城镇化与工业化对能源强度影响的实证研究——基于截面相关和异质性回归系数的非平衡面板数据模型

城镇化、工业化对中国能源强度的影响如何?如何在快速推进城镇化、工业化进程的同时确保节能减排目标的实现?论文以能源强度指标代替传统的能源消费指标来反映能源综合利用效率,并应用考虑截面相关性和异质性回归系数的非平衡面板数据模型,使用共同相关效应组均值(CCEMG)估计方法对中国1978-2014年城镇化、工业化与能源强度之间的关系进行分析。研究结果表明:人均实际GDP增长1%,能源强度将会降低0.412%,工业化水平增长1%,能源强度将会上升0.630%,而由于生产消费等经济活动的增加、高度集中化以及规模经济的综合作用,使得城镇化对能源强度的影响并不确定。联系研究结论,本文提出政策建议:我国应加快产业结构升级,转变经济增长方式;构建绿色制造体系,推进"五化"协同发展;推进绿色、循环、低碳发展的新型城镇化建设,提高城镇化质量,提升我国整体的能源效率,确保节能减排目标的实现,推动经济全面、协调、可持续发展。     

家庭部门生活能源消费碳排放:测度与驱动因素研究

本文运用IPCC的二氧化碳排放量测算方法,在省际层面测度了我国家庭部门直接能源消费碳排放,并基于扩展的STIRPAT和Kaya模型,构建家庭部门直接能源消费碳排放影响因子动态面板数据模型,对我国2003-2012年分省面板数据样本及城乡子样本进行系统GMM估计。本文研究表明,第一,我国城乡家庭部门碳排放总量和人均碳排放在近十年都呈快速上升趋势,家庭部门碳排放的空间分布具有明显的地域差异特征,高碳排放地区主要集中在东、中部地区,西部地区的碳排放水平较低;第二,城乡家庭部门生活能源消费的上期碳排放量对本期碳排放产生重要的正向影响,这反映出我国家庭部门碳排放具有显著的惯性特征和路径依赖性,是一种动态自适应机制;人口规模、居民消费水平、能源消费结构、碳排放强度、能源消费强度和城镇化因素,都对我国居民能源消费碳排放总量及人均碳排放具有显著的影响,城乡之间的家庭能源消费碳排放驱动因素存在差异。本文研究得到如下启示及政策含义:家庭部门碳减排将是一个有步骤、分区域的渐进过程,我国碳减排政策应当兼顾消费升级和碳排放的双重目标,努力构建分层次碳减排的适应性预期机制。具体而言,一方面应着眼于引导和激励居民低碳消费,缓解人口规模增加、消费水平提升和城镇化对家庭部门碳减排的压力;另一方面要通过能源价格改革、财政政策和环境规制政策等优化我国能源消费结构,不断降低煤炭消费比重,提高清洁能源的消费。同时,通过技术创新、设备改造等科技手段提高煤炭利用效率,降低碳排放强度,这些政策将更有利于城镇家庭部门碳减排。     

Rebound effect and its decomposition – an analysis based on energy types in China

Rebound effect derived from energy efficiency improvement has been widely invested. However, most of studies focus on the rebound effect of the energy composite level and neither distinguish nor compare different energy types. We compare the differences in energy saving and energy rebound between primary and secondary energy sources, and further decompose the rebound effect into production rebound part and final demand component. To do so, we add a module for rebound into a comparative state China-CGE model. We design and test two simulation scenarios using the model. In Scenario 1, all production sectors’ energy efficiency of using primary energy increases by 5%. In Scenario 2, all production sectors’ energy efficiency of using secondary energy increases by 5%. The results show that Scenario 2 leads to more GDP growth and more energy saving. Our scenarios show rebound effects range between 9.6% and 27.9%, and in general are higher when energy efficiency of using primary energy sources is improved. Our decomposition analysis shows that improving energy efficiency in production sectors would stimulates energy use of final demand. Indeed, the consumption side has significant contribution to rebound in secondary energy use, especially in crude oil and gas. This study reveals that improving efficiency of using secondary energy is better than improving that of primary energy, both in terms of economic impact and energy rebound. And complementary policies that prevent energy services prices from falling too much can be adopted to reduce rebound. Controlling residential energy use could also be effective in reducing rebound, this has particular implication to economies in which residential energy consumption are far from saturation.     

Global trends and development of energy services industry in China

Energy service is an effective way to promote energy conservation by market mechanisms, including energy saving services, energy procurement, supply of many varieties of energy, supply of renewable energy technologies, energy-related consulting services, risk management, etc. China is a major energy consumer but energy is in short supply, and the efficiency of energy use is low. China’s energy service industry has expanded rapidly, in terms of both the number of new Energy Service Companies entering the market and amount of capital invested in Energy Performance Contracting projects, but the energy service sector in China is still at an early stage of development. Developed countries began early in developing the energy service sector and their energy service market is mature, and the experience of developed countries shows that energy services play a significant role in advancing energy saving and emission reduction. Under the new situation, China needs combine energy services experience of developed countries, and take following measures to accelerate China’s energy services rapid and healthy development, including the long-term aspects of policy planning, energy-saving core technology, finance and capital investment, public sector reductions, personnel training, and so on.     

The influence of Chinese population policy change on resources and the environment

Universal two-child policy has been implemented since the end of 2015 in China. This policy is anticipated to bring a significant increase in the total population, with profound influences on the resources and environment in the future. This paper analyzes the changing dynamics of urban and rural population, and forecasts urban and rural population from 2016 to 2030 at national and provincial scale using a double log linear regression model. Drawing upon the results of these two predictions, the impact of the population policy change on Chinese resources consumption and environmental pollution are predicted quantitatively. Given the future total population maintains current levels on resources consumption and environmental emission, the additional demand of resources and environment demand for the new population is forecasted and compared against the capacity on supply side. The findings are as follows: after implementing the universal two-child policy, China’s grain, energy consumption, domestic water demand, and pollutant emissions are projected to increase at different rates across provinces. To meet the needs arising from future population growth, food and energy self-sufficiency rate will be significantly reduced in the future, while relying more on imports. Stability of the water supply needs to be improved, especially in Beijing, Henan, Jiangsu, Qinghai, and Sichuan where the gap in future domestic water demand is comparatively larger. Environmental protection and associated governing capability are in urgent need of upgrade not least due to the increasing pressure of pollution.     

Reconstituting “America”: The Clean Energy Economy Ventriloquized

With the foregrounding of “clean energy” policies by climate change concerns, the rhetorical constitution of “America” as a collective subject, mobilized to adopt the clean energy economy (CEE), becomes crucial. Here, I analyze the constitutive rhetoric of Pew Charitable Trusts’ landmark 2009 report on the CEE, drawing from the ventriloqual perspective to communication. I argue that this approach provides a more pragmatic, conversational understanding of the interpellative process constituting “America,” noting it to be hybridized and composed of various human and nonhuman agents. Tracing the ingoing interaction among agents—some manifest in the text, others spectral—sheds light on the complex relations of power at stake, recognizes the open-ended possibilities (and restrictions) of agency, and the role of material structures shaping environmental communication and policy.     

Environmentally compatible energy resource production—consumption pattern (case study: Iran)

Like all rapidly developing countries, the government of Iran (GOI) has to integrate environment priorities into its energy sector. In order to integrate environmental concerns into energy sector, an Energy-Environment Review (EER) may be considered as the mainstreaming tool capable of examining the interface between energy and the environment. The results of the EER should be interpreted, in the light of the objective of the 4th Five Year Development Plan in Iran, to achieve fast and sustainable growth and accelerate the transition to a market economy. In particular, the suggested actions will promote economic efficiency use of energy resources through a proper allocation of scarce resources, including environmental resources, so as to achieve economic efficiency and environmental and social protection. This paper comprises: (A) an analysis of the current situation with regards to energy production and consumption; (B) an evaluation of the growth prospects with regard to energy production and consumption; (C) the identification of environmental issues induced by the generation and use of energy and estimation of the associated costs of damages; (D) the evaluation of the extent of contribution to the climate-change phenomenon through emission of greenhouse gases; (E) the evaluation of the proposed mitigation measures for the previously identified environmental problems; and (F) conclusions and recommendations. The EER-Iran assessed the total health damage from air pollution in 2001 at about 56  ×  10¹² Rials (US $ seven billion); equivalent to 8.4% of nominal GDP. In the absence of the price reform and control policies, the EER-Iran estimated that the damage in Iran in the money of 2001, will grow to 155  ×  10¹² Rials (US $ nine billion) by 2019. This is equivalent to 10.9% of nominal GDP, i.e., a large percentage of a larger GDP. Of this total, 107  ×  10¹² Rials (US $ 8.4 billion) come from transport sector. The damage cost to the global environment from the flaring of natural gas, assessed on the basis of a carbon price of US $ 10/ton CO₂, is found to be approximately US $ 600 million per year. Readers should send their comments on this paper to: BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue.     

An assessment of indoor air quality in recent Mexican immigrant housing in Commerce City, Colorado

An indoor air quality assessment was conducted on 100 homes of recent Mexican immigrants in Commerce City, Colorado, an urban industrial community north of Denver. Head of households were administered a family health survey, filled out an activity diary, and participated in a home inspection. Carbon monoxide (CO) and carbon dioxide (CO₂) were measured for 24 h inside the main living area and outside of the homes. Harvard Impactors were used to collect 24-h samples of PM_2.5 at the same locations for gravimetric analysis. Dust samples were collected by vacuuming carpeting and flooring at four locations within the home and analyzed by ELISA for seven allergens. Mean indoor and outdoor PM_2.5 levels were 27.2 and 8.5 μg m⁻³, respectively. Indoor PM_2.5 and CO₂ were elevated in homes for which the number of hours with door/window open was zero compared to homes in which the number of hours was high (>15 h). Indoor PM_2.5 levels did not correlate with outdoor levels and tended to increase with number of inhabitants, and results indicate that the source of indoor particles were occupants and their activities, excluding smoking and cooking. Mean indoor CO₂ and CO levels were 1170 and 2.4 ppm, respectively. Carbon monoxide was higher than the 24-h National Ambient Air Quality Standard in 3 of the homes. The predominant allergens were cat (Fel d 1) and mouse (Mus m 1) allergens, found in 20 and 34 homes, respectively.     

Commuting lives: children's mobility and energy use

Globally, the issue of energy use and climate change is at the forefront of many national and international agendas, and also an issue central to children's lives and well-being. This paper examines how children are both affected by and contribute to the problems associated with unsustainable energy use as it relates to the growth of car dependent lives. The paper presents the findings of a study of travel as it relates to the everyday lives of children in the city of Dunedin in New Zealand. The study found that children currently lead complex car dependent lives. This extensive car reliance presents a serious and largely unrecognised challenge to the sustainable planning and management of the urban environment. The move towards more sustainable transportation can bring benefits for both the environment and for children's lives.     

Spatial distribution of uranium and thorium in the surface soil around proposed uranium mining site at Lambapur and its vertical profile in the Nagarjuna Sagar Dam

The understanding and evaluation of the possible interactions of various naturally occurring radionuclides in the world's third largest man-made dam, Nagarjuna Sagar located in Andhra Pradesh, India and built on river Krishna assumed significance with the finding of uranium deposits in locations near the dam. For the present work, surface soil samples from the mineralized area of Lambapur, Mallapuram, Peddagattu and sediment core samples from the Nagarjuna Sagar dam were analyzed for naturally occurring radionuclides namely uranium and thorium using gamma spectrometric technique. Also toxic elements lead and chromium were analysed by the Energy Dispersive X-ray Fluorescence Spectrometer (EDXRF) technique. Surface soil samples show a variation from 25 to 291 Bq/kg (2.02–23.5 mg/kg) for ²³⁸U and 32–311 Bq/kg (7.9–76.9 mg/kg) for ²³²Th. U/Th concentration ratio in surface soil samples ranged from 0.19 to 0.31 and was found comparable with the nation wise average of 0.26. The study of sediment core samples reflected higher U/Th concentration ratio of 0.30–0.33 in the bottom section of the core as compared to 0.22–0.25 in the upper section. The concentration ratio in the upper section of the core was similar to the ratio 0.23 found in the western Deccan Basalt region through which the river originates. A higher concentration of lead and chromium was observed in the upper section of the core compared to bottom section indicating the impact of river input on the geochemical character of dam sediment.