城市能源碳排放估算方法探究

作为目前世界上最大的碳排放国家,中国在2015年巴黎气候变化大会上做出承诺,到2030年碳排放量要达到峰值并且单位GDP排放要在2005年水平上下降60%～65%.但现阶段中国碳排放数据主要集中在省级和国家层面,城市作为碳减排措施实施的主要区域,由于基础数据缺乏,长久以来没有完整的碳排放清单.为解决这一问题,本文构建了一套城市级CO_2排放估算方法.该方法从各省能源平衡表(EBT)出发,采取从省级到市级的比例分配方法,选取最为贴近城市碳排放的指标数据,对42个地级市2012年的能源消费型碳排放情况进行估算,并与中国高分辨率碳排放数据(CHRED)进行对比,发现差异均在10%以内,验证了该方法的准确性.同时揭示了此类自上而下的估算方法所带来的区域性差异,并且进一步分析了采用不同来源的化石燃料的排放因子所可能导致的不确定性,建议之后的研究在进行中国城市碳排放核算时采取最恰当的本地化化石燃料排放因子.本文为获得在时间尺度和空间尺度上均连续的中国城市碳排放数据提供了参考方法和合理思路,也能为在城市层面制定科学的碳减排措施提供可靠的数据支撑.     

雨水花园运行寿命分析与价值估算

雨水花园作为典型的低影响(LID)开发设施之一,在径流量削减和污染物净化方面起着重要作用.为探索雨水花园运行寿命和估算其功能价值,于2011年3月—2017年10月对西安理工大学校内3个雨水花园进行了16～40场不等的降雨监测.结果表明,雨水花园的径流量削减率和污染负荷削减率呈先增大后减小的趋势.结合污染负荷削减,提出了雨水花园"三阶段净化"概念—即净化增长期、净化稳定期和净化衰弱期,简称TSP概念,并绘制了P-F概念图.排水型和入渗型雨水花园各功能价值排序为:涵养水资源水质净化维持生物多样性调节气候提供美学景观;入渗型雨水花园综合价值和单位面积价值分别是排水雨水花园的4.16倍和4.84倍.     

GF-5高光谱遥感影像的土壤有机质含量反演估算研究

本文基于高光谱遥感影像对土壤有机质含量进行反演估算,以哈尔滨与兴安盟交界处的平原地表土壤为试验对象.首先,基于辐射和几何校正等预处理的高分五号（GF-5）高光谱遥感影像,依据五点采样法采集影像覆盖范围的地表土壤样本共100组,在实验室内进行理化分析等一系列处理获取样本土壤有机质含量数据.然后,运用偏最小二乘法建立高光谱影像土壤沙化指数、土壤退化指数、归一化亮度指数和土壤盐分指数反演土壤有机质含量的估算模型.比较基于原始反射率数据、一节微分反射率数据和4种土壤指数构建的反演模型的预测精度,通过65%的建模样本和35%的预测样本验证表明,反演模型中基于土壤指数建立的反演模型的预测验证精度最高,预测集验证中ρ为0.816,RMSE为1.7287.并将该反演模型运用到高光谱影像的土壤有机质含量的反演估算,实际测量的SOM与影像反演SOM含量变化趋势一致,相关性达到80.023%以上,验证了模型的反演估算精度.     

马斯京根洪水演算模型的改进--兼论其参数的蚁群算法率定

针对马斯京根洪水演算模型的近似性问题，用曲线积分法改进了原模型中时段流量的简单算术平均值法，并利用连续性空间优化问题的蚁群算法对改进的马斯京根洪水演算模型进行参数最优估计，使演算流量更加接近实际。     

APPLICATION OF PARAMETER OPTIMIZATION METHOD FOR CALIBRATING TANK MODEL1

ABSTRACT: Many automatic calibration processes have been proposed to efficiently calibrate the 16 parameters involved in the four‐layered tank model. The Multistart Powell and Stuffed Complex Evolution (SCE) methods are considered the best two procedures. Two rainfall events were designed to compare the performance and efficiency of these two methods. The first rainfall event is short term and the second designed for long term rainfall data collection. Both rainfall events include a lengthy no‐rainfall period. Two sets of upper and lower values for the search range were selected for the numerical tests. The results show that the Multistart Powell and SCE methods are able to obtain the true values for the 16 parameters with a sufficiently long no‐rainfall period after a rainfall event. In addition, by using two selected objective functions, one based on root mean square error and one based on root mean square relative error criteria, it is found that the no‐rainfall period lengths necessary to obtain the converged true values for the 16 parameters are roughly the same. The SCE method provides a more efficient search based on an appropriate preliminary search range. The Multistart Powell method, on the other hand, leads to more accurate search results when there is no suitable search range selected based on the parameter calibration experience.     

EVALUATION OF METHODS FOR ESTIMATING STREAM WATER QUALITY PARAMETERS IN A TRANSIENT MODEL FROM STOCHASTIC DATA1

ABSTRACT: In this study the estimation of parameters in water quality models represented by linear first order partial differential equations is investigated. Two sets of simulated input-output data, one with input noise and the other with output measurement error, were used. The parameters were estimated by a gradient technique (Bard's method) and a pattern search technique. The results indicate that the output measurement error significantly affects the values of parameter estimates as compared to the noise added to the input. Bard's method consistently gave results with a smaller sum of square value.     

运用模糊数学法对焚烧烟气处理方法进行综合评价

运用模糊数学法的理论对城市生活垃圾及特种垃圾焚烧烟气的各种处理方法进行综合评价,提出合理的处理方法。     

ASSESSMENT OF HYDRAULIC PROPERTIES IN AN UNCONFINED ALLUVIAL AQUIFER NEAR GRAND ISLAND,NEBRASKA1

ABSTRACT: A method is presented to analyze time-drawdown data from one or more observation wells for the calculation of four hydraulic parameters for unconfined aquifers: vertical hydraulic conductivity, horizontal hydraulic conductivity, storage coefficient, and specific yield. The hydraulic parameter results are further analyzed for reliability and the possible ranges of the actual parameter values. After verification using a theoretical example, the method was used to analyze pumping test data from 22 observation wells in an unconfined alluvial aquifer near Grand Island, Nebraska. Results indicate that this method can be used to efficiently calculate the four hydraulic parameters in this type of aquifer. The method can also identify the impact of measurement errors on the parameter estimates, and provide ranges of the actual parameter values. The parameter values calculated using this method were compared to those determined using other theories. It is found that this method is very useful for calculating the hydraulic properties from pumping test data and for analyzing the parameter reliability.     

基于遗传算法与人工神经网络相结合的玉米估产研究

在遗传算法 (GeneticAlgorithm )与误差反传 (BackPropagation)网络结构模型相结合的基础上 ,设计了用遗传算法训练神经网络权重的新方法 ,并对吉林省梨树县的玉米进行了估产研究 ,同时与BP算法和灰色系统理论模型进行了比较。经检验 ,计算值与实际值接近 ,并优于灰色理论模型 ,具有良好的预测效果 ,从而为农作物估产提供了新方法     

Bandwidth determination for kernel density analysis of wildfire events at forest sub-district scale

Forest fire is regarded as one of the most significant factors leading to land degradation. While evaluating fire hazard or producing fire risk zone maps, quantitative analyses using historic fire data is often required, and during all these modeling and multi-criteria analysis processes, the fire event itself is taken as the dependent variable. However, there are two main problematic issues in analyzing historic fire data. The first difficulty arises from the fact that it is in point format, whereas a continuous surface is frequently needed for statistically analyzing the relationship of fire events with other factors, such as anthropogenic, topographic and climatic conditions. Another, and probably the most bothersome challenge is to overcome inaccuracy inherent in historic fire data in point format, since the exact coordinates of ignition points are mostly unknown. In this study, kernel density mapping, a widely used method for converting discrete point data into a continuous raster surface, was used to map the historic fire data in Mumcular Forest Sub-district in Mu?la, Turkey. The historic fire data was transferred onto the digital forest stand map of the study area, where the exact locations of ignition points are unknown; however, the exact number of ignition points in each compartment of the forest stand map is known. Different random distributions of ignition points were produced, and for each random distribution, kernel density maps were produced by applying two distinct kernel functions with several smoothing parameter options. The obtained maps were compared through correlation analysis in order to illustrate the effect of randomness, choice of kernel function and smoothing parameter. The proposed method gives a range of values rather than a single bandwidth value; however, it provides a more reliable way than comparing the maps with different bandwidths subjectively by eye.