many explorations of extinction probability have had a global focus, yet it is unclear whether variables that explain the probability of extinction at large spatial extents are the same as those at small spatial extents. Thus, we used nearly annual presence-absence records for the most recent 40 years of a 110-year data set from Palenque, Mexico, an area with ongoing deforestation, to explore which of >200 species of birds have probabilities of extirpation that are likely to increase. We assessed associations between long-term trends in species presence (i.e., detection in a given year) and body size, geographic range size, diet, dependence on forest cover, taxonomy, and ecological specialization. Our response variable was the estimated slope of a weighted logistic regression for each species. We assessed the relative strength of each predictor by means of a model ranking scheme. Several variables associated with high extinction probability at global extents, such as large body size or small geographic range size, were not associated with occurrence of birds over time at our site. Body size was associated with species loss at Palenque, but occurrence trends of both very large and very small species, particularly the latter, have declined, or the species have been extirpated. We found no association between declining occurrence trend and geographic range size, yet decline correlated with whether a species depends on forest (mean occupancy trend =-0.0380, 0.0263, and 0.0186 for, respectively, species with high, intermediate, or low dependence on forest) and with complex combinations of diet and foraging strata (e.g., occurrence of canopy insectivores and terrestrial omnivores has increased, whereas occurrence of mid-level frugivores and terrestrial granivores has decreased). Our findings emphasize that analyses of local areas are necessary to explicate extirpation risk at various spatial extents.     

Effects of Harvesting Flowers from Shrubs on the Persistence and Abundance of Wild Shrub Populations at Multiple Spatial Extents

Abstract: Wildflower harvesting is an economically important activity of which the ecological effects are poorly understood. We assessed how harvesting of flowers affects shrub persistence and abundance at multiple spatial extents. To this end, we built a process‐based model to examine the mean persistence and abundance of wild shrubs whose flowers are subject to harvest (serotinous Proteaceae in the South African Cape Floristic Region). First, we conducted a general sensitivity analysis of how harvesting affects persistence and abundance at nested spatial extents. For most spatial extents and combinations of demographic parameters, persistence and abundance of flowering shrubs decreased abruptly once harvesting rate exceeded a certain threshold. At larger extents, metapopulations supported higher harvesting rates before their persistence and abundance decreased, but persistence and abundance also decreased more abruptly due to harvesting than at smaller extents. This threshold rate of harvest varied with species’ dispersal ability, maximum reproductive rate, adult mortality, probability of extirpation or local extinction, strength of Allee effects, and carrying capacity. Moreover, spatial extent interacted with Allee effects and probability of extirpation because both these demographic properties affected the response of local populations to harvesting more strongly than they affected the response of metapopulations. Subsequently, we simulated the effects of harvesting on three Cape Floristic Region Proteaceae species and found that these species reacted differently to harvesting, but their persistence and abundance decreased at low rates of harvest. Our estimates of harvesting rates at maximum sustainable yield differed from those of previous investigations, perhaps because researchers used different estimates of demographic parameters, models of population dynamics, and spatial extent than we did. Good demographic knowledge and careful identification of the spatial extent of interest increases confidence in assessments and monitoring of the effects of harvesting. Our general sensitivity analysis improved understanding of harvesting effects on metapopulation dynamics and allowed qualitative assessment of the probability of extirpation of poorly studied species.     

The Paradox of the Long‐Term Positive Effects of a North American Crayfish on a European Community of Predators

Abstract: Invasions of non‐native species are one of the major causes of losses of native species. In some cases, however, non‐natives may also have positive effects on native species. We investigated the potential facilitative effects of the North American red swamp crayfish (Procambarus clarkii) on the community of predators in southwestern Spain. To do so, we examined the diets of predators in the area and their population trends since introduction of the crayfish. Most predator species consumed red swamp crayfish, which sometimes occurred in over 50% of their diet samples. Moreover, the abundance of species preying on crayfish increased significantly in the area as opposed to the abundance of herbivores and to predator populations in other areas of Europe, where those predators are even considered threatened. Thus, we report the first case in which one non‐native species is both beneficial because it provides prey for threatened species and detrimental because it can drive species at lower trophic levels to extinction. Increases in predator numbers that are associated with non‐native species of prey, especially when some of these predators are also invasive non‐natives, may increase levels of predation on other species and produce cascading effects that threaten native biota at longer temporal and larger spatial scales. Future management plans should include the complexity of interactions between invasive non‐natives and the entire native community, the feasibility of successful removal of non‐native species, and the potential social and economic interests in the area.     

Catalyzing success in community-based conservation

Efforts to devolve rights and engage Indigenous Peoples and local communities in conservation have increased the demand for evidence of the efficacy of community-based conservation (CBC) and insights into what enables its success. We examined the human well-being and environmental outcomes of a diverse set of 128 CBC projects. Over 80% of CBC projects had some positive human well-being or environmental outcomes, although just 32% achieved positive outcomes for both (i.e., combined success). We coded 57 total national-, community-, and project-level variables and controls from this set, performed random forest classification to identify the variables most important to combined success, and calculated accumulated local effects to describe their individual influence on the probability of achieving it. The best predictors of combined success were 17 variables suggestive of various recommendations and opportunities for conservation practitioners related to national contexts, community characteristics, and the implementation of various strategies and interventions informed by existing CBC frameworks. Specifically, CBC projects had higher probabilities of combined success when they occurred in national contexts supportive of local governance, confronted challenges to collective action, promoted economic diversification, and invested in various capacity-building efforts. Our results provide important insights into how to encourage greater success in CBC.     

Threats to biodiversity from cumulative human impacts in one of North America's last wildlife frontiers

Land‐use change is the largest proximate threat to biodiversity yet remains one of the most complex to manage. In British Columbia (BC), where large mammals roam extensive tracts of intact habitat, continued land‐use development is of global concern. Extant mammal diversity in BC is unrivalled in North America owing, in part, to its unique position at the intersection of alpine, boreal, and temperate biomes. Despite high conservation values, understanding of cumulative ecological impacts from human development is limited. Using cumulative‐effects‐assessment (CEA) methods, we assessed the current human footprint over 16 regional ecosystems and 7 large mammal species. Using historical and current range estimates of the mammals, we investigated impacts of human land use on species’ persistence. For ecosystems, we found that bunchgrass, coastal Douglas fir, and ponderosa pine have been subjected to over 50% land‐use conversion, and over 85% of their spatial extent has undergone either direct or estimated indirect impacts. Of the mammals we considered, wolves were the least affected by land conversion, yet all species had reduced ranges compared with historical estimates. We found evidence of a hard trade‐off between development and conservation, most clearly for mammals with large distributions and ecosystems with high levels of conversion. Rather than serve as a platform to monitor species decline, we strongly advocate these data be used to inform land‐use planning and to assess current conservation efforts. More generally, CEAs offer a robust tool to inform wildlife and habitat conservation at scale.     

Ensemble ecosystem modeling for predicting ecosystem response to predator reintroduction

Introducing a new or extirpated species to an ecosystem is risky, and managers need quantitative methods that can predict the consequences for the recipient ecosystem. Proponents of keystone predator reintroductions commonly argue that the presence of the predator will restore ecosystem function, but this has not always been the case, and mathematical modeling has an important role to play in predicting how reintroductions will likely play out. We devised an ensemble modeling method that integrates species interaction networks and dynamic community simulations and used it to describe the range of plausible consequences of 2 keystone‐predator reintroductions: wolves (Canis lupus) to Yellowstone National Park and dingoes (Canis dingo) to a national park in Australia. Although previous methods for predicting ecosystem responses to such interventions focused on predicting changes around a given equilibrium, we used Lotka–Volterra equations to predict changing abundances through time. We applied our method to interaction networks for wolves in Yellowstone National Park and for dingoes in Australia. Our model replicated the observed dynamics in Yellowstone National Park and produced a larger range of potential outcomes for the dingo network. However, we also found that changes in small vertebrates or invertebrates gave a good indication about the potential future state of the system. Our method allowed us to predict when the systems were far from equilibrium. Our results showed that the method can also be used to predict which species may increase or decrease following a reintroduction and can identify species that are important to monitor (i.e., species whose changes in abundance give extra insight into broad changes in the system). Ensemble ecosystem modeling can also be applied to assess the ecosystem‐wide implications of other types of interventions including assisted migration, biocontrol, and invasive species eradication.     

Meta‐Analysis of the Effects of Forest Fragmentation on Interspecific Interactions

Forest fragmentation dramatically alters species persistence and distribution and affects many ecological interactions among species. Recent studies suggest that mutualisms, such as pollination and seed dispersal, are more sensitive to the negative effects of forest fragmentation than antagonisms, such as predation or herbivory. We applied meta‐analytical techniques to evaluate this hypothesis and quantified the relative contributions of different components of the fragmentation process (decreases in fragment size, edge effects, increased isolation, and habitat degradation) to the overall effect. The effects of fragmentation on mutualisms were primarily driven by habitat degradation, edge effects, and fragment isolation, and, as predicted, they were consistently more negative on mutualisms than on antagonisms. For the most studied interaction type, seed dispersal, only certain components of fragmentation had significant (edge effects) or marginally significant (fragment size) effects. Seed size modulated the effect of fragmentation: species with large seeds showed stronger negative impacts of fragmentation via reduced dispersal rates. Our results reveal that different components of the habitat fragmentation process have varying impacts on key mutualisms. We also conclude that antagonistic interactions have been understudied in fragmented landscapes, most of the research has concentrated on particular types of mutualistic interactions such as seed dispersal, and that available studies of interspecific interactions have a strong geographical bias (arising mostly from studies carried out in Brazil, Chile, and the United States). Meta‐Análisis de los Efectos de la Fragmentación del Bosque sobre las Interacciones Interespecíficas     

Effects of Multiple Levels of Social Organization on Survival and Abundance

Abstract: Identifying how social organization shapes individual behavior, survival, and fecundity of animals that live in groups can inform conservation efforts and improve forecasts of population abundance, even when the mechanism responsible for group‐level differences is unknown. We constructed a hierarchical Bayesian model to quantify the relative variability in survival rates among different levels of social organization (matrilines and pods) of an endangered population of killer whales (Orcinus orca). Individual killer whales often participate in group activities such as prey sharing and cooperative hunting. The estimated age‐specific survival probabilities and survivorship curves differed considerably among pods and to a lesser extent among matrilines (within pods). Across all pods, males had lower life expectancy than females. Differences in survival between pods may be caused by a combination of factors that vary across the population's range, including reduced prey availability, contaminants in prey, and human activity. Our modeling approach could be applied to demographic rates for other species and for parameters other than survival, including reproduction, prey selection, movement, and detection probabilities.     

Regional Ontogeny of New England Salt Marsh Die‐Off

Coastal areas are among the world's most productive and highly affected ecosystems. Centuries of human activity on coastlines have led to overexploitation of marine predators, which in turn has led to cascading ecosystem‐level effects. Human effects and approaches to mediating them, however, differ regionally due to gradients in biotic and abiotic factors. Salt marsh die‐off on Cape Cod, Massachusetts (U.S.A.), triggered by a recreational‐fishing‐induced trophic cascade that has released herbivorous crabs from predator control, has been ongoing since 1976. Similar salt marsh die‐offs have been reported in Long Island Sound and Narragansett Bay (U.S.A.), but the driving mechanism of these die‐offs has not been examined. We used field experiments to assess trophic interactions and historical reconstructions of 24 New England marshes to test the hypotheses that recreational fishing and predator depletion are a regional trigger of salt marsh die‐off in New England and that die‐offs in Long Island Sound and Narragansett Bay are more recent than those on Cape Cod. Predator depletion was the general trigger of marsh die‐off and explained differences in herbivorous crab abundance and the severity of die‐off across regions. Die‐offs in Long Island Sound and Narragansett Bay are following a trajectory similar to die‐off on Cape Cod, but are approximately 20 years behind those on Cape Cod. As a result, die‐off currently affects 31.2% (SE 2.2) of low‐marsh areas in Long Island Sound and Narragansett Bay, less than half the severity of die‐off on Cape Cod. Our results contribute to the growing evidence that recreational fishing is an increasing threat to coastal ecosystems and that studying the effects of human activity at regional scales can provide insight into local effects and aid in early detection and potential remediation. Ontogenia Regional de un Incremento en la Mortandad en una Marisma Salada de Nueva Inglaterra