淘汰落后产能政策对我国重点工业行业二噁英类减排的影响

淘汰落后产能可以显著降低由工业热过程排放的非故意产生类持久性有机物染物.对该类政策带来的二噁英类污染物减排进行估算可以客观评价我国在履行《关于持久性有机污染物的斯德哥尔摩公约》所做出的努力和贡献.作者曾对2006~2010年间淘汰落后产能政策的减排影响作过分析,本研究拟在此基础上根据我国2010~2013年关停的落后产能情况,估算得出电力行业、焦炭行业和钢铁行业(含铁合金)由于关闭落后产能累计带来的二噁英类向大气减排(以I-TEQ计,下同)分别约86.13、133.94和78.78 g·a-1.除了上述提到的重点工业部门,关闭落后产能涉及到的水泥、电石、金属冶炼、造纸等行业也会由于政策的实施而减少二噁英类的排放,该研究为以后进行全面评估提供了思路和方法支持.     

Estimating non-native plant richness with a species-accumulation model along roads

Monitoring non-native plant richness is important for biodiversity conservation and scientific research. The species-area model (SA model) has been used frequently to estimate the total species richness within a region. However, the conventional SA model may not provide robust estimations of non-native plant richness because the ecological processes associated with the accumulation of exotic and native plants may differ. Because roads strongly dictate the distributions of exotic plants, we propose a species-accumulation model along roads (SR model), rather than an SA model, to estimate the non-native plant richness within a region. Using 270 simulated data sets, we compared the differences in performance between the SR and SA models. A decision tree based on prediction accuracy was created to guide model application, which was validated using field data from 3 national nature reserves in 3 different provinces in China. The SR model significantly outperformed the SA model when non-native species were restricted to the roadsides and the proportion of uncommon exotic species was small. More importantly, the SR model accurately estimated the non-native plant richness in all field sites with an error of <1 species per site. We believe our new model meets the practical need to efficiently and robustly estimate non-native plant richness, which may facilitate effective biodiversity conservations and promote research on non-native plant invasion and vegetation dynamics.     

A Bayesian-weighted approach to predicting the number of newly discovered rare species

In natural ecological communities, most species are rare and thus susceptible to extinction. Consequently, the prediction and identification of rare species are of enormous value for conservation purposes. How many newly found species will be rare in the next field survey? We took a Bayesian viewpoint and used observed species abundance information in an ecological sample to develop an accurate way to estimate the number of new rare species (e.g., singletons, doubletons, and tripletons) in an additional unknown sample. A similar method has been developed for incidence-based data sets. Five seminumerical tests (3 abundance cases and 2 incidence cases) showed that our proposed Bayesian-weight estimator accurately predicted the number of new rare species with low relative bias and low relative root mean squared error and, accordingly, high accuracy. Finally, we applied the proposed estimator to 6 conservation-directed empirical data sets (3 abundance cases and 3 incidence cases) and found the prediction of new rare species was quite accurate; the 95% CI covered the true observed value very well in most cases. Our estimator performed similarly to or better than an unweighted estimator derived from Chao et al. and performed consistently better than the naïve unweighted estimator. We recommend our Bayesian-weight estimator for conservation applications, although the unweighted estimator of Chao et al. may be better under some circumstances. We provide an R package RSE (r are s pecies e stimation) at https://github.com/ecomol/RSE for implementation of the estimators.     

Numerical simulations on the attenuation effect of a barrier material on a blast wave

This paper numerically modeled previous experimental results and quantitatively revealed the attenuation effect of a barrier material on a blast wave. Four fluids were considered in the present study: the detonation products, water, foamed polystyrene, and air. These fluids were modeled by Jones-Wilkins-Lee (JWL), stiffened gas, and ideal gas equations of state. A mixture of water and foamed polystyrene was used as a barrier to encircle a 0.1 kg mass of spherical pentolite, and the interface problem between the barrier and the blast wave was investigated. The simulation parameters were the radius and the water volume fraction of the barrier. To elucidate the effect of the barrier, we conducted two series of numerical simulations; one without a barrier, and another with a barrier of 50 or 100 mm in outer radius and 0–1 in the water volume fraction. Peak overpressure, positive impulse, and pressure history all agreed well with the previous experimental results. We focused on the energy transfer from high-pressure detonation products to other fluids. The sum of the kinetic energies of the detonation products and the barrier induced by the blast wave could quantitatively estimate the attenuation effect of the blast wave and was minimized when the water volume fraction was 0.5, as was the case in the previous experiment.     

Combining FAP,MAP and correlation analysis for multivariate alarm thresholds optimization in industrial process

In the real industrial process, alarm threshold optimization is an important part of alarm system rationalization. If the design of alarm threshold is unreasonable, it would result in nuisance alarms, among which the critical alarms are overwhelmed. In order to alleviate this phenomenon, we propose a method of multivariate alarm thresholds optimization to reduce the nuisance alarms. Firstly, causal relationship between process variables is constructed based on the time delay estimation method, thus we can determine the alarms propagation path and then select the optimized variables. Secondly, in order to guarantee both the process safety and correlation consistency, three factors - false alarm probability (FAP), missed alarm probability (MAP), and the correlation between the alarm information and process information – are combined to establish the objective function of the optimization process for the first time. Then, the optimal thresholds are obtained by the genetic algorithm. Finally, the validity and effectiveness of the developed method are illustrated by the Tennessee Eastman process.     

化粪池排口处土壤对典型农户生活污水氮素污染物的消减测算研究

原位采集太湖流域平原河网地区典型农户化粪池排口处的表层土壤及化粪池出水,人工模拟研究区域的典型降水(夏季30 mm·次-1、冬季5 mm·次-1)、气温(夏季27℃、冬季5℃)条件以及排污负荷进行室内模拟土柱实验,测算不同季节、不同天气过程(雨前7 d、雨天3 d、雨后7 d)化粪池排口处土壤对农村生活污水氮素污染物的消减率/增加率,并探讨其消减增加规律.结果表明,排污口土壤TN、NH+4-N消减率、NO-3-N增加率均存在显著的季节性差异(P<0.05);夏季TN消减率、NO-3-N增加率在不同天气过程(雨前、雨天、雨后)存在显著差异(P<0.01),而夏季NH+4-N消减率和冬季TN、NH+4-N消减率、NO-3-N增加率则无显著差异(P>0.05);因此,TN、NH+4-N消减率和NO-3-N增加率均需按季节进行划分,夏季TN消减率、NO-3-N增加率还需按天气过程进行划分,夏季雨前、雨天、雨后分别为38.5%、-25.0%、46.0%和478.1%、913.8%、382.0%,而夏季NH+4-N消减率和冬季TN、NH+4-N消减率、NO-3-N增加率则无需按天气过程进行划分,分别为91.5%、50.4%、85.5%和276.0%;夏季雨前、雨天及雨后TN消减率与NH+4-N消减率不相关,但与NO-3-N增加率呈显著负相关,冬季土壤中TN的稳定蓄积是冬季雨前、雨天及雨后TN消减率无显著性差异并保持较高水平的重要原因,且其与NH+4-N在土壤中的稳定蓄积密切相关.     

基于Tanks 4.0.9d模型的石化储罐VOCs排放定量方法研究

石化储罐VOCs排放是石化行业重要的VOCs排放源之一.为了掌握石化储罐VOCs的排放情况,研究了基于Tanks4.0.9d模型计算各种类型储罐VOCs排放量的方法,并对卧式固定顶罐、立式固定顶罐、内浮顶罐和外浮顶罐的VOCs排放量进行了实例计算.同时,探讨了在国内使用Tanks 4.0.9d模型时需要考虑的所在地气象数据、储罐密封情况、储存物质的参数选择及参数单位换算问题.Tanks 4.0.9d模型可以作为一种方便且准确性较高的石化储罐VOCs排放定量方法在国内推广使用.     

实测/预测辽河铬(Ⅵ)水生生物基准与风险评估

该研究对辽河流域重金属铬(Ⅵ)的水生生物毒性数据进行搜集与筛选,推导辽河流域铬(Ⅵ)的水生生物基准值,并对辽河流域25个采样点位采集水样,测定铬(Ⅵ)的环境暴露浓度,最后对辽河流域水生生物铬(Ⅵ)暴露的潜在风险进行评估.此外,采用美国环境保护署(US EPA)物种种间关系估算模型(ICE)对辽河流域物种毒性值进行预测,并对基于预测毒性值的水生生物基准进行推导.结果表明,辽河流域基于实测毒性数据的水生生物急性基准值(CMC)为17.73μg·L-1,慢性基准值(CCC)为12.15μg·L-1;ICE模型预测的辽河流域生物毒性值推导的CMC值为13.97μg·L-1,实测CMC值与预测值比较接近,表明ICE模型可应用于水生生物基准值的预测.铬(Ⅵ)的水质分析结果表明25个采样点位水体铬(Ⅵ)浓度较低,均达到GB 3838-2002地表水质标准中铬(Ⅵ)的Ⅰ类或Ⅱ类标准,水质状况良好;然而,在对水生生物的潜在风险方面,通过生态风险评估得出7月辽河流域25个点位中环境暴露值超过慢性基准CCC值的有7个,12月超过慢性基准CCC值的有6个,表明辽河流域个别点位铬(Ⅵ)暴露可能会对水生生物产生不可接受的风险.     

家具行业挥发性有机物治理成本及排污权交易价格估算

佛山市顺德区工业VOCs污染问题突出,以中小企业为主的家具行业排放是第二大来源(17%),因此,顺德区率先在广东省开展了家具行业VOCs排污权交易试点工作.本文以区内木质家具行业为例,研究了排污权交易定价方法,得到VOCs平均污染治理成本(5363.26元·t~(-1)·a~(-1))并将其作为排污权交易的初始价格,之后运用多级模糊综合评价法计算的地区调整系数(γ=1.47)进行修正,得到最终参考交易价格(7883.99元·t~(-1)·a~(-1)).该价格与2016年交易底价(8000元·t~(-1)·a~(-1))偏差较小(1.45%).本文还开发了内置核心算法的挥发性有机物排污权交易辅助定价工具,综合利用数据库中企业基本信息、挥发性有机物排放数据等,为排污权交易定价提供辅助决策服务.     

基于海绵城市视角的城市雨水湿地设计初探

为夯实城市雨水湿地设计的理论基础,针对我国目前城市雨水湿地设计理论不足的现状,基于海绵城市视角,对城市雨水湿地设计方法进行系统研究。根据城市雨水湿地与普通人工湿地的共性,借鉴人工湿地理论及技术,通过文献综合、理论分析、定量研究等方法,提出了城市雨水湿地设计思路。从设计的角度对城市雨水湿地选址、面积定量确定、湿地选型、工艺流程、基质选择、植物选择、景观设计等方面进行阐述。