Comparison of data from two vegetation monitoring methods in semi-natural grasslands

Two vegetation-monitoring methods were compared: subplot frequency analysis (SF) and visual estimation of percentage cover (VE). Two independent observers collected data from two semi-natural, species-rich grasslands on three different occasions during the growth-season. During the last data collection period, survey times were also recorded. The two different data sets from the two methods were compared using partial Redundancy Analyses. The purpose of the comparison was to identify the method that explains most of the relevant variation in biodiversity-monitoring (inter-and intra-site variation), and the variation irrelevant when evaluating data (systematic inter-observer variation and variation due to phenological changes). Compared with VE data, more variation in SF data could be explained by spatial variables, while less variation depended on the observer and time of year surveyed. SF also found more species per plot but took on average five times longer to complete than VE. In conclusion, the different methods are suitable for different purposes: SF is more suitable for purposes demanding high accuracy and high precision, such as long-term biodiversity-monitoring when the identification of small changes has high priority, while VE might be more suitable for a one-time mapping of a large area.     

南四湖港口污染物扩散区COD降解系数的研究

本文对南四湖港口污染物扩散区内的ＣＯＤ降解规律进行了室内模拟试验研究，采用最小二乘法估计出了ＣＯＤ可降解部分的降解系数和不可降解部分的百分比，并通过方差分析验证了模型的可靠性。ＣＯＤ降解系数和不可降解百分比的获取，可以为预测各港口对南四湖水质变化趋势的影响，为制定相应的水污染防治规划和措施，提供了重要的基础数据。     

山岭隧道施工中塌方风险评估模型研究及应用

为评估隧道施工中塌方风险,以确定其可能性及严重程度作为2条主线。由文献调研并结合待评估隧道风险特征、施工现状、工程概况等建立塌方可能性评估指标体系,运用层次分析法(AHP)与多层次模糊综合决策确定塌方风险事件可能性等级,定性指标由专家评判确定对各可能性等级的隶属度,定量指标的隶属度以正态分布作为隶属函数求出;综合考虑多种事故后果类型,选用当量估计法确定塌方风险事件严重程度;最后基于风险矩阵法确定隧道塌方风险等级。将本模型应用于兴隆隧道1号斜井,经评估该斜井塌方风险等级为Ⅲ级,即较大风险,后续施工中须采取有效措施降低风险,减少风险可能导致的损失。     

Determination of plate waste in primary school lunches by weighing and visual estimation methods: A validation study

The aim of this study was to validate the visual estimation method for aggregated plate waste of main dish at Portuguese primary school canteens. For this purpose plate waste at school lunch was measured for 505 individual servings, using weighing individual servings and plate waste and visual estimation method by a 6-point scale, as developed by Comstock et al. (1981). A high variability of initial serving weights was found with serving sizes ranging from 88.9 to 283.3 g and with a coefficient of variation ranging from 5.5% to 24.7%. Mean plate waste was 27.5% according to the weighing method. There was a significant bias in the conversion of the visual waste estimations to actual waste, being overestimated by an average of 8.0 g (ranging from ?12.9 g to 41.4 g). According to Bland and Altman plot, the mean difference between methods was of 8.0 g and the amplitude interval was 102.6 g. The study showed that the visual estimation method is not as accurate as the weighing method in assessing nonselective aggregated plate waste at primary school canteens. Our findings are thus very important on considering plate waste assessment, since the wide variation on initial servings introduces a relevant bias when considering standard portions or a random sample of initial servings. Although, greater convenience, time-saving and the possibility to monitor plate waste of large groups, make the visual estimation method an important method to assess plate waste at school canteens, these results highlighted the need of portions standardization and control of initial servings to allow for its use.     

A new approach to estimation of methane emission rates from landfills

Methane emission monitoring has become increasingly essential for diffusive area sources, especially for landfills, which contribute to a significant fraction of the total anthropogenic methane emission globally. Statutorily, methane emission rate from landfills in Germany shall be examined on a semiannual basis; however, an appropriate approach has yet to be developed and adopted for general use. In this study, a new method is proposed based on experimental results, which utilizes a TDLAS (Tunable Diode Laser Absorption Spectroscopy) instrument – GasFinder2.0® system and a dispersion model LASAT (Lagrangian Simulation of Aerosol Transport) as the measurement device and calculation model, respectively. Between April 2010 and December 2011, a research project was conducted at a pilot scale landfill in the south of Germany. Drawing on the extensive research into this pilot project, an effective strategy of measurement setup was determined. Methane concentration was measured with GasFinder2.0® system in the upstream and downstream sections of the project site, while wind and turbulence data were measured simultaneously by an ultrasonic anemometer. The average methane emission rate from the source can be calculated by using the results as input data in the dispersion model. With this method, site-specific measurement approaches can be designed for not only landfills, but also different diffusive area sources with less workload and lower cost compared to conventional FID (Flame Ionization Detector) method.     

A Digital Filter for the State Estimation of Impulsive Noise Under the Existence of a Background Noise and its Experiment in the Work Environment

In the actual work environment, a specific objective noise, like machine and industrial noises, shows impulsive fluctuation form. Furthermore, it often occurs that a specific noise is partially or completely contaminated by background noise. In that case, the fluctuation wave form of the specific noise has to be estimated moment by moment in order to evaluate and/or improve the work environment. In this study, a digital filter for estimating an impulsively fluctuating specific noise is proposed. More specifically, after introducing a generalized time series regressive model of the specific noise, a method for estimating the impulsive noise based on an observation contaminated by the background noise is theoretically derived. Furthermore, the proposed method is applied to the actual task of estimating an industrial impact noise.     

A closure test for time-specific capture-recapture data

The assumption of demographic closure in the analysis of capture-recapture data under closed-population models is of fundamental importance. Yet, little progress has been made in the development of omnibus tests of the closure assumption. We present a closure test for time-specific data that, in principle, tests the null hypothesis of closed-population model M _t against the open-population Jolly-Seber model as a specific alternative. This test is chi-square, and can be decomposed into informative components that can be interpreted to determine the nature of closure violations. The test is most sensitive to permanent emigration and least sensitive to temporary emigration, and is of intermediate sensitivity to permanent or temporary immigration. This test is a versatile tool for testing the assumption of demographic closure in the analysis of capture-recapture data.     

Bayesian estimation of age-specific bird nest survival rates with categorical covariates

The populations of many North American landbirds are showing signs of declining. Gathering information on breeding productivity allows critical assessment of population performance and helps identify good habitat-management practices. He (Biometrics (2003) 59 962–973) proposed a Bayesian model to estimate the age-specific nest survival rates. The model allows irregular visiting schedule under the assumption that the observed nests have homogeneous nest survival. Because nest survival studies are often conducted in different sites and time periods, it is not realistic to assume homogeneous nest survival. In this paper, we extend He’s model by incorporating these factors as categorical covariates. The simulation results show that the Bayesian hierarchical model can produce satisfactory estimates on nest survival and capture different factor effects. Finally the model is applied to a Missouri red-winged blackbird data set.     

Specimen‐Based Modeling,Stopping Rules,and the Extinction of the Ivory‐Billed Woodpecker

Abstract: Assessing species survival status is an essential component of conservation programs. We devised a new statistical method for estimating the probability of species persistence from the temporal sequence of collection dates of museum specimens. To complement this approach, we developed quantitative stopping rules for terminating the search for missing or allegedly extinct species. These stopping rules are based on survey data for counts of co‐occurring species that are encountered in the search for a target species. We illustrate both these methods with a case study of the Ivory‐billed Woodpecker (Campephilus principalis), long assumed to have become extinct in the United States in the 1950s, but reportedly rediscovered in 2004. We analyzed the temporal pattern of the collection dates of 239 geo‐referenced museum specimens collected throughout the southeastern United States from 1853 to 1932 and estimated the probability of persistence in 2011 as <6.4 × 10^?5, with a probable extinction date no later than 1980. From an analysis of avian census data (counts of individuals) at 4 sites where searches for the woodpecker were conducted since 2004, we estimated that at most 1–3 undetected species may remain in 3 sites (one each in Louisiana, Mississippi, Florida). At a fourth site on the Congaree River (South Carolina), no singletons (species represented by one observation) remained after 15,500 counts of individual birds, indicating that the number of species already recorded (56) is unlikely to increase with additional survey effort. Collectively, these results suggest there is virtually no chance the Ivory‐billed Woodpecker is currently extant within its historical range in the southeastern United States. The results also suggest conservation resources devoted to its rediscovery and recovery could be better allocated to other species. The methods we describe for estimating species extinction dates and the probability of persistence are generally applicable to other species for which sufficient museum collections and field census results are available.     

蒸散量测定与估算方法的对比研究

以涡度相关法的实测资料为标准,对波文比-能量平衡法、空气动力学法、Penman-Monteith模型、Shuttleworth-Wallace模型进行对比研究,并分析了各种方法的精度和灵敏度。结果表明:Penman-Monteith模型和波文比-能量平衡法的精度最高,Shuttleworth-Wallace模型和空气动力学法的精度较差。Penman-Monteith模型的稳定性较好,波文比-能量平衡法受Δe和ΔT观测精度的影响大,风温湿观测高度以及下垫面是否均一对空气动力学法影响较大,Shuttleworth-Wallace模型对各类阻抗较为敏感。