江西九连山区常绿阔叶林林冠截留量的估算

为了研究常绿阔叶林小流域的水分平衡,我们在江西九连山区进行了３ａ林外雨量、林内雨量和树干流量的观测,并据此进行了年林冠截留量的估算。观测结果表明,林冠截留率由一次降雨量为０．４～１ｍｍ的７８．１％逐步降低到一次降雨量为６０ｍｍ的３．４％～３．６％。一次降雨量大于６０ｍｍ时,林冠截留率基本稳定在这一百分数。１９８８、１９８９和１９９０年３ａ的年降水量在１７１８．５～２１１６．５ｍｍ之间。估算结果表明,年林冠截留量在３００～３４０ｍｍ之间,约为年降水量的１６％～１７．５％。     

中国土壤表层钙元素背景值的地域最佳估值研究

应用地统计学方法研究了中国土壤表层钙元素背景值的空间变异结构,并藉此进行了钙元素背景值的地域估值.结果表明,这种估值方法突出反映了钙元素在中国的宏观变化规律.与趋势面方法相比,具有明显优势.     

中国碳源排碳量估算办法研究现状

文章首先对碳源及其分类进行了归纳和总结,然后对我国碳源排碳量估算办法研究现状进行了概括.其间分别对能源类、工业类和土地利用相关碳源排放的估算模型进行了系统的阐述,着重讨论了碳源排碳量的测算办法,排碳量估算中的不确定性.文章最后,作者对目前研究中存在的问题以及未来的研究方向作了展望.     

海滨景观环境污染的经济损失估算

本文应用调查评价法理论，对烟台芝罘湾海滨景观遭受环境污染的程度，进行了经济损失估算。调查问卷中设计了一些问题，其结果给出了不同人群的支付愿望和经济损失价值。     

三峡工程对库区鸟类资源的影响评价

经1984—1986年的研究,在掌握三峡库区鸟类资源现状及特点的基础上对国内已建水库鸟类的变动情况进行考察,了解影响鸟类的各种因素,研究这些生态因子对鸟类群落的影响,采用统计学方法量化三峡工程对鸟类资源的影响程度,作出定性、定量的预断评价。 研究结果表明,兴建三峡水库必将引起适应原有生态环境的鸟类群落在组成、生态分布等方面的变化,一方面使珍稀鸟类、经济鸟类受到破坏,使已趋贫乏的森林鸟类更加贫乏;另一方面水禽资源将会增长。但总的影响是弊大于利。建坝150m和180m对不同群落的影响各异。高坝对森林和农田鸟类不利影响值均大于低坝30％;对水域鸟类的有利影响值,高坝为低坝的两倍。     

Static modeling of dynamic recreation behavior: Implications for prediction and welfare estimation

This paper examines the consequences of using a static model of recreation trip-taking behavior when the underlying decision problem is dynamic. Specifically we examine the implications for trip forecasting and welfare estimation using a panel dataset of Lake Michigan salmon anglers for the 1996 and 1997 fishing seasons. We derive and estimate both a structural dynamic model using Bellman's equation, and a reduced-form static model with trip probability expressions mimicking those of the dynamic model. We illustrate an inherent identification problem in the reduced-form model that creates biased welfare estimates, and we discuss the general implications of this for the interpretation of preference parameters in static models. We then use both models to simulate trip taking behavior and show that although their in-sample trip forecasts are similar, their welfare estimates and out-of-sample forecasts are quite different.     

Time-Dependent Instantaneous Mortality Rates from Multiple Tagging Experiments with Exact Times of Release and Recovery

Instantaneous natural mortality rates and a nonparametric hunting mortality function are estimated from a multiple-year tagging experiment with arbitrary, time-dependent fishing or hunting mortality. Our theory allows animals to be tagged over a range of times in each year, and to take time to mix into the population. Animals are recovered by hunting or fishing, and death events from natural causes occur but are not observed. We combine a long-standing approach based on yearly totals, described by Brownie et al. (1985, Statistical Inference from Band Recovery Data: A Handbook, Second edition, United States Fish and Wildlife Service, Washington, Resource Publication, 156), with an exact-time-of-recovery approach originated by Hearn, Sandland and Hampton (1987, Journal du Conseil International pour l’Exploration de la Mer, 43, 107–117), who modeled times at liberty without regard to time of tagging. Our model allows for exact times of release and recovery, incomplete reporting of recoveries, and potential tag shedding. We apply our methods to data on the heavily exploited southern bluefin tuna (Thunnus maccoyii).     

Fitting Data to Linear Combinations of Covariograms

We pursue a regression model for spatially-indexed data whose spatial correlation is determined by a linear combination of simple covariograms. The main interest lies in the estimation of the spatial parameters. As several common techniques appear ineffective for this setting, an algorithm is proposed to obtain parameter estimates and is assessed through simulation. It is found to provide greater stability than other methods of estimation. We discuss the influence of parametrization and site location on the efficacy of the estimation algorithms, and develop some guidelines as to the placement of sampling sites to improve the algorithm's performance. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

泥石流灾害的动力成因初探

本文从动力学成因角度分析泥石流灾害的形成机理，提出了泥石流起动的动力学临界条件通式和用实测资料分析确定泥石流起动临界判别式的方法。     

KALMAN FILTER ESTIMATION AND PREDICTION OF DAILY STREAM FLOWS: II. APPLICATION TO THE POTOMAC RIVER1

Results are reported from an application of the state space formulation and the Kalman filter to real-time forecasting of daily river flows. It is shown that the application of filtering techniques improves the overall forecasting performance of the model. As is true for most hydrologic systems, the model is not completely known. Therefore, the procedures pertaining to on-line parameter and noise statistics estimation, as presented in the first paper, are implemented. The example in this paper shows that these techniques also perform satisfactorily when applied to a real-world situation.