山岭隧道施工中塌方风险评估模型研究及应用

为评估隧道施工中塌方风险,以确定其可能性及严重程度作为2条主线。由文献调研并结合待评估隧道风险特征、施工现状、工程概况等建立塌方可能性评估指标体系,运用层次分析法(AHP)与多层次模糊综合决策确定塌方风险事件可能性等级,定性指标由专家评判确定对各可能性等级的隶属度,定量指标的隶属度以正态分布作为隶属函数求出;综合考虑多种事故后果类型,选用当量估计法确定塌方风险事件严重程度;最后基于风险矩阵法确定隧道塌方风险等级。将本模型应用于兴隆隧道1号斜井,经评估该斜井塌方风险等级为Ⅲ级,即较大风险,后续施工中须采取有效措施降低风险,减少风险可能导致的损失。     

Spatial statistics for modeling of abundance and distribution of wildlife species in the Masai Mara ecosystem, Kenya

This study illustrates the use of modern statistical procedures for better wildlife management by addressing three key issues: determination of abundance, modeling of animal distributions and variability of diversity in space and time. Prior information in Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods is used to improve estimates of abundance. Measures of autocorrelation are included when modeling distributions of animal counts, and a diversity index to indicate species abundance and richness for large herbivores is developed. Data from the Masai Mara ecosystem in Kenya are used to develop and demonstrate these procedures. The new abundance estimates are up to 35% more accurate than those obtained by existing methods. Significant temporal changes in spatial patterns are found from a space-time analysis of elephant counts over a 20-year period, with strong interactions over 5 km and 6 months space and time separations, respectively. The new diversity index is sensitive to both high abundance and species richness and is also able to capture year to year variation. It indicates an overall marginal decrease in diversity for large herbivores in the Mara ecosystem. The space-time analyses and diversity index can easily be computed thereby providing tools for rapid decision making.     

Continuous dose-response modeling and risk analysis with the gamma and reciprocal gamma distributions

Kodell and West (1993) describe two methods for calculating pointwise upper confidence limits on the risk function with normally distributed responses and using a certain definition of adverse quantitative effect. But Banga et al. (2000) have shown that these normal theory methods break down when applied to skew data. We accordingly develop a risk analysis model and associated likelihood-based methodology when the response follows either a gamma or reciprocal gamma distribution. The model supposes that the shape (index) parameter k of the response distribution is held fixed while the logarithm of the scale parameter is a linear model in terms of the dose level. Existence and uniqueness of the maximum likelihood estimates is established. Asymptotic likelihood-based upper and lower confidence limits on the risk are solutions of the Lagrange equations associated with a constrained optimization problem. Starting values for an iterative solution are obtained by replacing the Lagrange equations by the lowest order terms in their asymptotic expansions. Three methods are then compared for calculating confidence limits on the risk: (i) the aforementioned starting values (LRAL method), (ii) full iterative solution of the Lagrange equations (LREL method), and (iii) bounds obtained using approximate normality of the maximum likelihood estimates with standard errors derived from the information matrix (MLE method). Simulation is used to assess coverage probabilities for the resulting upper confidence limits when the log of the scale parameter is quadratic in the dose level. Results indicate that coverage for the MLE method can be off by as much as 15% points and converges very slowly to nominal coverage levels as the sample size increases. Coverage for the LRAL and LREL methods, on the other hand, is close to nominal levels unless (a) the sample size is small, say N < 25, (b) the index parameter is small, say k 1, and (c) the direction of adversity is to the left for the gamma distribution or to the right for the reciprocal gamma distribution.     

Species abundance estimation using point-to-plant sampling in a design-based setting

A new species abundance estimator is proposed when point-to-plant sampling is adopted in a design-based framework. The method is based on the relationship between each species abundance and the probability density function of the relative squared point-to-plant distance. Using this result, a kernel estimator for species abundance is provided and the nearest neighbor method is suggested for bandwidth selection. The proposed estimator requires no assumptions about the species point patterns nor corrections for sampling near the edges of the study region. Moreover, the estimator shows suitable statistical properties as well as good practical performance as is shown in a simulation study.     

Adaptive two-stage one-per-stratum sampling

We briefly describe adaptive cluster sampling designs in which the initial sample is taken according to a Markov chain one-per-stratum design (Breidt, 1995) and one or more secondary samples are taken within strata if units in the initial sample satisfy a given condition C. An empirical study of the behavior of the estimation procedure is conducted for three small artificial populations for which adaptive sampling is appropriate. The specific sampling strategy used in the empirical study was a single random-start systematic sample with predefined systematic samples within strata when the initially sampled unit in that stratum satisfies C. The bias of the Horvitz-Thompson estimator for this design is usually very small when adaptive sampling is conducted in a population for which it is suited. In addition, we compare the behavior of several alternative estimators of the standard error of the Horvitz-Thompson estimator of the population total. The best estimator of the standard error is population-dependent but it is not unreasonable to use the Horvitz-Thompson estimator of the variance. Unfortunately, the distribution of the estimator is highly skewed hence the usual approach of constructing confidence intervals assuming normality cannot be used here.     

Odour from municipal solid waste (MSW) landfills: a study on the analysis of perception

The objective of this work was to develop a relationship between odour intensity and odour concentration by using data collected from various sensitive areas of the municipal solid waste (MSW) landfill site. A number of well-known psychophysical models (e.g., Weber-Fechner law, Steven's power law, Beidler's and Laffort's models) have been discussed that can successfully relate the perceived intensity with the odour concentration. Respective parameters for each of the models were estimated by the nonlinear Levenburg-Marquardt parameter estimation method. The overall performance of the model was tested statistically against sets of data from the olfactometry analysis. The model based on the Weber-Fechner law was ranked 1 in case of five out of nine samples and it has been found more representative of the less intense odour samples. The model based on Laffort's equation has represented the intensity-concentration relationship better with extremely low uncertainties on both parameters k1 and k2 for comparatively more intense odour samples.     

正辛醇/水分配系数的测定及估算方法

介绍了正辛醇/水分配系数的测定和估算方法。将现有的测定方法分成直接法和间接测定法进行了介绍和评价。直接法主要介绍了摇瓶法、两相滴定法和萃取法;间接法主要介绍了产生柱法和色谱法。给出了不同测定方法的使用范围及其局限性。在估算方法介绍中,将现有的辛醇/水分配系数的估算方法按其对溶质的处理方法不同分为两大类进行了介绍,一类是以整个分子为研究对象的分子法,如摩尔体积法;另一类是根据分子的结构信息进行估算的结构性能法,如分子连接性指数法,基因贡献法。介绍了现有基团贡献法如Leo碎片常数法、Meylan和Howard的AFC基因贡献法、三水平基团贡献法、基团贡献溶剂化模型法、UNIFAC基团贡献法的优缺点及其使用局限性。提出了估算方法的发展方向。     

Rapid determination of residues of pesticides in honey by µGC-ECD and GC-MS/MS: Method validation and estimation of measurement uncertainty according to document No. SANCO/12571/2013

A simple and straightforward method for simultaneous determination of residues of 13 pesticides in honey samples (acrinathrin, bifenthrin, bromopropylate, cyhalothrin-lambda, cypermethrin, chlorfenvinphos, chlorpyrifos, coumaphos, deltamethrin, fluvalinate-tau, malathion, permethrin and tetradifon) from different pesticide classes has been developed and validated. The analytical method provides dissolution of honey in water and an extraction of pesticide residues by n-Hexane followed by clean-up on a Florisil SPE column. The extract was evaporated and taken up by a solution of an injection internal standard (I-IS), ethion, and finally analyzed by capillary gas chromatography with electron capture detection (GC-µECD). Identification for qualitative purpose was conducted by gas chromatography with triple quadrupole mass spectrometer (GC-MS/MS). A matrix-matched calibration curve was performed for quantitative purposes by plotting the area ratio (analyte/I-IS) against concentration using a GC-µECD instrument. According to document No. SANCO/12571/2013, the method was validated by testing the following parameters: linearity, matrix effect, specificity, precision, trueness (bias) and measurement uncertainty. The analytical process was validated analyzing blank honey samples spiked at levels equal to and greater than 0.010 mg/kg (limit of quantification). All parameters were satisfactorily compared with the values established by document No. SANCO/12571/2013. The analytical performance was verified by participating in eight multi-residue proficiency tests organized by BIPEA, obtaining satisfactory z-scores in all 70 determinations. Measurement uncertainty was estimated according to the top-down approaches described in Appendix C of the SANCO document using the within-laboratory reproducibility relative standard deviation combined with laboratory bias using the proficiency test data.     

基于资源安全的企业人才风险管理

从资源安全的角度出发 ,笔者阐述了企业人才资源的重要性 ;对我国企业目前面临的主要人才风险进行了识别 ;指出我国企业目前的人才风险主要来自人才外流、人才获取、人才道德和人才风险意识四个方面 ;强调了我国企业加强人才风险管理的重要意义。从人才风险引起的各项损失及其损失概率的角度 ,提出了企业进行人才风险估测的方法 ;建立了人才风险损失模型 ;指出了我国企业的人才风险管理、有效防范人才风险的途径。     

A new approach to estimation of methane emission rates from landfills

Methane emission monitoring has become increasingly essential for diffusive area sources, especially for landfills, which contribute to a significant fraction of the total anthropogenic methane emission globally. Statutorily, methane emission rate from landfills in Germany shall be examined on a semiannual basis; however, an appropriate approach has yet to be developed and adopted for general use. In this study, a new method is proposed based on experimental results, which utilizes a TDLAS (Tunable Diode Laser Absorption Spectroscopy) instrument – GasFinder2.0® system and a dispersion model LASAT (Lagrangian Simulation of Aerosol Transport) as the measurement device and calculation model, respectively. Between April 2010 and December 2011, a research project was conducted at a pilot scale landfill in the south of Germany. Drawing on the extensive research into this pilot project, an effective strategy of measurement setup was determined. Methane concentration was measured with GasFinder2.0® system in the upstream and downstream sections of the project site, while wind and turbulence data were measured simultaneously by an ultrasonic anemometer. The average methane emission rate from the source can be calculated by using the results as input data in the dispersion model. With this method, site-specific measurement approaches can be designed for not only landfills, but also different diffusive area sources with less workload and lower cost compared to conventional FID (Flame Ionization Detector) method.