中国沉积物多环芳烃的时空分布及驱动因子

根据2000～2020年中国湖泊、河流和河口沉积物中多环芳烃(PAHs)的时空分布,并通过构建结构方程模型和重力模型分析了驱动PAHs时空分布的社会经济因素.结果表明,不同地区沉积物中PAHs含量由高到低依次为：北部沿海>东北>东部沿海>南部沿海>黄河中游>长江中游>西南>西北.南部沿海、长江中游和东部沿海地区高分子量PAHs的比例相对较高,东北、西北、北部沿海和黄河中游地区低环PAHs的比例相对较高.沉积物中PAHs的含量从2000年起逐渐增加,2006年以后逐渐减少,且不同地区沉积物中PAHs含量到达峰值的年份有显著差异.经济发达地区沉积物中PAHs的含量在达到峰值后逐渐下降;发展中地区由于经济发展较快导致污染物积累较快.偏远或欠发达地区PAHs含量逐渐增加,但累积率低于发达地区.城市化和工业化对沉积物中PAHs的影响显著,其中对沉积物中PAHs分布影响最大的因素为经济发展.     

我国灾害经济统计评估系统及其指标体系的研究

灾害经济现象的统计与评估问题,是开展减灾系统工程及进行灾害经济学研究的重要前提。本文从系统科学的观点出发,分析了建立我国灾害经济系统评估系统的一般问题,同时还对我国灾害经济统计评估指标体系的设计进行了初步探讨.     

Monitoring the growth of American beech affected by beech bark disease in Maine using the Kalman filter

The effect of beech bark disease on tree growth was tracked using paired resistant and susceptible American beech trees in two locations in Maine. Within each site, the paired trees were chosen in close proximity and with similar morphological characteristics (e.g. stem diameter and crown class) to minimize environment effects in subsequent analysis. A Kalman filter approach was employed to analyse the yearly time-dependent mean differences between paired susceptible and resistant tree-ring widths using simple structural time series models in state space form. On one site, under the influence of a moderate maritime climate, stand dynamics is hypothesized to account for the 34 year difference in onset of decline of trees in codominant, versus those in the intermediate crown classes. The harsher winter conditions associated with the second, more northerly site and known to limit the insect component of the disease complex, are hypothesized to be more of a factor in the close (six year) difference in decline onset between the two crown classes on this site. Some strengths and cautions in the Kalman filter approach are discussed in relation to the analysis of time-dependent trends in tree-ring series.     

Inaccurate estimation of risk in second trimester serum screening for Down syndrome among women who have already had first trimester screening

Problems can arise in prenatal screening for Down syndrome when tests are performed in the first and second trimester and some women who have a negative first trimester test have a second trimester serum test. The second test result does not usually take account of the previous one being negative. Even if it does, it is often inaccurate. Using published data the extent of the error was examined. The age-specific risk of an affected pregnancy in such women will be lower than if no first trimester test had been performed. The distributions of the screening markers in affected and unaffected pregnancies will be different from those in unscreened women. If the appropriate age-specific risk and marker distributions are not used, error will arise. For example, a 35-year-old woman with nuchal translucency (NT), pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A (PAPP-A) and free β-human chorionic gonadotrophin (hCG) levels at the normal median would have a risk of 1 in 6500. If she then had the Triple Test with alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), unconjugated oestriol, and hCG levels of 0.7, 0.7 and 1.5 multiples of the median (MoM), respectively, her risk, ignoring the previous result, would be overestimated (1 in 95 compared with the correct estimate of 1 in 705). If the previous result was included, but the age-specific risk and second trimester marker distributions were not revised, her risk would be underestimated (1 in 820). If the correct age-specific risk and screening marker distributions were used, risk estimates would be accurate, but two tests would be less efficient than integrating all the screening information into a single test. The practice of offering second trimester serum screening to women who have already been screened is best avoided. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于OUR-HPR测量在线估计活性污泥合成PHA量

活性污泥工艺是一种具有重要应用前景的工业化生产聚羟基烷酸酯(PHA)的方法.当前PHA测量主要采用离线分析方法,时间滞后、分析操作复杂,不适于PHA生产过程控制.本研究基于活性污泥同时储存生长-溶解性微生物产物模型(SSAG-SMP),认为在饱食(外部有机碳基质充足)期间,聚羟基烷酸酯(PHA)的合成速率与氧利用速率(OUR)及氢离子产生速率(HPR)呈线性关系,建立了一种基于OUR-HPR在线测量数据估计活性污泥合成PHA量的方法.本研究对乙酸作基质的不同浓度情况进行模拟,结果表明OUR及HPR的PHA合成的氧气消耗分数(kPHA,OUR)和质子消耗分数(kPHA,HPR)为常数,分别是0.67和0.57.利用建立的线性关系来预测饱食期PHA含量,结果显示预测值与实测值较为吻合,说明提出的基于OURHPR测量在线估计PHA合成量的方法可行.     

首都水源地——洋河流域人为源多环芳烃(PAHs)排放清单估算及其影响分析

洋河流域位于京西北上风向,是北京重要水源地和生态保护屏障,我国北方典型的农牧交错带和生态脆弱敏感区,也是北京-张家口2022年冬奥会的申办地,具有极重要的战略地位.建立洋河流域大气PAHs排放清单,分析其可能来源及影响,通过气团后向轨迹辨识其区域PAHs传输途径,对于北京及张家口地区环境PAHs的污染控制具有重要的指导意义.本研究收集和分析了洋河流域大量工、农业生产和居民生活等相关数据资料,评估了流域各行业、各县市PAHs排放因子,单体排放量及其影响因素,通过气团后向轨迹模型分析了PAHs的传输轨迹.结果表明,洋河流域大气PAHs排放量为4.4×102t.从排放行业看,煤炭燃烧源、秸秆燃烧源是洋河流域大气PAHs的重要排放源,其贡献率分别为76%和16%.从排放地区看,宣化县的排放量最大,约49 t;其次分别为:兴和县、天镇县、怀来县、万全县,排放量分别约为:36、32、24和15 t.从排放谱看,低环(2~3环)与高环分子(4~6环)PAHs的排放量相差不大,分别约占PAHs排放总量的50%左右.洋河流域单位PAHs总排放量与各县市的工业生产总值(r=0.96,P<0.05)、居民收入(r=0.94,P<0.05)、人口密度呈正相关(r=0.92,P<0.05),与单位国土面积呈负相关(r=-0.9,P<0.05),与农业生产总值没有显著相关(r=0.026,P>0.01).流域内PAHs的较高排放与该地以煤炭为主的能源结构和较高的居民消费水平有关.基于气团后向轨迹模拟和洋河流域PAHs排放,可以推断洋河流域已成为PAHs的高污染风险区,通过西北气流可将流域高浓度的PAHs输送至北京,对北京的生态环境和人体健康造成潜在风险.     

基于信息扩散与自助法的旱灾风险评估模型──以安徽为例

旱灾风险管理是抗旱减灾的科学手段、干旱及旱灾研究的重要方向,定量评估旱灾风险是旱灾风险管理的核心内容。为降低各种不确定性因素影响下旱灾风险评估结果的误差,提高结果的可靠性,提出运用信息扩散法估计旱灾损失的超越概率,结合自助法的区间估计算法,建立基于信息扩散与自助法的灾害风险评估模型,用不同置信水平下旱灾损失对应超越概率的置信区间来反映旱灾风险。将该模型运用于安徽省农业易旱地区干旱灾害风险评估,计算并确定在置信水平为0.75时安徽省易旱地区的旱灾风险区间评估结果合理、可靠,可为抗旱规划提供科学的决策依据。     

几种不同方法估算农田表层土壤固碳潜力:以甘肃庄浪县为例

通过采样分析,结合80年代全国第二次土壤普查以及2006年耕地质量评价土壤有机碳数据,采用几种不同的估算方法对庄浪县农田表层(0~20cm)土壤固碳潜力进行了估算.结果表明:1最大值法和分类定级法(高)对同一地区农田土壤理想固碳潜力估算结果差异不大.最大值法估算庄浪县农田表层土壤理想固碳潜力为1.13 Mt,而分类定级法(高)估算的理想固碳潜力为1.09 Mt.2分类定级法(中)、饱和值法、加权法这3种固碳潜力估算方法求得庄浪县农田土壤现实固碳潜力分别为0.37、0.32、0.28 Mt,约为理想固碳潜力水平的1/3.3采用分类定级法(中)、饱和值法和加权法估算现实固碳潜力,有机碳密度增量依次为6.76、5.21、4.56 t·hm~(-2).按照庄浪县近30年农田表层(0~20 cm)土壤的固碳速率,达到现实固碳潜力水平大约需要24~34 a.4在县域尺度上估算现实固碳潜力,加权法优于饱和值法,饱和值法优于分类定级法(中);估算理想固碳潜力,分类定级法(高)优于最大值法.     

铁岭市线源车流量调查及污染物排放量的估算

通过对辽宁省铁岭市主要交通干线车流量的调查，估算出不同干线污染物的排放量，借以掌握线源污染物排放量，为环境管理提供依据。     

海河流域西三洼洪灾遥感监测背景信息系统的建立

为加强洪灾研究工作，做好灾前预评估、灾中跟踪评估、灾后详细评估工诈，应用地理信息系统（GIS）技术，建立起海河流域西三洼（东淀洼、文安茬、贾口控）洪灾遥感监测背景信息系统。