Negotiating environmental agreements under ratification constraints

We analyze the impact of ratification constraints on the optimal terms of international environmental agreements (IEAs). For this, we combine the literature on IEAs with the public choice literature on two-level games. By also incorporating uncertain preferences of the pivotal voter in the ratification stage, we make several important contributions: (i) we contribute to a more realistic modeling of the temporal structure of international agreements, (ii) we show a surprising, yet intuitive non-monotonic relationship between the optimal commitment level and the variance of ratification decisions, (iii) we identify reasons to expect a larger number of countries to join international negotiations than predicted by most of the coalition formation literature based on a representative agent model. Ratification constraints thereby can improve the welfare gains from stable international agreements.     

Fuzzy experts on recreational vessels, a risk modelling approach for marine invasions

Understanding risks from the human-mediated spread of non-indigenous species (NIS) is a critical component of marine biosecurity management programmes. Recreational boating is well-recognised as a NIS pathway, especially at a regional scale. Assessment of risks from this pathway is therefore desirable for coastal environments where recreational boating occurs. However, formal or quantitative risk assessment for the recreational vessel pathway is often hampered by lack of data, hence often relies on expert opinion. The use of expert opinion itself is sometimes limited by its inherent vagueness, which can be an important source of uncertainty that reduces the validity and applicability of the assessment. Fuzzy logic, specifically interval type-2 fuzzy logic, is able to model and propagate this type of uncertainty, and is a useful technique in risk assessment where expert opinion is relied upon. The present paper describes the implementation of a NIS fuzzy expert system (FES) for assessing the risk of invasion in marine environments via recreational vessels. The FES was based on expert opinion gathered through systematic elicitation exercises, designed to acknowledge important uncertainty sources (e.g., underspecificity and ambiguity). The FES, using interval type-2 fuzzy logic, calculated an invasion risk value (integrating NIS infection and detection probabilities) for a range of invasion scenarios. These scenarios were defined by all possible combinations of two vessel types (moored and trailered), five vessel components (hull, deck, internal spaces, anchor, fishing gear), two infection modes (fouling, water/sediment retention) and six frequently visited marine habitats (marina, mooring, farm, ramp, wharf, anchorage). Although invasion risk values determined using the FES approach was scenario-specific, general patterns were identified. Moored vessels consistently showed higher invasion risk values than trailered vessels. Invasion risk values were higher for anchorages, moorings and wharves. Similarly, hull-fouling was revealed as the highest infection risk mode after pooling results across all habitats. The NIS fuzzy expert system presented here appears as a valuable prioritising and decision-making tool for NIS research, prevention and control activities. Its easy implementation and wide applicability should encourage the development and application of this type of system as an integral part of biosecurity, and other environmental management plans.     

驾驶员风险认知能力对交通安全的影响

为辨别不同驾驶员风险认知能力对驾驶安全的影响。通过设置13种存在潜在风险的交通情景,引入惩罚用时机制,利用驾驶模拟器,对熟练驾驶员和非熟练驾驶员在风险认知培训前后的风险认知能力进行比较,找出不同驾驶员对风险认知的差异。试验结果显示,熟练驾驶员的风险认知能力比非熟练驾驶员要高,两者在引起交通风险的因素上是不同的,培训后的风险认知能力较之前有很大提高。培训能够拓宽驾驶员对潜在风险的认知程度,更好地将驾驶员的操作技能、知识体系和外在行为衔接在一起,从而减少交通事故的发生。     

Greening Leviathan: the rise of the environmental state?

‘Bringing the state back in’ to research on comparative, inter-, and trans-national environmental politics and policy will contribute to better understanding of the limits and prospects of contemporary approaches to environmental politics and the overall evolution of contemporary states once environmental issues become central. The rationale for the state as an analytical perspective in environmental policy and politics is explained, and an empirically oriented concept of the environmental state is introduced, along with a tentative sketch of its evolution in historical perspective. A research agenda on the environmental state is mapped out, centring around variation and convergence in environmental states across space and time; the political/economic dynamics of contemporary environmental states; and inter-linkages among environmental problems, the constitution of political communities, and the functioning of the public power. In conclusion, the ways in which the contributions to this volume address that research agenda are introduced.     

Quantifying population declines based on presence‐only records for red‐list assessments

Accurate trend estimates are necessary for understanding which species are declining and which are most in need of conservation action. Imperfect species detection may result in unreliable trend estimates because this may lead to the overestimation of declines. Because many management decisions are based on population trend estimates, such biases could have severe consequences for conservation policy. We used an occupancy‐modeling framework to estimate detectability and calculate nationwide population trends for 14 Swiss amphibian species both accounting for and ignoring imperfect detection. Through the application of International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List criteria to the different trend estimates, we assessed whether ignoring imperfect detection could affect conservation policy. Imperfect detection occurred for all species and detection varied substantially among species, which led to the overestimation of population declines when detectability was ignored. Consequently, accounting for imperfect detection lowered the red‐list risk category for 5 of the 14 species assessed. We demonstrate that failing to consider species detectability can have serious consequences for species management and that occupancy modeling provides a flexible framework to account for observation bias and improve assessments of conservation status. A problem inherent to most historical records is that they contain presence‐only data from which only relative declines can be estimated. A move toward the routine recording of nonobservation and absence data is essential if conservation practitioners are to move beyond this toward accurate population trend estimation.     

广州市环境监测管理信息化建设中若干问题探讨

以广州市环境监测中心站推进信息化的实践为例，重点对环境监测管理信息化规划、开发和应用3个环节所涉及的信息化进程路线、应用系统开发的需求分析和推广应用等问题进行了一些探讨，提出切合自身的解决思路或办法。     

某货车侧翻水污染事件的环境损害评估方法探索

随着我国进入突发水污染事件高发期,面临的水环境形势日益严峻.为了震慑环境污染行为,保证受损的环境资源得到恢复和补偿,量化突发性水污染事件造成的经济损失显得至关重要.本文以重庆市某货车侧翻污染事件为例,构建了一套突发水污染事件环境损害的量化评估方法,并用该方法从财产损害、生态环境资源损害、应急处置行政事务投入费用和调查评估费用这4个方面量化了该事件造成的环境污染损害.     

A review of public acceptance of nature-based solutions: The ‘why’, ‘when’, and ‘how’ of success for disaster risk reduction measures

Nature-based solutions (NbS) are increasingly recognized as sustainable approaches to address societal challenges. Disaster risk reduction (DRR) has benefited by moving away from purely ‘grey’ infrastructure measures towards NbS. However, this shift also furthers an increasing trend of reliance on public acceptance to plan, implement and manage DRR measures. In this review, we examine how unique NbS characteristics relate to public acceptance through a comparison with grey measures, and we identify influential acceptance factors related to individuals, society, and DRR measures. Based on the review, we introduce the PA-NbS model that highlights the role of risk perception, trust, competing societal interests, and ecosystem services. Efforts to increase acceptance should focus on providing and promoting awareness of benefits combined with effective communication and collaboration. Further research is required to understand interconnections among identified factors and how they can be leveraged for the success and further uptake of NbS.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-021-01502-4.     

重庆缙云山4种典型植被覆盖下汞的释放通量及影响因素

为了揭示不同植被覆盖下土壤/大气界面释汞通量及其交换特征,在缙云山国家级自然保护区内选择4种典型植被覆盖类型(常绿阔叶林、楠竹林、灌木林以及草地)为研究对象,连续同步监测不同植被覆盖下土/气界面汞释放通量,同时考察各环境因子对土壤释汞的影响.结果表明,缙云山在4种不同植被覆盖下土壤汞释放通量具有明显的差异,总体表现为楠竹林[17.77 ng·(m~2·h)~(-1)]草地[17.58 ng·(m~2·h)~(-1)]灌木林[16.87 ng·(m~2·h)~(-1)]常绿阔叶林[14.32 ng·(m~2·h)~(-1)];不同植被覆盖下土壤释汞通量在季节变化上呈现相似的规律性,但不同植被覆盖类型之间也存在明显差异,主要体现在暖季汞释放通量高于冷季;缙云山地区不同林植被覆盖下土壤释汞通量存在明显的日变化;气象因素光照强度、气温、土温和相对湿度,对土/气界面汞释放通量影响也不相同,气温为常绿阔叶林,灌木林与楠竹林的主要影响因子,光照强度为草地的主要影响因子.     

北京市地下水中典型抗生素分布特征与潜在风险

应用气相色谱与质谱联用仪分析了北京市地下水内磺胺类(SAs)、氟喹诺酮类(FQs)、四环素类(TCs)、β-内酰胺类和大环内酯类等5大类抗生素.结果表明,北京地下水抗生素以SAs、FQs和TCs等3类为主,检出率分别为78.9%、100%和47.3%,其中甲氧苄氨嘧啶(TMP)、环丙沙星(CIP)和诺氟沙星(NOR)检出率均在70%以上.污灌区地下水样点抗生素浓度显著高于水源地和南水回灌区样点,磺胺二甲嘧啶(SDD)和磺胺嘧啶(SDZ)在污灌区检出峰值达到236 ng·L-1和96.8ng·L-1.生态风险评价结果表明,研究区地下水抗生素污染风险较小,但在污灌区显示中等或高等风险等级.CIP应作为研究区地下水抗生素监测中的重点监测对象.